Chinese Economics Thread

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Zero covid reduces demand, which helps keep inflation down. Zero covid also drives out certain types of foreign investors, whose market share is then taken over by domestic companies. Of course there are many costs, but there are also some small but long term benefits.

In the west covid is ravaging the healthcare system and causing potentially disabling long covid which permanently decreases worker productivity. And this is happening during the summer, when covid waves are usually more easily controlled. Once all the evidence shows that endemic covid in a highly vaccinated population doesn't cause a disaster in the winter, zero covid should be abandoned. But stopping it right now would be extremely stupid. There isn't enough time to give the whole population a booster vaccine before the autumn. The ideal timing is to start giving everyone their third/fourth dose in the spring and then stop controls during the summer, so that the virus spreads in the least disruptive way.
 

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Zero covid reduces demand, which helps keep inflation down. Zero covid also drives out certain types of foreign investors, whose market share is then taken over by domestic companies. Of course there are many costs, but there are also some small but long term benefits.

In the west covid is ravaging the healthcare system and causing potentially disabling long covid which permanently decreases worker productivity. And this is happening during the summer, when covid waves are usually more easily controlled. Once all the evidence shows that endemic covid in a highly vaccinated population doesn't cause a disaster in the winter, zero covid should be abandoned. But stopping it right now would be extremely stupid. There isn't enough time to give the whole population a booster vaccine before the autumn. The ideal timing is to start giving everyone their third/fourth dose in the spring and then stop controls during the summer, so that the virus spreads in the least disruptive way.
Also zero COVID affects the supply and hence makes the inflation in Western countries worse, which is another plus.

Not joking btw, since the West has engaged into economic war with China, it is only adequate to seek for vulnerable spots and attack them there.
 

InfamousMeow

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's amazing how many people here were blind fanboys of CCP saying Zero Covid was supposedly fine. Too many people can't ever criticise CCP for anything. It's a massive disaster. It should have ended a long time ago.

Wow, it's really rich coming from you to call others fanboys! With the language you are using, it seems like you are more of a hater than anyone else being fanboys.

If you want to criticise by reasoning and discussion, I don't see anyone stopping you. But if you already made up your mind and constantly tout narrative along the line of Zero Covid being a "MASSIVE DISASTER THAT SHOULD HAVE ENDED A LONG TIME AGO" whenever one evidence fits your narrative, then obviously there will be push backs from people who have also made up their mind on the other side of the spectrum and counter your argument with their evidence. That's just a natural part of discourse.

It appears to me that you feel entitled to your opinions not being challenged, no matter how strong your wordings are. That's not quite dialectical, is it?
 

Aniah

Senior Member
Registered Member
Wow, it's really rich coming from you to call others fanboys! With the language you are using, it seems like you are more of a hater than anyone else being fanboys.

If you want to criticise by reasoning and discussion, I don't see anyone stopping you. But if you already made up your mind and constantly tout narrative along the line of Zero Covid being a "MASSIVE DISASTER THAT SHOULD HAVE ENDED A LONG TIME AGO" whenever one evidence fits your narrative, then obviously there will be push backs from people who have also made up their mind on the other side of the spectrum and counter your argument with their evidence. That's just a natural part of discourse.

It appears to me that you feel entitled to your opinions not being challenged, no matter how strong your wordings are. That's not quite dialectical, is it?
I'm a fanboy of the CCP because I'm sure they know their country more than we do and them being smarter than any of us here is another plus. And what do you know? 3 years of growth, while the entire western world is going to hell, is a pretty big proving point.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Shanghai GDP down 13.7%
Beijing GDP down 2.9%
Jilin down 4%

I think the most concerning stat here is Beijing's contraction. Shanghai fucked up. Beijing didn't. Beijing did zero covid properly, and still experienced contraction. To me that's concerning. Hopefully with new testing infrastructure in place and 48h rule this will change.

Good news: Even with the top two Chinese cities contracting, China still experienced growth, albeit slight. This is a testament to the resilience and completeness of Chinese infrastructure and supply chains.

Unlike many here, I don't believe China will abandon their current strategy soon (that is, either this year or the next). I think China is in it for the long run, however long it takes to develop a silver bullet. This could mean years.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Shanghai GDP down 13.7%
Beijing GDP down 2.9%
Jilin down 4%

I think the most concerning stat here is Beijing's contraction. Shanghai fucked up. Beijing didn't. Beijing did zero covid properly, and still experienced contraction. To me that's concerning. Hopefully with new testing infrastructure in place and 48h rule this will change.

Good news: Even with the top two Chinese cities contracting, China still experienced growth, albeit slight. This is a testament to the resilience and completeness of Chinese infrastructure and supply chains.

Unlike many here, I don't believe China will abandon their current strategy soon (that is, either this year or the next). I think China is in it for the long run, however long it takes to develop a silver bullet. This could mean years.
Historically how long did it take for society to develop a immunity too a endemic or pandamic. I heard people saying 4 or 5 years but can't really find it back.

I think taking it slow for a year of 4 seems smart you can track vaccinated people like young or old adults not develop physical problems manifest to new vaccines. Then later make the vaccine a requirement like the other vaccines.
 

xlitter

Junior Member
Registered Member
令人惊讶的是,这里有多少人是 CCP 的盲人粉丝,他们说零疫情应该没问题。太多的人永远不能批评中共。这是一场巨大的灾难。它应该在很久以前就结束了。
95%的中国人支持动态归零,人命最宝贵。下面这句话就可以解释为什么:救人失地,人地并存;救地失人,失人失地。
 

xlitter

Junior Member
Registered Member
上海GDP下降13.7%
北京GDP下降2.9%
吉林下跌4%

我认为这里最令人担忧的数据是北京的收缩。上海完蛋了 北京没有。北京正确地做到了零covid,但仍然经历了收缩。对我来说,这是令人担忧的。希望有了新的测试基础设施和 48 小时规则,这将会改变。

好消息:即使中国前两个城市收缩,中国仍然经历了增长,尽管幅度很小。这证明了中国基础设施和供应链的弹性和完整性。

与这里的许多人不同,我不相信中国会很快放弃他们目前的战略(即今年或明年)。我认为中国长期参与其中,无论开发银弹需要多长时间。这可能意味着几年。
不清楚您是否注意到,几乎与上海同时出现 COVID-19 的深圳,在病例数达到两位数后被果断封锁。最后的结果和上海完全不一样!这一次,上海经济严重受损,完全是防疫不力,拖延太久造成的!如果是严格的动态重置,上海就和深圳一样安全了!
 
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