Chinese Economics Thread

AF-1

Junior Member
Registered Member
To me, the biggest test of Xi's new government is whether it implements a nationwide property tax. My working theory previously was that this was something Xi wanted to do but was impeded by other factions and special interests. Now that theory will be put to the test: If he's still hesitant and doesn't at least introduce a plan to phase in property taxes, I'll know that this is something he's personally cautious about and my theory will be invalidated.

Property taxes - no matter their political difficulty - will be enormously beneficial for China. It will treat the pathologies of the real estate market at the root, it will open up a vast new revenue stream for local governments, and most importantly, it will bring home prices down. High housing prices is the number one impediment to Chinese families having more children, and the tax could even be structured to exempt families with two or more children.
Alongside applying 40 hours working week, without that any other measures would have highly limited impact of birth rate.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Doubtful that Xi would want to implement property taxes at the moment when the housing market is contracting. The government puts a halt to an expansion of property taxes to more cities just sometime ago.

I do agree that some forces and interests prevent and delay the implementation and expansion of property taxes. However, national property taxes would need to wait until the sales of properties stabilized.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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It should have been the headline in every American and Western newspaper, but it wasn't. While the data is tentative, it's important to understand what this signals. The previous prediction was that life expectancy in China would surpass that of the US around 2027. The process was accelerated by the tragic US management of the pandemic, which resulted in a drop of about 2.26 years in life expectancy and more. of 1 million dead. On the one hand, US life expectancy returns to rates close to the mid-1990s. In addition to the pandemic, there is an evident fraying of the social fabric that will have an impact on social indicators.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Foreign trade is another surprising area of China's economic geography. In 2021, China's denominated imports and exports were 6.05 trillion dollars. Let's take a comparative view.

First, it reveals exponential growth. In 2013, China's foreign trade reached US$4 trillion for the first time. The US exported in 2021, 2.5 trillion and imported 3.39 trillion dollars. While the US deficit was $861.4 billion, the Chinese surplus was $676 billion in 2021. That speaks volumes, from the relative decline of the US to the Trade War.

For those who think that the Chinese economy is driven by foreign trade, they may be deeply mistaken. It is not and still has been decreasing the share of foreign trade in GDP since 2006, when it reached 64%. Since then, it has been steadily declining, reaching 35% in 2020.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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According to the projection of the IMF, the US ends 2022 with 22.9 trillion dollars of GDP and China, 17.4 trillion dollars. But in purchasing power parity (PPP), China has 27.2 trillion and the US has 22.9 trillion dollars.

Chinese GDP in PPP corresponds to the sum of the 3rd to 7th places (India, Japan, Germany, Russia and Indonesia). It is also worth noting the geoeconomic weight of Chinese provinces. In 2021, Guangdong's GDP exceeded $1.92 trillion, surpassing Italy, Canada and South Korea. Jiangsu's GDP has passed the 1.80 trillion mark; Shandong reached 1.29 trillion; Zhejiang to 1.09 trillion; and Henan at 0.93 billion. The five Chinese provinces listed above would rank among the 18 largest economies in the world. In fact, Shanghai's GDP in 2021 alone reached 630.4 billion dollars.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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China has long held the 1st place in the world population ranking. However, its estimated population of 1.42 billion is expected to be surpassed this year by India. A quick look at the population dimensions of the provinces is enough to understand the complexity.

Despite the reduced birth rate, population growth added more than 75 million inhabitants to the country's contingent - or almost a Germany, with 83 million, the most populous in Europe.

In fact, the 5 largest provinces in China exceed the population of Germany: Guangdong with over 126 million, Shandong with 102 million, Henan with 99 million, Jiangsu with 85 million and Sichuan with 84 million. The largest Chinese province, Guangdong, would rank 11th in the world, equivalent to Japan.

The map above illustrates "how many countries fit in China" and thus the scale of its challenges. Just think of the demands for employment, transportation, housing, etc. Or in demand for goods and services - such as garbage collection. It is no trivial task.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
To me, the biggest test of Xi's new government is whether it implements a nationwide property tax. My working theory previously was that this was something Xi wanted to do but was impeded by other factions and special interests. Now that theory will be put to the test: If he's still hesitant and doesn't at least introduce a plan to phase in property taxes, I'll know that this is something he's personally cautious about and my theory will be invalidated.

Property taxes - no matter their political difficulty - will be enormously beneficial for China. It will treat the pathologies of the real estate market at the root, it will open up a vast new revenue stream for local governments, and most importantly, it will bring home prices down. High housing prices is the number one impediment to Chinese families having more children, and the tax could even be structured to exempt families with two or more children.
While I agree with you, property taxes will have to wait.

The real estate market is already collapsing, no need to kick it to the abyss. Lets wait for it to stabilise or even show some growth and then property taxes can be implemented.
 
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