Chinese Economics Thread

ACuriousPLAFan

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Aww nuts they're onto us.
China at present is the largest gold producer in the world at around 370 tons in 2021.

China at present has the 6th largest gold reserves in the world at 1958.3 tons in 2022.

Is China's current gold stockpile enough? If not, how long would it take to fill up the required amount?
 

sunnymaxi

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Zero COVID is putting a substantial strain on economic growth in China (through declining retail sales/consumption/business investment) and on youth employment in China (youth unemployment is still in high double digits in China)
do you know how Chinese system works ?

JP Morgan need to stop clown show. this is the basic problem of western experts. they know shit about China.

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Chinese economy will grow 5 percent in 4th Quarter. beats all expectations and highest ever growth in single quarter in 2022. if all goes well.

in first 9 months of this year, China created 10.01 million new jobs. a new record

China created 10 million jobs in first 9 months of 2022.jpg
 

sunnymaxi

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China at present is the largest gold producer in the world at around 370 tons in 2021.

China at present has the 6th largest gold reserves in the world at 1958.3 tons in 2022.

Is China's current gold stockpile enough? If not, how long would it take to fill up the required amount?
bro. don't watch China with the eyes of Western media.

China have the largest gold reserves in the world with a distance margin according to China Gold Association.

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BEIJING - China's gold reserves have grown every year for 15 consecutive years, reaching 14,727.16 tons by 2020, according to a yearbook issued by China Gold Association.

Despite factors including the COVID-19 epidemic and policies related to mining rights, the country's gold output still ranked the top in the world, standing at 365.35 tons in 2020, the report reads.

This represents a decline of 14.88 tons, or 3.91 percent lower from the same period in 2019, according to the CGA report.

However, noting an evident decelerating pace in the contraction of gold production in 2020 compared with the previous years, China's gold production industry's transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development is showing sound momentum.

The total traded volume of gold in the Chinese market reached 95,500 tons in 2020, accounting for 13.72 percent of gold transactions in the global market.

The yearbook published by the CGA provided analytical report on the development and future trend of China's gold industry, covering the entire industry chain including gold exploration, mining, processing and investment.
 

Biscuits

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do you know how Chinese system works ?

JP Morgan need to stop clown show. this is the basic problem of western experts. they know shit about China.

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Chinese economy will grow 5 percent in 4th Quarter. beats all expectations and highest ever growth in single quarter in 2022. if all goes well.

in first 9 months of this year, China created 10.01 million new jobs. a new record

View attachment 102237
At this point China does not even have to grow faster than USA per se, just matching their growth (which is easy af given that US when adjusted for inflation barely grows anything) will let China widen the lead.

I'm not sure about 5% growth but just 3-4% is a lot when considering the size of the economy. No one will grow faster in absolute terms.

As for debate about how much is spent on education, high spending =/= better education. High spending can also be wasted due to corruption, bureaucratic hurdles and so on.

570 billion USD is just a mere 1.9% of China's total gdp, but that alone is sufficient to drive healthy school results, a large graduating class etc.

Educational ability doesn't only come from money into schools. Money also needs to be invested in infrastructure, healthcare, social safety etc. While China doesn't invest as much directly into schools, its clear that the overall state support package creates a well educated younger generation that would be able to rival any other countries with top tier education in the world.
 

hans_r

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do you know how Chinese system works ?
You don't need an be an expert in politics to know that unpredictable lockdowns are bad for the economy.

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Chinese economy will grow 5 percent in 4th Quarter. beats all expectations and highest ever growth in single quarter in 2022. if all goes well.
Growth in 2022 is substantially lower than it was in 2018 or 2019 and will most certainly miss China's goal of 5.5%.
in first 9 months of this year, China created 10.01 million new jobs. a new record
Yet the youth unemployment rate is still 18%.
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hans_r

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At this point China does not even have to grow faster than USA per se, just matching their growth (which is easy af given that US when adjusted for inflation barely grows anything) will let China widen the lead.
Just matching the US in GDP growth (which is always reported in real terms) means the US lead widens because the US is starting off from the larger spot.
As for debate about how much is spent on education, high spending =/= better education. High spending can also be wasted due to corruption, bureaucratic hurdles and so on.
I agree; I was providing additional context to the number on federal government spending to extend it to all government/public spending

its clear that the overall state support package creates a well educated younger generation that would be able to rival any other countries with top tier education in the world.
Potentially, the PISA only covers Beijing/Shanghai/Jiangsu/Zhejiang or 13% of China's population. There isn't enough evidence to claim any direction unless the PISA covers all provinces in China. If you use measures such as the % of the population with a 4 year degree, the US is ahead of China (but of course, problematic since a 4-yr degree may not mean the same in content mastery)
 

hans_r

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One of the reason for high unemployment is that Chinese youth doesn't want to do job at factory. China is a manufacturing hub so it has alot of jobs in manufacturing but if youth only want to do sitting desktop job in AC room then you would always have huge unemployment problem in a manufacturing oriented country like china.

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"The young ones don't want to work" has been a complaint from businesses since the beginning of time. In any case, it's not particularly believable. Unemployment excludes those that are not looking for work (i.e., sick, in school, etc). There are 121 million people born in China between 1998 (aged 22) and 2004 (aged 18); the unemployment rate is 18% which means 22 million of them can't find jobs. The article says that there are 30 million unfilled openings so unless 2/3rds of the youth cohort prefers to have no job over a job - preferences can't explain it very well
 

sunnymaxi

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You don't need an be an expert in politics to know that unpredictable lockdowns are bad for the economy.
lockdown actually good for Chinese manufacturing. China can't afford millions of cases ..

Growth in 2022 is substantially lower than it was in 2018 or 2019 and will most certainly miss China's goal of 5.5%.
coz of second quarter lockdowns overall GDP this year will grow only 3.5 percent. you cannot compare 2022 with 2018-19. Chinese economy will back on track from 2023 onward

Yet the youth unemployment rate is still 18%.
doesn't matter. as long as China creating millions of new jobs. with each passing year STEM graduates numbers increasing so its normal to have unemployment rate is high. China's urban unemployment rate is still under 5.5%.
 

hans_r

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lockdown actually good for Chinese manufacturing. China can't afford millions of cases ..
COVID is a mild flu. Millions of cases of flu spread out over many months have no will impact on middle-aged production workers (you can see this as US industrial production soared during the delta/omicron waves)
coz of second quarter lockdowns overall GDP this year will grow only 3.5 percent. you cannot compare 2022 with 2018-19. Chinese economy will back on track from 2023 onward
It won't be on track from 2023 onward because zero COVID is still being the policy that is implemented and the longer zero COVID is implemented, the more irreparable harm you create from people that leave the labor market, declining birth rates and business bankruptcies.
doesn't matter. as long as China creating millions of new jobs.
Not enough jobs for the growing working-age population
with each passing year STEM graduates numbers increasing so its normal to have unemployment rate is high.
How are high numbers of STEM graduates supposed to be correlated with high unemployment? Do South Korea and Taiwan have high youth unemployment? China graduates a proportionally similar number of STEM graduates to the United States (both ~7-9%); does the United States have high youth unemployment?
China's urban unemployment rate is still under 5.5%.
The NBS doesn't publish a full employment survey but the unemployment rate remains low due to tightness in older age brackets but youth unemployment is still very bad because it hurts birth rates and it hurts your future workforce being able to acquire necessary skills and experience
 

hans_r

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More zero-COVID in China which severely restricts inter-provincial trade, travel and investment; effectively turning China into 31 different customs entities (of course, more because each municipality and each county often have their own policies), each with their own unpredictable policies on what is allowed and what isn't: this will deter a lot of travel, consumption and investment and crater business confidence
 
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