There were 2.9 million deaths in the US in 2019 so taking the 15% upper bound at face value; that would imply excess mortality of ~435K to do a cost-benefit analysis. Not all excess mortality leads to a ban on activity; there were 60K car accident deaths in China but China isn't banning cars, for example
Chinese Economics Thread
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No bro, they're not surprised at all. They've been constantly, non-stop almost yelling in politician's ears about this shit.
Remember when covid first came out, and China locked down, it was the politico's who were all "China's hiding their true deaths!" and like, almost every health advisor in the media was "no, they're not. they're doing exactly what we should be doing".
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Then you need to improve your level
And I've rebutted every one showing why you're wrong.
And I'll answer once again; lack of voting with documented increase in hatred shows errosion of trust in the democratic system. Did you not understand that?
LOLOL WAT? So now you're admitting that mortality is up, but pretending it's population growth?? How hard do you need to be pushed before you claim that 2020 and 2021 were population growth too? LOL You don't see the 2022 line clearly above other years with continuous white space in between?
As a matter of fact, there are excess deaths in total, but then there is excess death that COVID contributed. The baseline is over 50K a month in 2019, the last COVID-free year. If the intent is to show the effects of COVID, that should be the 0 line but it is put way in the middle because the author wants the difference to look small. Taken that into consideration, the chart reads roughly 3K excess deaths per week compared to when there was no COVID in 2019... Hey! That's pretty much what Dr. Fauci said!
No, I understood it perfectly, as I demonstrated above. Excess deaths after COVID are still higher than the baseline of excess deaths pre-COVID and that is not normal... for competent countries. For the US, that's probably normal now in the worst way.
You can't read a chart that clearly shows lingering excess deaths higher after COVID. You can't read black and white words from Dr. Fauci. So it's no surprise that you don't know what I'm talking about.
And where's all the other stuff I wrote? Where's PISA? Where's the FDI increase argument? This is why I do a point-by-point rebuttal to you while you write a little mess of repeated wrong things that you wish were true to me. Do a point-by-point. You come back here despite getting banned over and over again cus you wanna be a part of the conversation so bad; don't run away from the conversation then.
Chinese Economics Thread
Millions of cases of a mild respiratory infection. How terrible. No one has ever dealt with that before, definitely not China in decades past. The government indeed has not set the GDP growth target for 2023 because the GDP growth target is set in March of each year; it is not set before the...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
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Still not comparable. All those countries and US states have high school for all children of appropriate age. China does not have universal high school. Controls for PISA's focus on BSJZ and attainment on those that attend high school explain the disparity. Plus, given that China's scores jumped by a few hundred after swapping Guangdong with Zhejiang; it's a very fast descent once you get outside the wealthy provinces. Furthermore, since US students don't have any incentive to do well on their PISA exams, their scores are biased downwards substantially from their true abilities. Once you give US students money to do well on their PISA exams, their scores improve dramatically but that was not the case with students in China. All in all, the PISA scores are simply indeterminate as to the true educational quality in China
All payments in China are done through mobile wallets; its reported whether they want it to be or not.
No, it isn't. Recessions tend to push trend growth lower in nearly every recession because you reduce labor force participation, college attainment and capital stock formation
Doesn't make my argument directionally incorrect
Not if all the COVID deaths are clustered in people that aren't of working age
Wow, more survey-based approaches to measuring political discontent which just never appear anywhere in turnout numbers. In any case, pretending political polarization has any large effect on economic growth is lolcow - the US had incredible political polarization and economic growth in the 1950s and 1960s
Deaths always increase in the winter. That is not unusual.
If you read the calculation, it just took the CAGR of the weekly growth rates in death from 2014 to 2019 and projected that onto 2022 and the graph is of excess deaths which in 2022 are back to normal. Of course 2022 is going to have some white space, because 2020 and 2021 aren't normal stacked lines, they are way above due to COVID without vaccines; that isn't an issue anymore because now COVID has a vaccine
Remove Hong Kong from the data and FDI ex-Hong Kong is flat.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You're basically like, "Nope, they have different systems so it's not comparable." LOL Yeah, they have different systems and China's is better. Any of China's top 4 beats any of America's top 4. Competition is a top vs the top thing. This is more representative of success than a total average.
Jumped by 80 points. Still beat the US soundly. 10th place China the second term it competed to 31st place USA. Swap a player out, China's number 1. Wonder what 2022 brings. Your entire argument is based on seeing data of China being superior while pretending that the unseen data shows the opposite.
Provide data, not imagination. If you did America's top 4 and swapped one of the top with one of the bottom, the impact would be very significant as well.
Oh, Chinese people don't use cash? You never seen Chinese cash before? You can't pay your friend or family member without the mobile wallet transfer being counted as business so there's no way around it? LOL So little you know of a country you have such a big mouth on...
That's the definition of a recession, yes. Do you know what happens after? Usually a recovery once the forces that caused the recession are over.
Secondly, tell that to the US. They keep saying that recessions are normal and healthy. China's not in recession; has nothing to do with us.
It just means that by your logic, it shows once again, that China made the right choice.
The US shut down because of COVID. There are young people with permanent damage from getting COVID. Do you know anything about COVID aside from what the far right media was telling you as the bodies filled up reefers outside American hospitals? LOL China's not a country that's so desperate that it wants to sacrifice old people but apparently, America is. And it didn't work.
How would you measure it? By voting turnout? How would you differentiate hatred from lack of confidence in the system? Especially after the fiasco where Trump convinced people that it's all rigged? Survey results are direct but you don't want to believe them; you want to believe an indirect and highly flawed assumptive measure simply because that measure says what you want while the direct surveys don't.
I didn't connect it with the economy; I did it to show you what irreparable actually means.
Most people don't consider June to August as winter.
OK I see we're gonna have to use numbers to go against the "Just pretend that any amount of white space is normal from population growth" attempt.
US population growth was 1% in 2020 and 0.1% in 2021 (basic Google for source). Chart shows 2019 baseline in August around 53K. In 2022 August, it's about 56K. That's 5.7% growth in excess deaths despite a 1.1% growth in population... Oh, that's right, and Dr. Fauci said it's still at 2.6K excessive from the CDC data.
So remove it and show it. And even if Hong Kong is used, what does it matter? It ended up in China, as the article states.
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75% of China has a high school diploma or equivalent so the test mean scores are China's best 75% as compared to all of the United States' population *and* with measurement error that biases America's scores downwards. Simple fact of the matter is that drawing statistical inferences from PISA scores is not meaningful or insightful
Guangdong is still quite wealthy compared to other Chinese provinces and it still dropped 80 points so indeed.
Nah: the total amount of cash in circulation is known as well as the total amount of bank deposits (and cash is fairly rare in China in any case) so the total magnitude of any tax evasion can be approximated with pretty good accuracy. And even assuming everything you are saying is true, having substantial informal employment a la Latin America is bad - it shows a complete lack of market and political institutions necessary to support business activity in the economy.
It's applicable in China as well. Growth rates in China have slowed considerably and the moving averages of China's growth rates point in only one direction: down.
Nah; it doesn't. Old-age population health doesn't matter and the decline in US life expectancy was due to higher age-specific mortality rates at non-working age populations. The US chooses to focus on improving quality-adjusted years of life by not being fanatical about zero-COVID and focus on issues like tuberculosis mitigation and tobacco cessation.
It does. US GDP levels are back onto their pre-COVID path (unlike in China) and the prime-age workforce participation rate is as high as ever.
Surveys measure what people say. People say a lot of things; what people do shows what they prioritize under limited time constraints. If people claim to hate the other political party so much but go on about their daily lives and don't bother to even take the most elementary steps to showcase their political opinions; well, what much more does it mean outside of them liking to whine to pollsters? In any case, you know its not a "lack of confidence in the system" since registered republican turnout in 2022 was pretty high; registered democrat turnout crashed and registered independent turnout was pretty normal. Even assuming that what you said is true: it is again, still irrelevant: the 1950s and 1960s saw multiple assassination attemps on presidents and senators and much higher turnout in elections and the US economy grew smoothly
The tweet literally just takes a comprenhsive annualized growth rate and extrapolates it out to 2022. It's a fairly simple calculation which shows excess deaths are gone.
Wrong. The Census Components of Population Change from where the 0.1% derived from was a July 2020 - July 2021 measure. CY21 had a population growth rate of 0.6% (). Meanwhile, China will have its population decrease either this year or in the next few years as births continue to plunge (and plunge harder than ever before due to zero-COVID and cultural factors) and life tables for older people start ticking.
Wrong population reference frame: younger cohorts are smaller in number than older cohorts and mortality is highly age-specific. Use the growth in the older population as the proper reference
because the "FDI" from Hong Kong isn't FDI in any sense of the term outside of on technicalities; the FDI is tax arbitrage and tax evasion.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You think that those 4 provinces represent 75% of China?? Why are you so ignorant?
Acually, they represent something like 15%, however it would be wrong to assume that they even represent the best of China. Hubei and Shandong are missing. That they even let Guangdong participate in 2015 despite them performing far worse on national exams shows these provinces weren't just picked for the top. Shandong kids are known for the highest scores in all of China, self-proclaiming that kids from Beijing are retarded because their test questions look like sample questions in Shandong.
And, like I said, international competition and innovation is a top-vs-top competition. Those 4 provinces have 180 million people and they beat America's cream of the crop Massachussets. This shows China's future innovative power and that's what it's all about.
What would that be?
Oh, math, science, reading scores are not meaningful! LOLOL Sounds like what a certain demographic of the US says to "explain" why thye have the worst test scores in every state but are totally not stupid.
Apparently, wealthy doesn't mean smart. Shandong kids score far higher in national tests and they were not asked to compete.
Wow, that paragraph meant nothing. You know the amount of cash in circulation so you know who's evading taxes??? LOL You run a side hustle fixing computers taking in only cash and spending it in cash but the government knows how much tax is in the country so they know you are evading taxes?
You see only down? Your ophthalmologist should be shot LOL This is China's recovery line since the start of COVID from the World Bank. It's literally showing you that you don't know what "irreparable" means.
Yeah it does. You just said that economic performance goes hand in hand with healthcare status. Increased life expectancy is a measure of healthcare level. The following is a different matter.
In the age of information, older people do matter and they matter a lot as experts and professors are all of singificant age. If they die, become stupid, or retire early, that's a big loss. You're thinking of a country of factory workers and farmers where old people don't matter. Besides, China is a humane country and to us, our elders matter a lot. America can throw everything under the bus to compete with us but we remember who we are, what our principles are, and outperform them anyway.
It's due to people dying from COVID and America's healthcare collapse during the pandemic. Here's something to remember: when an 85 year old dies, he doesn't do much to the life expectancy average, but when a 55 year old dies, he does. And America's just went down with COVID. Life expectancy is an all-inclusive number regardless of cause.
The US just had a recession, another one coming and that's pre-COVID. China's not pre-COVID yet and we don't have any recession.
LOLOLOL Look at you trying to explain away what people are saying. It's hilarious.
Republicans: We hate Democrats.
Democrats: We hate Republicans.
Sleepy: No no no, they don't hate each other. They just like to whine. People say a lot of things; it doesn't count! Let's do a weird illogical extrapolation from voting turn-out to see if they hate each other.
Dems and Reps: Yeah, we hate each other than that's the only thing we agree on.
Sleepy: NO YOU DON'T!! IF YOU DID, YOU'D VOTE MORE!
Logic fail. How does that show that it's not a lack of confidence just because lass democrats showed up? How would you interpret it? Republicans hate Democrats but not the other way around?
Are you unable to read? I've already told you that it's not connected with the economy but it shows you what irreparable actually is.
And what calculation would that be? I just showed you excess deaths far out-stripping population growth. What's your culculation?
I'm not even gonna bother checking that. I'll just give it to you. 5.6% excess death growth vs 1.6% population growth. White space. Faucci's works. You can't run away.
Puahahaha, you used this dude's charts; I used this dude's charts. You said excess deaths are gone; I showed that mathematically, they are still there. And now you want to look at some other age-specific charts like the total charts you referred to don't count anymore.
1. Are you literate???
"Utilized foreign capital originating from South Korea saw the fastest growth rate, up 58.9 percent from the same period the previous year. This was followed by Germany (30.3 percent year-on-year), Japan (26.8 percent year-on-year), and the UK (17.2 percent year-on-year). Meanwhile, the regions with the highest growth rate of utilized foreign capital were western China, growing 43 percent year-on-year, followed by central China (27.6 percent year-on-year), and eastern China (14.3 percent year-on-year)."
2. Even from your Bloomberg article, it's still money from countries outside of China going into China, through Hong Kong, which is the same. Nowhere on it does it mention tax evasion.
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Stop it bro, you're beating him up like a pulp he's going to come up with an even more hillarious rebuttal.
No. 75% of China has a high school diploma and not everyone in China is allowed to go to high school; that is not the case in the United States - the PISA scores which report mean scores in BSJZ and Massachusetts would be those that are only allowed to go to high school in BSJZ vs all Massachusetts teenagers.
Read the study. American students don't take low stakes tests seriously: when you pay them to perform well, their scores increase substantially. The same effect was not observed in China - performance in Shanghai high schools was constant whether students were being paid or not.
take a moving average (especially since 2020/2021 had COVID weirdness). The trend line goes only in one direction. Down
healthcare =/= public health interventions (including retarded ones such as zero COVID).
Yes, life expectancy is a weighted average of compounded age specific mortality rates. Higher mortality rates in economically unproductive populations = meh.
Take the 2019 Article IV reports for the US and China. China's 2022 GDP is below the 2019 forecast level; the United States' is at the 2022 forecast level
A student says he really wants to pass a class but never shows up to class, never turns in any homework and oversleeps every exam but will swear up and down that they REALLY want to pass. Does he really want to pass the class? Same concept applies to politics: they hate the other party so much, they are willing to do anything except actually take even the most rudimentary of political actions to express such "hate".
Even if we assume the US has excess deaths, so what? You don't ban everything that causes excess mortality - no country bans cars and no country bans tall buildings. Zero COVID is a fanatical policy where the economic costs are far more negative than the slight (hypothetical) increase in quality-adjusted life years
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
OK, you are ignorant again on China. Everyone is allowed to go to high school in China. If you can't afford it, the government will. If you don't want to, that's another story.
First of all, if we're talking BSJZ, then why are use using China's 75%? Those are modernized places and not the average, unfortunately. Secondly, what is the point of comparing all teenagers rather than teenagers who went to school? The ones that go to school are the ones that determine a nation's future. China's BSJZ has a higher sheer number and a higher average in that sheer number. This is probably your stupidest argument yet. In addition to you not showing a substantially higher high school attendance rate in MA compared to BSJZ, even if it were assumed to be true, the situation would still be way more Chinese students counted on a way higher average among those counted. There's nothing that would swing in favor of the US.
Read what study? You didn't cite jack shit.
No, you said irreparable damage. If it goes up again, that's not irreparable damage. Take my link and drag the years out; China's still going up with COVID being a blip. Even the US with its multiple recessions dones't just go down in one direction.
Healthcare collapse was caused by America's retarded, "It'll go away like a miracle" policy causing so many people to die that the life expectancy dropped. Zero COVID is what kept China out of the recessions the entire West had to suffer as well as preserving lives.
Yeah, you had to have a lot of people die that were way younger than the average for it to go down. Old professor/scientist's way more productive than young construction worker. Your argument < meh.
Take what?? You can't cite things? What forecast level? Who did the forecast? Real life, real economy with recessions vs no recessions is where I'm at.
Was the student too "sleepy?" LOL Here's the caveat; if the thinks that he's too stupid to pass the class anyway or if the teacher is out to get him and will fail him anyway, he will not make an effort. Then you ask him if he wanted to succeed and he says yes, but you call him a liar because you can't let his free answer ruin your image of what you want to believe.
That's your free choice for your country. We Chinese believe in saving lives and it's none of your business. Western countries paid the price in millions of deaths on top of multiple recessions; we Chinese don't want to pay that price. And the only reason you want to convince us is because it hurts you to see so many of your people dead at your mistakes but so very few of ours. Your misery wants company but China will not be your company. It pisses you off all day long. There is no other reason for you to want China to undo Zero COVID so badly. You don't sound convincing; you sound desperate... over an issue that you shouldn't even care about and that's pathetic.
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