Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

supercat

Major
ZeEa5KPul said:
To me, the biggest test of Xi's new government is whether it implements a nationwide property tax. My working theory previously was that this was something Xi wanted to do but was impeded by other factions and special interests. Now that theory will be put to the test: If he's still hesitant and doesn't at least introduce a plan to phase in property taxes, I'll know that this is something he's personally cautious about and my theory will be invalidated.

Property taxes - no matter their political difficulty - will be enormously beneficial for China. It will treat the pathologies of the real estate market at the root, it will open up a vast new revenue stream for local governments, and most importantly, it will bring home prices down. High housing prices is the number one impediment to Chinese families having more children, and the tax could even be structured to exempt families with two or more children.
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Yes, besides reining in real estate speculation and increasing the availability of affordable housing, it will also help to fund the national healthcare system, which is supposed to be established by 2030. It will also provide financial support for other welfare programs, such as paid maternity leaves, subsidies for child births and parenting, free education from kindergarten to vocational school, and retirement benefits.

Sinnavuuty said:
View attachment 100078
It should have been the headline in every American and Western newspaper, but it wasn't. While the data is tentative, it's important to understand what this signals. The previous prediction was that life expectancy in China would surpass that of the US around 2027. The process was accelerated by the tragic US management of the pandemic, which resulted in a drop of about 2.26 years in life expectancy and more. of 1 million dead. On the one hand, US life expectancy returns to rates close to the mid-1990s. In addition to the pandemic, there is an evident fraying of the social fabric that will have an impact on social indicators.
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Actually, China's healthy life expectancy from birth overtook America's in 2018.
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Sinnavuuty said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584540514052935680
Markets in turmoil, China's RMB weakened and the country's stocks plunged to the lowest level since the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis.
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The fundamentals of China's economy are fine.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584517750621622275

China GDP: economy grew by 3.9 per cent in third quarter, beating expectations, but recovery mixed​

  • China’s economy grew by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier, up from the 0.4 per cent growth seen in the second quarter
  • Retail sales rose by 2.5 per cent in September from a year earlier, while industrial production rose by 6.3 per cent last month

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ficker22 said:
Serious question, isn't this the best time to invest into china stocks/funds?
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Yes, buyers will show up sooner or later. Chinese stock market and RMB will not crash, especially with the possible birth of petroyuan:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584641274233376768

I'm surprised that while China produces almost all its cars sold on its market, the U.S. only produces 50-55% of its cars domestically. In fact, China produces more cars than U.S., Japan, Germany, and South Korea combined. Since the auto industry is one of the most important indicators of industrialization, this is a resounding testimony of China's manufacturing prowess.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584403559797297152
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Strangelove

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
ficker22 said:
Serious question, isn't this the best time to invest into china stocks/funds?
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Looking at market orders in HK, there is massive short selling, there seems to be some sort of coordinated attack timed in with the 20th National Congress, worsened by aggressive Fed rate hikes. JP Morgan and UBS China funds are down by 40% to 50% this year.

Not sure about Shanghai A-shares, but HK Hang Seng Index will drop by another 20% to 30% to 10,000 points by end of this year.

Don't buy, haven't seen bottom yet.
 
ficker22

ficker22

Senior Member
Registered Member
Strangelove said:
Looking at market orders in HK, there is massive short selling, there seems to be some sort of coordinated attack timed in with the 20th National Congress, worsened by aggressive Fed rate hikes. JP Morgan and UBS China funds are down by 40% to 50% this year.

Not sure about Shanghai A-shares, but HK Hang Seng Index will drop by another 20% to 30% to 10,000 points by end of this year.

Don't buy, haven't seen bottom yet.
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Duly noted, am only starting to observe the market in China, really have to get off my savings somewhere with a future, when staying in EU with the money, I could basically file insolvency in 1 year.
 
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