Chinese Economics Thread

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Millions of cases of a mild respiratory infection. How terrible. No one has ever dealt with that before, definitely not China in decades past. The government indeed has not set the GDP growth target for 2023 because the GDP growth target is set in March of each year; it is not set before the calendar year starts
nope. government has set average 5 percent growth target for next year. all local and provincial government have informed already.
Yes, there is indeed job growth in China but apparently, not fast enough such that there is still 18% youth unemployment in China.
18 percent unemployment rate is cherry picking stats. but the fact is China will create 12-13 million new jobs this year. overall unemployment rate matters.

Also, wrong. In 2020, there were 12 million births in China; in 2019 there were 14.65 million births and in 2018, there were 15.23 million births. 10.70 million babies being born means the birth rate is rapidly plunging by double digits each year
you are wrong here. read my massage again. i said as compared to previous year. 10.6 million babies were born in 2021.

The NBS doesn't have a surveyed rural unemployment rate so the true unemployment rate is not known.

doesn't matter. China's October unemployment rate stand at 5.5 %

China's youth unemployment rate is 18% which makes it the 2nd highest on the list, right after France. How is 20% high but 18% not high? You aren't comparing like with like - China's youth unemployment rate is extraordinarily high; China's unemployment rate writ large is pretty normal both compared to China's historical rates and compared to other countries
France have only 67 million people. population matters. China have more people than entire west..
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
I have multiple relatives working in healthcare here so whenever someone comes up and says COVID is gone in the US, I know immediately they're bullshitting. People want to believe COVID is over and will even go as far as massaging the official stats until it agrees with them. I've lost count of how many times they've done these sorts of manipulations. I would have more respect for them if they just came out with it and said the reality; that they don't really care about how many people die or live with life-long complications and that their minuscule ability to care about consequences has been exhausted.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Ahh yes, the same PISA that only counts Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and where Guangdong wasn't even allowed to participate. China's wealthiest provinces with 13% of the population is not the same probability sample as all of the United States. PISA scores are not comparable between the US & China.

7-9% of China's younger population has earned a 4-year STEM degree and 50% has earned any degree (2-yr or 4-yr); side-gig work is counted as employed work so neither explaination is satisifactory for explaining youth unemployment unless people are surviving on some magical pile of money while searching for a dream job (highly unlikely given China's income distribution)

Damage to economic growth is often indeed irreparable: capital formation compounds on prior capital formation, business and consumer expectations compound on prior expectations and labor market participation is often a tenuous path. Lower economic growth itself leads to higher mortality with worse nutrition and worse healthcare access.

So much conflict and hatred that 2022 US midterm turnout....dropped substantially. People have so much burning hatred that they can't be motivated to do the most effort free of political activities. Wow. Real impressed.

Pandemic is over, excess mortality in the US is gone. COVID cases are just replacing other causes of death for comorbid people

Nah, that's just tax arbitrage through Hong Kong, not real FDI
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so you are posting news from Bloomberg and Lyman stones..

what a clown show


Ray Liotta GIF | Gfycat
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
nope. government has set average 5 percent growth target for next year. all local and provincial government have informed already.
Which government? China hasn't set a 2023 GDP target.
18 percent unemployment rate is cherry picking stats. but the fact is China will create 12-13 million new jobs this year. overall unemployment rate matters.
No, it isn't. Subgroup employment and national employment/unemployment rates matter and youth unemployment rate is a perennial concern
you are wrong here. read my massage again. i said as compared to previous year. 10.6 million babies were born in 2021.
No dispute about the number of births. You claimed it went up. They absolutely did not
doesn't matter. China's October unemployment rate stand at 5.5 %
You cited youth unemployment in multiple countries and so we compare youth unemployment to youth unemployment; of which China has one of the highest rates in the world. China's true unemployment rate is unknowable since the NBS Survey doesn't cover 1/3 of China's economically active population (i.e., rural people)
France have only 67 million people. population matters. China have more people than entire west..
Yes, and? There is no correlation between size and youth unemployment rate and even a few years ago, China had high single digit youth unemployment. Now China has high double digit youth unemployment. China's size did not change substantially in 2 years but the unemployment rate jumped substantially; even for China, saying that there is a large youth cohort can't explain it (nor is there even a good theoretical basis for it - increasing cohort populations increase demand (which leads to employment) and increase supply at the same time, the net effect is indeterminate)
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Ahh yes, the same PISA that only counts Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and where Guangdong wasn't even allowed to participate. China's wealthiest provinces with 13% of the population is not the same probability sample as all of the United States. PISA scores are not comparable between the US & China.
Oh, ok, let's make it comparable. Let's find America's 4 strongest states and compare them then. This video, at 1:58, shows Massachusets being the highest in the US; it is comparable to Canada. After that, we have 5 states that are comparable to Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Iceland, and Australia. You can cut out the 2 weakest whichever they are. Which one of those 6 named countries comes close to China? None.
7-9% of China's younger population has earned a 4-year STEM degree and 50% has earned any degree (2-yr or 4-yr); side-gig work is counted as employed work so neither explaination is satisifactory for explaining youth unemployment unless people are surviving on some magical pile of money while searching for a dream job (highly unlikely given China's income distribution)
Side-gig counts if it's reported. Who goes around reporting their side-gig cash?
Damage to economic growth is often indeed irreparable: capital formation compounds on prior capital formation, business and consumer expectations compound on prior expectations and labor market participation is often a tenuous path.
No, actually, damage to economic growth is always reversed when the source of damage is gone. When it's safe to come out of COVID 0, the damage can be reversed. For any country you wish to cite permanent damage to, like Japan, it is because the sources of weakness remain.
Lower economic growth itself leads to higher mortality with worse nutrition and worse healthcare access.
LOL China's life expectancy just surpassed America's. Also, people dying in the millions causing massive shut downs causes recessions, which American knows about.
So much conflict and hatred that 2022 US midterm turnout....dropped substantially. People have so much burning hatred that they can't be motivated to do the most effort free of political activities. Wow. Real impressed.
That's called a collapse of the democratic system where people no longer feel that there is a point in voting. As for hatred,
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Pandemic is over, excess mortality in the US is gone. COVID cases are just replacing other causes of death for comorbid people
Actually, no.
The chart shows 2022 excessive deaths topping every year except 2020 and 2021 with the author himself, along with Dr. Fauci of course, saying that the winter could spike it. You have to learn to read charts, you see. And unlike the one I cited, the one that you cited shows only 2020, 2021 and 2022, which allows no conclusion on what is "normal." The US suffered an insane level of COVID deaths in peak times so the drop this year isn't really assuring.
Nah, that's just tax arbitrage through Hong Kong, not real FDI
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Gonna cite a couple more lines down then:

"The services sector absorbed the lion’s share of this amount, accounting for RMB 662.1 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7 percent. Meanwhile, utilized foreign capital in the high-tech sector grew 33.6 percent year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services growing 43.1 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

Utilized foreign capital originating from South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year). Meanwhile, the regions with the highest growth rate of utilized foreign capital were western China, growing 43 percent year-on-year, followed by central China (27.6 percent year-on-year), and eastern China (14.3 percent year-on-year)."
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
so you are posting news from Bloomberg and Lyman stones..
Bloomberg literally was just a graph of MOFCOM data; Lyman Stone was literally a calculation of excess mortality. It's as apolitical as you can get
Really so US is still damaged from the 2008 financial collapse? Ok I see. Yeah in the US case, it definitely was irreparable.
Indeed. Recessions scar economic output substantially.
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Prove it please. Otherwise anyone can make those statements.
The article links it - the increase in FDI is nearly all from Hong Kong (which is clear evidence of tax arbitrage) and FDI from the US/EU/Japan are flat in nominal terms, declining in real terms - and it is all data from MOFCOM
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Which government? China hasn't set a 2023 GDP target.
nope. they have already set the target

No, it isn't. Subgroup employment and national employment/unemployment rates matter and youth unemployment rate is a perennial concern
doesn't matter. overall unemployment rate matter the most. which is pretty normal.

No dispute about the number of births. You claimed it went up. They absolutely did not
10.6 million babies were born in 2021. you are talking about 2020.

You cited youth unemployment in multiple countries and so we compare youth unemployment to youth unemployment; of which China has one of the highest rates in the world. China's true unemployment rate is unknowable since the NBS Survey doesn't cover 1/3 of China's economically active population (i.e., rural people)
Rural China contributed only 14.6% in overall China's GDP.

Yes, and? There is no correlation between size and youth unemployment rate and even a few years ago, China had high single digit youth unemployment. Now China has high double digit youth unemployment. China's size did not change substantially in 2 years but the unemployment rate jumped substantially; even for China, saying that there is a large youth cohort can't explain it (nor is there even a good theoretical basis for it - increasing cohort populations increase demand (which leads to employment) and increase supply at the same time, the net effect is indeterminate)
doesn't matter. coz China creating 12-13 million jobs yearly. youth unemployment rate is exaggerating here.
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
10.6 million babies were born in 2021. you are talking about 2020.
In 2020, there were ~12 million births. In 2021, there were 10.6 million births, that's called down

Rural China contributed only 14.6% in overall China's GDP.
So if rural China has ~30% of the people and ~15% of the output, that suggests unemployment is far higher in rural China and so the surveyed URBAN unemployment rate of 5.5% is biased downwards compared to the nationwide unemployment rate.
doesn't matter. coz China creating 12-13 million jobs yearly. youth unemployment rate is exaggerating here.
The NBS exaggerated the youth unemployment rate because...
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
The article links it - the increase in FDI is nearly all from Hong Kong (which is clear evidence of tax arbitrage) and FDI from the US/EU/Japan are flat in nominal terms, declining in real terms - and it is all data from MOFCOM

Bloomberg article says this thing as well ..

"The services sector absorbed the lion’s share of this amount, accounting for RMB 662.1 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7 percent. Meanwhile, utilized foreign capital in the high-tech sector grew 33.6 percent year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services growing 43.1 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

Utilized foreign capital originating from South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year). Meanwhile, the regions with the highest growth rate of utilized foreign capital were western China, growing 43 percent year-on-year, followed by central China (27.6 percent year-on-year), and eastern China (14.3 percent year-on-year)."

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Foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 14.4% year on year to nearly 1.09 trillion yuan in the first 10 months of 2022, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday..

South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year)
 
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