Chinese Economics Thread

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Just matching the US in GDP growth (which is always reported in real terms) means the US lead widens because the US is starting off from the larger spot.

I agree; I was providing additional context to the number on federal government spending to extend it to all government/public spending


Potentially, the PISA only covers Beijing/Shanghai/Jiangsu/Zhejiang or 13% of China's population. There isn't enough evidence to claim any direction unless the PISA covers all provinces in China. If you use measures such as the % of the population with a 4 year degree, the US is ahead of China (but of course, problematic since a 4-yr degree may not mean the same in content mastery)
If you have incorrect starting data then all conclusions will be incorrect. China has been widening the lead for awhile. You must account for inflation/pricing before evaluating an economy, because China does not conduct business using 1 to 1 RMB to dollar. Without doing that math first, the results are useless because they don't tell us about real world conditions.

PISA is one performance marker, but we can also look at the total amount of research papers etc. Basically students' minds are like a black box. We can measure the money that goes in, and the results that come out. If the results that come out are reasonable enough, then that is an indicator that the money that went in was a reasonable amount.

I do not believe Chinese education is among the most resource rich nor outstandingly best globally. Then again, the US one is absolutely neither as well.
 

xlitter

Junior Member
Registered Member
So around ~52,000 deaths each year; the population of Germany is 83 million so the probability of dying from the COVID-19 is 0.06%; which would be mainly very old people with substantial comorbidities.

Vaccines cause COVID to fade into the background; if you see US mortality data, you would notice that US all-cause mortality is back to normal after vaccinations; therefore even if COVID is the cause of death, it is simply replacing what would be another cause of death that would happen anyway. China's already mass vaccinated, all COVID restrictions can be safely droppe
The German Minister of Health has more credibility than you! Don't reply me anymore, you can't convince me!
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
No, it won't. COVID is just a flu with vaccinations and every other country can manage.
it is. China cannot afford millions of cases per day. you have literally no idea how big China is. stop behaving like a typical western guy. have you ever been to China ?

The government hasn't set it yet and even if they did; if they continue with zero COVID, they won't reach it.
Government has set the target. go and google

Then why is the youth unemployment rate so abnormally high, compared to both China's historic levels AND other countries? STEM degree attainment didn't suddendly increase in 2022 nor did the number of people in China. It is clearly due to the fanatical zero COVID and the fanatical business crackdowns and the longer youth unemployment goes on for; the more labor market scarring, the more the birth rate plunges and the fewer skills/experience/work intuition that will be developed by younger cohorts
sdfsdffsd.jpg

you are wrong about youth unemployment. it has nothing to do with zero covid and fanatical business crackdowns. birth rate will start improving from 2023. this year 10.70 million babies will born more than previous year. better to zip your mouth if you know nothing about China.

You've conveniently ignored the United States
Youth Unemployment Rate in the United States is 8.30% .. disaster

18% is indeed, very bad. It's one of the highest in the world
no its not. just cherry picking stats. when your urban unemployment remains under 5.5%

Unemployment Rate in youth =

USA - 8.30%
South Korea - 7.8%
Taiwan - 13.06%
France - 20.09% .. HAHAHAHAHAHAH
UK - 10.40%
Germany - 7%
Australia - 10.80%
Canada - 11%

Japan - 4.36%. only Japan doing really well

look at the performance of developed world. don't you have shame. your government can't even manage 50-60 million people. Chinese government managing 1.4 billion.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
COVID is a mild flu. Millions of cases of flu spread out over many months have no will impact on middle-aged production workers (you can see this as US industrial production soared during the delta/omicron waves)

No, it won't. COVID is just a flu with vaccinations and every other country can manage.
These two phrases really show you don't know what your talking about. Are you a health professional? I highly doubt it because that phrase just shows your ignorance. Covid has higher propensity to affect the lungs. Also many people are getting the flu and covid together. Our hospitals are filled with patients needing care especially the pediatric hospital.

The US is not reporting covid mortalities anymore btw but their hospitals are filled and overflowing.
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
The German Minister of Health has more credibility than you! Don't reply me anymore, you can't convince me!
I took the German Health Ministry's data exactly as stated; if you assume 1K COVID mortalities per week, 52K per year and 83 million people in Germany; there is a 0.06% probability of dying from COVID in any given year in Germany
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
it is. China cannot afford millions of cases per day. Government has set the target. go and google
Millions of cases of a mild respiratory infection. How terrible. No one has ever dealt with that before, definitely not China in decades past. The government indeed has not set the GDP growth target for 2023 because the GDP growth target is set in March of each year; it is not set before the calendar year starts
Yes, there is indeed job growth in China but apparently, not fast enough such that there is still 18% youth unemployment in China.
you are wrong about youth unemployment. it has nothing to do with zero covid and fanatical business crackdowns. birth rate will start improving from 2023.
So why has youth unemployment been particularly high only this year and not in any previous year and why is it uniquely high in China? And on what basis/evidence do you say that birth rates will increase in 2023?
this year 10.70 million babies will born more than previous year. better to zip your mouth if you know nothing about China.
The youth entering the labor force this year were born 18/22 years ago. Also, wrong. In 2020, there were 12 million births in China; in 2019 there were 14.65 million births and in 2018, there were 15.23 million births. 10.70 million babies being born means the birth rate is rapidly plunging by double digits each year
Youth Unemployment Rate in the United States is 8.30% .. disaster
If 8.30% in the United States is a disaster; what does that make China's youth unemployment rate at 18%?
no its not. just cherry picking stats. when your urban unemployment remains under 5.5%
The NBS doesn't have a surveyed rural unemployment rate so the true unemployment rate is not known.
Unemployment Rate in youth =

USA - 8.30%
South Korea - 7.8%
Taiwan - 13.06%
France - 20.09% .. HAHAHAHAHAHAH
UK - 10.40%
Germany - 7%
Australia - 10.80%
Canada - 11%

Japan - 4.36%. only Japan doing really well

look at the performance of developed world. don't you have shame. your government can't even manage 50-60 million people. Chinese government managing 1.4 billion.
China's youth unemployment rate is 18% which makes it the 2nd highest on the list, right after France. How is 20% high but 18% not high? You aren't comparing like with like - China's youth unemployment rate is extraordinarily high; China's unemployment rate writ large is pretty normal both compared to China's historical rates and compared to other countries
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Yep. Public spending on elementary and secondary education in the US is ~$771bn which is ~3.6% of US GDP; in China, total elementary and secondary education spending was $3.7 trillion yuan (~$570bn) or ~3.8% of China's GDP.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Oh damn! I thought the US wasn't trying. They're actually spending more money on a quarter the number of students, and still producing bad results compared to China? What happened? Are the Chinese just too smart or something?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China rank: 1
USA rank: 25
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"The young ones don't want to work" has been a complaint from businesses since the beginning of time. In any case, it's not particularly believable. Unemployment excludes those that are not looking for work (i.e., sick, in school, etc). There are 121 million people born in China between 1998 (aged 22) and 2004 (aged 18); the unemployment rate is 18% which means 22 million of them can't find jobs. The article says that there are 30 million unfilled openings so unless 2/3rds of the youth cohort prefers to have no job over a job - preferences can't explain it very well
Yeah it doesn't matter if you don't find it believable because you don't want it to be true. The article documents it and it's fairly obvious logic that if you've earned a masters in mechanical engineering, you don't want to wash dishes.

On top of that, post COVID, the economy has turned much towards a side-hustle economy where less young people want to work for someone else but rather found thier little niche ways to make money. I'm not saying I prefer that to proper employment, especially in STEM areas, but it's not that number of people sitting home fiddling with their fingers while starving. These side-gigs often evolve into formal businesses as well. Overall GDP growth with inflation taken into account is much more indicative of and economy's health rather than official employment numbers.
COVID is a mild flu. Millions of cases of flu spread out over many months have no will impact on middle-aged production workers (you can see this as US industrial production soared during the delta/omicron waves)

It won't be on track from 2023 onward because zero COVID is still being the policy that is implemented and the longer zero COVID is implemented, the more irreparable harm you create from people that leave the labor market, declining birth rates and business bankruptcies.

Not enough jobs for the growing working-age population
You're hilarious. Westerners with millions of COVID deaths and economies in recession telling China, "Open up! It's just a flu! You're losing money, the most precious thing in the world! We're in a recession but YOU'RE losing money with your stupid life-saving crap! It's causing irreparable money loss; money gone is gone forever but people dying is temporary!"

LOL The only irreparable thing I've seen here is the level of conflict and hatred in the US after Donald Trump got elected. Everything economy recovers quickly.
So around ~52,000 deaths each year; the population of Germany is 83 million so the probability of dying from the COVID-19 is 0.06%; which would be mainly very old people with substantial comorbidities.

Vaccines cause COVID to fade into the background; if you see US mortality data, you would notice that US all-cause mortality is back to normal after vaccinations; therefore even if COVID is the cause of death, it is simply replacing what would be another cause of death that would happen anyway. China's already mass vaccinated, all COVID restrictions can be safely droppe
Yeah, no. We'll just take a look at ongoing deaths in the West, and we'll decide based on that. You don't need to worry about China; we'll do that. The West can manage its COVID policies and China will manage ours, taking cues from what's happening there. The West can be our guinea pig for when to open up.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"Fauci, in a radio interview Thursday, said the pandemic has clearly eased since last winter, but deaths, which average more than 2,600 per week, remain far too high. At the same time, the new omicron variants are knocking out key tools used to protect the most vulnerable."
Just one in twenty people at any given moment are under random lockdowns at substantial fiscal cost (which could be much better suited to address actual public health problems like maternal & infant mortality, hepatitis, stroke, tuberculosis or tobacco usage). No big deal. Today it is Shanghai, tomorrow it is Guangzhou, the next day it is Shijizhuang, or Kashgar or Guiyang or whatever the random city generator says it is. No one can do business, travel or consume with any level of confidence if those are the policies that are put in place
No one except all these people increasing investment in China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"In the period from January to August 2022, actual use of foreign capital reached RMB 892.7 billion, an increase of 16.4 percent from the same period the previous year. In dollar terms, that is US$138.4 billion, an increase of 20.2 percent from the same period in 2021. "
 
Last edited:

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China rank: 1
USA rank: 25
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Ahh yes, the same PISA that only counts Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and where Guangdong wasn't even allowed to participate. China's wealthiest provinces with 13% of the population is not the same probability sample as all of the United States. PISA scores are not comparable between the US & China.
Yeah it doesn't matter if you don't find it believable because you don't want it to be true. The article documents it and it's fairly obvious logic that if you've earned a masters in mechanical engineering, you don't want to wash dishes. On top of that, post COVID, the economy has turned much towards a side-hustle economy where less young people want to work for someone else but rather found thier little niche ways to make money. I'm not saying I prefer that to proper employment, especially in STEM areas, but it's not that number of people sitting home fiddling with their fingers while starving. These side-gigs often evolve into formal businesses as well. Overall GDP growth with inflation taken into account is much more indicative of and economy's health rather than official employment numbers.
7-9% of China's younger population has earned a 4-year STEM degree and 50% has earned any degree (2-yr or 4-yr); side-gig work is counted as employed work so neither explaination is satisifactory for explaining youth unemployment unless people are surviving on some magical pile of money while searching for a dream job (highly unlikely given China's income distribution)
You're hilarious. Westerners with millions of COVID deaths and economies in recession telling China, "Open up! It's just a flu! You're losing money, the most precious thing in the world! We're in a recession but YOU'RE losing money with your stupid life-saving crap! It's causing irreparable money loss; money gone is gone forever but people dying is temporary!"
Damage to economic growth is often indeed irreparable: capital formation compounds on prior capital formation, business and consumer expectations compound on prior expectations and labor market participation is often a tenuous path. Lower economic growth itself leads to higher mortality with worse nutrition and worse healthcare access.
LOL The only irreparable thing I've seen here is the level of conflict and hatred in the US after Donald Trump got elected. Everything economy recovers quickly.
So much conflict and hatred that 2022 US midterm turnout....dropped substantially. People have so much burning hatred that they can't be motivated to do the most effort free of political activities. Wow. Real impressed.
Yeah, no. We'll just take a look at ongoing deaths in the West, and we'll decide based on that. You don't need to worry about China; we'll do that. The West can manage its COVID policies and China will manage ours, taking cues from what's happening there.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Fauci, in a radio interview Thursday, said the pandemic has clearly eased since last winter, but deaths, which average more than 2,600 per week, remain far too high. At the same time, the new omicron variants are knocking out key tools used to protect the most vulnerable.
Pandemic is over, excess mortality in the US is gone. COVID cases are just replacing other causes of death for comorbid people
No one except all these people increasing investment in China
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
"In the period from January to August 2022, actual use of foreign capital reached RMB 892.7 billion, an increase of 16.4 percent from the same period the previous year. In dollar terms, that is US$138.4 billion, an increase of 20.2 percent from the same period in 2021. "
Nah, that's just tax arbitrage through Hong Kong, not real FDI
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Top