Chinese Economics Thread

[hans_r]

Bloomberg article says this thing as well ..

"The services sector absorbed the lion’s share of this amount, accounting for RMB 662.1 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7 percent. Meanwhile, utilized foreign capital in the high-tech sector grew 33.6 percent year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services growing 43.1 percent and 31 percent, respectively.

Utilized foreign capital originating from South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year). Meanwhile, the regions with the highest growth rate of utilized foreign capital were western China, growing 43 percent year-on-year, followed by central China (27.6 percent year-on-year), and eastern China (14.3 percent year-on-year)."

That quote is nowhere in the Bloomberg article and it should be obvious because the was written for a US audience and yet constantly quotese in RMB terms

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Foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland, in actual use, expanded 14.4% year on year to nearly 1.09 trillion yuan in the first 10 months of 2022, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday..

South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year)

Ahh funny. The SCIO article jumps between investment (which has portfolio and foreign direct) components and FDI fairly freely when it comes to country of origin; in any case, as MOFCOM's data makes clear, excluding Hong Kong (which is not FDI but instead tax arbitrage); FDI in China is flat in nominal terms and declining in real terms. The other giveaway is a substantial lack of newly announced FDI projects into China by anyone other than German auto firms

 

[SanWenYu]

So if rural China has ~30% of the people and ~15% of the output, that suggests unemployment is far higher in rural China and so the surveyed URBAN unemployment rate of 5.5% is biased downwards compared to the nationwide unemployment rate.

Please stop talking about macro economy in China If you do not know that farming still produces much lower GDP per capita in China.

 

[manqiangrexue]

@hans_r Hi. Hello. I wrote this to you and got no reply despite you replying Sunny 3 times in a row. I'm feeling left out and also it's a particularly slow day at work. I want my old chew toy; you're back here again from the dead for the 80th time; you know the drill. Don't be chicken; let's go.

Chinese Economics Thread

Millions of cases of a mild respiratory infection. How terrible. No one has ever dealt with that before, definitely not China in decades past. The government indeed has not set the GDP growth target for 2023 because the GDP growth target is set in March of each year; it is not set before the...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[hans_r]

Please stop talking about macro economy in China If you do not know that farming still produces much lower GDP per capita in China.

Disparities that large are rarely due to sectoral differenes in productivity

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Really so US is still damaged from the 2008 financial collapse? Ok I see. Yeah in the US case, it definitely was irreparable.

Prove it please. Otherwise anyone can make those statements.

This new iteration of @Sleepystudent argues like Peter Zeihan. Yo! @hanjian whatever your new name is, are you practicing your recycled arguments again? Aren't you tired? You're a masochist and maybe into dominatrix.

 

[hans_r]

@hans_r I wrote this to you and got no reply despite you replying Sunny 3 times in a row. I'm feeling left out and also it's a particularly slow day at work. I want my old chew toy; you're back here again from the dead for the 80th time; you know the drill. Let's go.

Chinese Economics Thread

Millions of cases of a mild respiratory infection. How terrible. No one has ever dealt with that before, definitely not China in decades past. The government indeed has not set the GDP growth target for 2023 because the GDP growth target is set in March of each year; it is not set before the...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Not sure exactly what you are talking about but since I've addressed most of your points in other threads, I'll point out that
1. The 2018 US midterm elections and 2020 US general election had fairly normal turnout; expecting it to suddenly drop in 2022 would be specious if it was disillusionment. In any case, survey-based measures of political hatred are indeed hate but revealed preferences on political hate are...lacking. If people can't take the effort to do the most effort free of political activities as they did not do in 2022 or in historically higher frequencies than they did in the 1960s/1970s (regarding midterms and general elections), they must be fairly content with where their current circumstances.
2. 2022 mortality should be up anyway because of population growth; you misread the graph as well, the y-axis was excess deaths, not total deaths so the tweet shows indeed, that 2022 mortality is normal. COVID is simply replacing other comorbidities as the cause of death, not serving as a new role

 

[Fedupwithlies]

1. The 2018 US midterm elections had extremely high turnout and so did the 2020 US general election;

If people can't take the effort to do the most effort free of political activities, they must be fairly content with where their current circumstances.

Why people shouldn't bother arguing with sleepy.

 

[sunnymaxi]

So if rural China has ~30% of the people and ~15% of the output, that suggests unemployment is far higher in rural China and so the surveyed URBAN unemployment rate of 5.5% is biased downwards compared to the nationwide unemployment rate.

i have told you before. you seriously lacking information related China. you don't know much about rural regions. same repeat old shit from western media. macro economy in China is totally different what you think. farmers , small and medium enterprises in rural areas , night life , street vendors , shopkeepers.

i can educate you about China if you want..

 

[Fedupwithlies]

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OECD excess deaths by week. Up to week 38 of 2022, the US is averaging about 12-15% excess deaths from expected average. The OECD from which these numbers come from believe its predominately due to covid.

This indicates covid is still pretty deadly.

As an aside, its unfortunate Australia's data isn't up to date. US health trends on a yearly basis tend to follow Australia's and in fact thats what a lot of analysists in the US look at to predict what's coming up. We could've made more predictions for more recent weeks but uh, Australia seems to have disappeared. Oh well.

 

[Abominable]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557380087590387712

Pandemic is over, excess mortality in the US is gone. COVID cases are just replacing other causes of death for comorbid people

Nah, that's just tax arbitrage through Hong Kong, not real FDI

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Well if it isn't sleepystudent posting out of context graph....

Why not post it with actual mortality rates rather than "excessive mortality rates"

Mortality rates have remained high despite COVID going. You can fudge numbers by reclassifying what excessive mortality means, but that doesn't change the fact people are still dying. Life expectancies will continue to drop in the western world, and public health officials will be "surprised".