Chinese Economics Thread

MortyandRick

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Markets in turmoil, China's RMB weakened and the country's stocks plunged to the lowest level since the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis.
China has a lot of govt funds and resources to control such volatility, wonder if they will use it. They did in 1997 to help HK against Soros and made Soros lose big.

All currencies are dropping against the USD. Mainly since the USD is appreciating a lot.
 
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JamesRed

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Minm

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To me, the biggest test of Xi's new government is whether it implements a nationwide property tax. My working theory previously was that this was something Xi wanted to do but was impeded by other factions and special interests. Now that theory will be put to the test: If he's still hesitant and doesn't at least introduce a plan to phase in property taxes, I'll know that this is something he's personally cautious about and my theory will be invalidated.

Property taxes - no matter their political difficulty - will be enormously beneficial for China. It will treat the pathologies of the real estate market at the root, it will open up a vast new revenue stream for local governments, and most importantly, it will bring home prices down. High housing prices is the number one impediment to Chinese families having more children, and the tax could even be structured to exempt families with two or more children.
A property tax is probably a good thing, but I doubt it would be given to provincial governments. That would give them too much autonomy and make central control harder. It's more likely that the tax is collected centrally and then distributed to the provinces based on population size or GDP, to redistribute more money to poorer western provinces.

I'm sure property taxes are being planned. In 2013, a property tax system was considered, but it was too early. Presumably, entrenched interests had to lose power first. Also, there's a trial running in Shanghai, so the new premier should have some relevant experience. Not sure if it would decrease home prices, but comprehensive tax reform could replace the practice of raising money from land sales

18. Improve the taxation system. Perfect the local taxation base by gradually raising the share of direct taxation. Advance value-added tax reform and simplify rate levels, and adjust the scope and rate of the consumption tax. Energy and pollution-intensive products and high-end consumer products will be subject to a consumption tax. Also, Accelerate property-tax legislation and related reform at an appropriate time. Change the current environmental-protection fee into an environment tax.
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caudaceus

Senior Member
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To me, the biggest test of Xi's new government is whether it implements a nationwide property tax. My working theory previously was that this was something Xi wanted to do but was impeded by other factions and special interests. Now that theory will be put to the test: If he's still hesitant and doesn't at least introduce a plan to phase in property taxes, I'll know that this is something he's personally cautious about and my theory will be invalidated.

Property taxes - no matter their political difficulty - will be enormously beneficial for China. It will treat the pathologies of the real estate market at the root, it will open up a vast new revenue stream for local governments, and most importantly, it will bring home prices down. High housing prices is the number one impediment to Chinese families having more children, and the tax could even be structured to exempt families with two or more children.
From what I read a factor that inhibit property tax is that quite a number of property owners that bought property a looong time ago or given by the state as retirement couldn't afford the tax, especially if it is located on Tier 1 cities. I heard Hang Zheng the one that discouraged it.
 

ZeEa5KPul

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From what I read a factor that inhibit property tax is that quite a number of property owners that bought property a looong time ago or given by the state as retirement couldn't afford the tax, especially if it is located on Tier 1 cities. I heard Hang Zheng the one that discouraged it.
Certain categories can be grandfathered into the tax. If you bought the property a long time ago on the open market and can't afford the tax, then sell it. You'll make an excellent profit on your investment. If the state gave you the property, then the state gave you the property - any transfer of ownership or inheritance means whoever receives the property pays the tax as if it was bought on the open market.
 
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