Chinese Economics Thread

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
A few things.

First, your graph shows *quarter to quarter* change, not YoY. It is the latter that counts.

Second, when GDP is calculated, they use the annual average, not a single day which the Chinese website used. That having been said, it is only a question of time before China passes the EU. If not this year then almost certainly the next.

Third, while that will be an important milestone, the EU is just the underling of the US. China has to pass EU *and* US before it is fully sovereign.
Since the UK is not part of the EU, their gdp in not calculated. China gdp will need to surpass that of EU plus the UK, to make it even more convincing.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
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Bs. China actually generates X times more value for these countries. Their mistake was all that money was siphoned by the oligarchs.

China generated so much wealth for the West that if they were smart, the people living in the West would all be rich

For every $1 that China got, the West got $10
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Bs. China actually generates X times more value for these countries. Their mistake was all that money was siphoned by the oligarchs.

China generated so much wealth for the West that if they were smart, the people living in the West would all be rich

For every $1 that China got, the West got $10
I thought i saw where a Chinese diplomat said China made 10 trillion while US made 13 trillion since the WTO joining. Dont know for the entire 'west'.
The issue was the distribution of wealth in the west. Most of it went to the shareholders of big companies.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
During height of cold war 1.0 no one disputed USSR was a sovereign even though its GDP was that of California, it had enough nukes and was technologically independant from the West/US...
It wasn't technologically independent from the West in anything except military hardware. That's a major reason why it ended up on the scrap heap of history. It was economically very weak and had a low innovative capacity in civilian areas. The lesson from USSR is that military hardware is just one aspect of a state's capacity to survive. You need much more. China is different in this regard as its leaders instinctively understand that lesson.
Your definition of "fully sovereign" equates to top global hegemon with reserve currency status. If China economy grew larger than US and EU combined, then by definition it would already be defacto global hegemon with reserve currency status.... while that would certainly mean its "fully sovereign", the aforementioned label is a far lower threshold than what you seem to be misconstruing it to mean or to be.

The US economy itself is not greater than US+EU, so by your own definition the US is not fully soveriegn... but yet you count the underling of EU...

Then by that logic China can start tallying up its BRI partners as well...

I don't think China needs the yuan to become the global reserve currency. I don't even think it needs to be come the "top hegemon". But it *does* need to become at least equal (or close to equal) with the combined GDP of the West.

The US is fully sovereign since it essentially controls the EU's foreign policy. This should be obvious to all impartial observers. So while the EU's GDP isn't counted towards the US GDP, in all important matters the EU is an impotent dog which does its master's bidding. That's why it makes sense to count them together, even as only America calls the shots.

The EU is not fully sovereign for the reasons I've outlined above. China's influence over its BRI partners are not even close to the massive influence (if not outright control) that the US exerts over the EU. Another great example is Australia, which also acted as an attack dog once its US masters told it to.

That's why I say that China isn't just competing with America alone. It's competing with America *and* its puppets, with a combined GDP of >$40 trillion USD. I am skeptical China will ever exceed the entire West's GDP, but I am not convinced it will need to. It is sufficient to get "close enough" - maybe 80%?. Right now it is not close enough. I also don't think it needs to have the global reserve currency, nor have I ever stated any such belief in my comments. But this is a separate debate.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
"China has used WTO membership to go well beyond its earmarked role as workshop to the West"
China to them was supposed to remain a manufacturer of cheap goods for the West, technologically inferior and stuck in the middle income trap. A bigger version of Brazil or Mexico

Or a 'Mega Taiwan'. Economically more successful but still politically dependent/submissive. A lot of rage directed against China is its "failure" to become an American puppet.

Also, as for the economics, the idea that China gained at the West's expense is ludicrous. Apple could never have become as successful with access to China's vast industrial base. Who was going to replace them? India? LOL.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
True that Lithuania's dismal Q3 isn't because of China. I should have made it clear that Lithuania's economical prospective is going to look even worse as China starts punishing it.

It is said that China is demanding its European suppliers to remove Lithuanian sources from their shipments to China. China is learning fast from the US.
Lithuanian seems to have a history of clueless leaders. Their current leader is like their previous king Augustine II who was very good a digging himself into a deeper hole for no reason other than the complete incompetence. The only reason he was ‘strong’ was he rode on the back of its ally, Russia’s success against Sweden despite taking continuous losses. There’s a reason why they stopped existing for a number of years because of poor statesmanship.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
During height of cold war 1.0 no one disputed USSR was a sovereign even though its GDP was that of California, it had enough nukes and was technologically independant from the West/US...

Your definition of "fully sovereign" equates to top global hegemon with reserve currency status. If China economy grew larger than US and EU combined, then by definition it would already be defacto global hegemon with reserve currency status.... while that would certainly mean its "fully sovereign", the aforementioned label is a far lower threshold than what you seem to be misconstruing it to mean or to be.

The US economy itself is not greater than US+EU, so by your own definition the US is not fully soveriegn... but yet you count the underling of EU...

Then by that logic China can start tallying up its BRI partners as well...
Delete for jumping the gun.
 
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