Chinese Economics Thread

[sunnymaxi]

COVID is a mild flu. Millions of cases of flu spread out over many months have no will impact on middle-aged production workers (you can see this as US industrial production soared during the delta/omicron waves)

don't agree with you. China can't afford millions of cases in single day. health system will collapse. this is the reason why government keep pressing for zero covid policy.

It won't be on track from 2023 onward because zero COVID is still being the policy that is implemented and the longer zero COVID is implemented, the more irreparable harm you create from people that leave the labor market, declining birth rates and business bankruptcies.

China have ease some of COVID rules. government set 5 percent growth target in 2023.

Not enough jobs for the growing working-age population

enough jobs for the working age population. 12 to 13 million new jobs in 2022.

How are high numbers of STEM graduates supposed to be correlated with high unemployment? Do South Korea and Taiwan have high youth unemployment? China graduates a proportionally similar number of STEM graduates to the United States (both ~7-9%); does the United States have high youth unemployment?

In 2021, the unemployment rate of people aged 15 to 29 years old in South Korea reached around 7.8 percent

youth unemployment rate in Taiwan increase to 13.06% in August

with the population of 51 million and 23 million respectively. LAMOOO

The NBS doesn't publish a full employment survey but the unemployment rate remains low due to tightness in older age brackets but youth unemployment is still very bad because it hurts birth rates and it hurts your future workforce being able to acquire necessary skills and experience

nope. China's youth unemployment is not very bad

 

[xlitter]

I said lockdowns *in* Guangzhou which this most certainly is. Banning transit effectively ends all economic activity. Baiyun is the largest district in Guangzhou. Plus; it's not just Guangzhou; it's all over urban China with random lockdowns which severely restrict business when all movement in or out is banned - you effectively turn China into 8 million different customs entities; each of which have their own laws on trade and migration (i.e., a patchwork of bans that always change and for which no one is able to predict with any certainty what will happen in the next few hours/days/weeks/months)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594835505744695298

This is Shanghai Yangpu, not Guangzhou

 

[hans_r]

This is Shanghai Yangpu, not Guangzhou

Indeed, that is why I wrote: Plus; it's not just Guangzhou; it's all over urban China with random lockdowns which severely restrict business when all movement in or out is banned - you effectively turn China into 8 million different customs entities; each of which have their own laws on trade and migration (i.e., a patchwork of bans that always change and for which no one is able to predict with any certainty what will happen in the next few hours/days/weeks/months)

 

[xlitter]

COVID is a mild flu. Millions of cases of flu spread out over many months have no will impact on middle-aged production workers (you can see this as US industrial production soared during the delta/omicron waves)

Please stop spreading fake news! covid is no flu! This is the twitter of the German Minister of Health, 1,000 deaths per week due to covid 2019 in Germany, face the reality instead of indulging in false news!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594745425998880768

 

[hans_r]

don't agree with you. China can't afford millions of cases in single day. health system will collapse. this is the reason why government keep pressing for zero covid policy.

No, it won't. COVID is just a flu with vaccinations and every other country can manage.

China have ease some of COVID rules. government set 5 percent growth target in 2023.

The government hasn't set it yet and even if they did; if they continue with zero COVID, they won't reach it.

enough jobs for the working age population. 12 to 13 million new jobs in 2022.

Then why is the youth unemployment rate so abnormally high, compared to both China's historic levels AND other countries? STEM degree attainment didn't suddendly increase in 2022 nor did the number of people in China. It is clearly due to the fanatical zero COVID and the fanatical business crackdowns and the longer youth unemployment goes on for; the more labor market scarring, the more the birth rate plunges and the fewer skills/experience/work intuition that will be developed by younger cohorts

In 2021, the unemployment rate of people aged 15 to 29 years old in South Korea reached around 7.8 percent

youth unemployment rate in Taiwan increase to 13.06% in August

with the population of 51 million and 23 million respectively. LAMOOO

You've conveniently ignored the United States but in any case, since the youth unemployment rate is lower in South Korea and Taiwan, there is no positive correlation between STEM degree attainment and unemployment; I'm not sure how the population matters since as it relates to labor markets, both demand and supply increase simulatenously; there is no correlation between population and unemployment

nope. China's youth unemployment is not very bad

18% is indeed, very bad. It's one of the highest in the world

 

[xlitter]

Indeed, that is why I wrote: Plus; it's not just Guangzhou; it's all over urban China with random lockdowns which severely restrict business when all movement in or out is banned - you effectively turn China into 8 million different customs entities; each of which have their own laws on trade and migration (i.e., a patchwork of bans that always change and for which no one is able to predict with any certainty what will happen in the next few hours/days/weeks/months)

Please don't repeat certain words. You don't understand, and you don't understand how big China is! 95% of China is living a normal life! Now the lockdown has been down to individual buildings!

 

[sunnymaxi]

Please don't repeat certain words. You don't understand, and you don't understand how big China is! 95% of China is living a normal life! Now the lockdown has been down to individual buildings!

typical mindset of western people. enjoy

 

[hans_r]

Please stop spreading fake news! covid is no flu! This is the twitter of the German Minister of Health, 1,000 deaths per week due to covid 2019 in Germany, face the reality instead of indulging in false news!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594745425998880768

So around ~52,000 deaths each year; the population of Germany is 83 million so the probability of dying from the COVID-19 is 0.06%; which would be mainly very old people with substantial comorbidities.

Vaccines cause COVID to fade into the background; if you see US mortality data, you would notice that US all-cause mortality is back to normal after vaccinations; therefore even if COVID is the cause of death, it is simply replacing what would be another cause of death that would happen anyway. China's already mass vaccinated, all COVID restrictions can be safely droppe

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545065471497617408

 

[hans_r]

Please don't repeat certain words. You don't understand, and you don't understand how big China is! 95% of China is living a normal life! Now the lockdown has been down to individual buildings!

Just one in twenty people at any given moment are under random lockdowns at substantial fiscal cost (which could be much better suited to address actual public health problems like maternal & infant mortality, hepatitis, stroke, tuberculosis or tobacco usage). No big deal. Today it is Shanghai, tomorrow it is Guangzhou, the next day it is Shijizhuang, or Kashgar or Guiyang or whatever the random city generator says it is. No one can do business, travel or consume with any level of confidence if those are the policies that are put in place

 

[xlitter]

Just one in twenty people at any given moment are under random lockdowns at substantial fiscal cost (which could be much better suited to address actual public health problems like maternal & infant mortality, hepatitis, stroke, tuberculosis or tobacco usage). No big deal. Today it is Shanghai, tomorrow it is Guangzhou, the next day it is Shijizhuang, or Kashgar or Guiyang or whatever the random city generator says it is. No one can do business, travel or consume with any level of confidence if those are the policies that are put in place

We believe in the country, as long as the country does not give up, we will not give up either! The country will protect ordinary people like us. Chinese people decide for themselves. We don’t need outsiders to tell us what to do!