Chinese Economics Thread

[LesAdieux]

He needs to elaborate. Responses half way is unhelpful ... as unhelpful as the same stats he throws veiled criticism on. Detailing a bit on the specifics would help. Otherwise, it'd only help in dampening investor confidence.

"A key meeting of top leaders this week said China’s growth next year will be weighed down by a “triple” whammy of contracting demand, a supply shock, and weakening expectations. However, none of those are visible in the statistical indicators, which have all been “very good,” Lou Jiwei, a former minister of finance, said at an online event Saturday."

The above means that the planners know there are dangers and uncertainty and they have the statistic indicators ( unreleased) and the statistic indicators they publish don't reflect that. But what would be these unreleased indicators ? Rate of bad loan generation ? Rate of decrease in savings ?

the quote of the Bloomberg report is not complete, but the "veiled criticism" from Lou Jiwei is not very obvious to me.

economic planners expected triple whammy ahead, but so far economic indicators have all been "very good". they didn't manipulate consistently? well, it could be that: what expected haven't shown up in the indicators, or the expectations may not be accurate. Bloomberg tried to twist it into a question against those indicators, or they expected worse.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

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CAN'T STOP WINNING

 

[mossen]

China's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 beats that of EU.

Even though China can pull off this largely because of Briexit, but IMO it is still quite significant not only economically but also pyschologically - EU is even weaker now in the "position of strength".

News in Chinese:

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Translation in English:

"On Dec 7, EU reported that the 27 country bloc's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 is 10674.647 billion euros, or 76570.31 billion RMB. According to the exchange rates published by PBOC, 1 euro equals 7.1731 RMB on Dec 10."

"China's GDP in the same period is 82313.1 billion RMB. ..."

"Same story goes in USD figures. On Dec 10, 1 euro equals 1.1299 USD, 1 USD equals 6.3696 RMB. In the first 3 quarters, China's GDP in USD is 12922.805 billion while EU's is 12061.294 billion."

PS:

Can someone cross check the EU's GDP number? I didn't see that figure in this EuroStat publication:

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In this EuroStat doc, something did catch my attention:

View attachment 79833

As the naughty Lithuania gets spanked by China, its economical prospective isn't looking good.

A few things.

First, your graph shows *quarter to quarter* change, not YoY. It is the latter that counts.

Second, when GDP is calculated, they use the annual average, not a single day which the Chinese website used. That having been said, it is only a question of time before China passes the EU. If not this year then almost certainly the next.

Third, while that will be an important milestone, the EU is just the underling of the US. China has to pass EU *and* US before it is fully sovereign.

 

[9dashline]

A few things.

First, your graph shows *quarter to quarter* change, not YoY. It is the latter that counts.

Second, when GDP is calculated, they use the annual average, not a single day which the Chinese website used. That having been said, it is only a question of time before China passes the EU. If not this year then almost certainly the next.

Third, while that will be an important milestone, the EU is just the underling of the US. China has to pass EU *and* US before it is fully sovereign.

Thats not the definition of sovereign. China reaching and maintaining full MAD nuclear status and technology supply chain independence (EUV, jet engines, etc) is what it derives its fully sovereign status from.

 

[mossen]

Reaching full tech independence requires ungodly amounts of R&D money and a huge market. All that is connected to economics. China isn't competing against just one country. It's the entire West (~40 trillion USD).

 

[9dashline]

Reaching full tech independence requires ungodly amounts of R&D money and a huge market. All that is connected to economics. China isn't competing against just one country. It's the entire West (~40 trillion USD).

During height of cold war 1.0 no one disputed USSR was a sovereign even though its GDP was that of California, it had enough nukes and was technologically independant from the West/US...

Your definition of "fully sovereign" equates to top global hegemon with reserve currency status. If China economy grew larger than US and EU combined, then by definition it would already be defacto global hegemon with reserve currency status.... while that would certainly mean its "fully sovereign", the aforementioned label is a far lower threshold than what you seem to be misconstruing it to mean or to be.

The US economy itself is not greater than US+EU, so by your own definition the US is not fully soveriegn... but yet you count the underling of EU...

Then by that logic China can start tallying up its BRI partners as well...

 

[zxy_bc]

Interesting, PBOC keeps interest rates high

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Who says that PBOC has been independent ever? I don't know why those in the West always assume the Chinese MOF being comparable with PBOC. Ministry of Finance in China has never been in a position of comparable strength on monetary policy as PBOC has all these years. (MOF has been known for years for wanting to dictate monetary policies but always failed to gain more). Besides PBOC, if one were to learn more about economic or monetary policies, NDRC should be the organization to look at instead. (for its previous role as the country's National Planning Commission, and the present role as "State Council LITE") NDRC's departments' categorizations are extremely far-reaching.

 

[zxy_bc]

I remember Tom Clancy wrote in his extremely hilarious political novel "The Bear and The Dragon", one of the plot in that novel saying that Chinese Minister of Finance had to explain to his "comrades" about theories of capitalist economy after the reform era. I was laughing my ass when i read this, since it's so ridiculous to depict MOF as this "bastion of western free trade economic ideas", and also completely ignoring the enormous machination of NDRC. (there is a saying "if there is problems related with economy, NDRC must be involved")

 

[9dashline]

I remember Tom Clancy wrote in his extremely hilarious political novel "The Bear and The Dragon", one of the plot in that novel saying that Chinese Minister of Finance had to explain to his "comrades" about theories of capitalist economy after the reform era. I was laughing my ass when i read this, since it's so ridiculous to depict MOF as this "bastion of western free trade economic ideas", and also completely ignoring the enormous machination of NDRC. (there is a saying "if there is problems related with economy, NDRC must be involved")

Hunt for Red October, one of the things that set US apart from USSR was that the grocery store shelfs werent empty

Now Biden admin is meeting in secret with US news media to paint the propaganda that there is no inflation, no supply chain issues, and that you can still have a very merry christmas in your imaginations without physical things

 

[Maikeru]

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