Chinese Economics Thread

[Xizor]

Strong trade data
Omicron variants coming up. West will go in lockdown, China will stay open

So the world is now parking their wealth in Chinese assets to ride out this wave

Omicron, since it doesn't hike the mortality, may not be as serious a case as Delta. I don't think EU or NA will go into harsh lockdowns as before.

US won't feel the pinch. Biden won't risk it ( he is already very unpopular) and the US has the capacity to shrug off the death numbers. China can expect the confidence to have waned due to other issues with Property debt issue and regulatory crackdown.

 

[SanWenYu]

China's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 beats that of EU.

Even though China can pull off this largely because of Briexit, but IMO it is still quite significant not only economically but also pyschologically - EU is even weaker now in the "position of strength".

News in Chinese:

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12月7日，欧盟统计局公布了最新GDP数据，欧盟27国前三季度现价季调GDP总量为106746.47亿欧元。

根据央行今天（12月10日）发布的银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价，1欧元兑人民币7.1731元。如此换算，欧盟27国前三季度GDP总量约为人民币765703.1亿元。


前三季度，中国GDP为823131亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长9.8%，两年平均增长5.2%，比上半年两年平均增速回落0.1个百分点。中国前三季度GDP超过欧盟27国之和。


如果按美元计价，北京时间10日上午，取欧元兑美元汇率1.1299计算，欧盟27国前三季度现价季调GDP总和约为120612.94亿美元；取汇率6.3696计算，中国同期GDP为129228.05亿美元。

Translation in English:

"On Dec 7, EU reported that the 27 country bloc's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 is 10674.647 billion euros, or 76570.31 billion RMB. According to the exchange rates published by PBOC, 1 euro equals 7.1731 RMB on Dec 10."

"China's GDP in the same period is 82313.1 billion RMB. ..."

"Same story goes in USD figures. On Dec 10, 1 euro equals 1.1299 USD, 1 USD equals 6.3696 RMB. In the first 3 quarters, China's GDP in USD is 12922.805 billion while EU's is 12061.294 billion."

PS:

Can someone cross check the EU's GDP number? I didn't see that figure in this EuroStat publication:

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In this EuroStat doc, something did catch my attention:



As the naughty Lithuania gets spanked by China, its economical prospective isn't looking good.

 

[Xizor]

China's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 beats that of EU.

Even though China can pull off this largely because of Briexit, but IMO it is still quite significant not only economically but also pyschologically - EU is even weaker now in the "position of strength".

News in Chinese:

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Translation in English:

"On Dec 7, EU reported that the 27 country bloc's GDP in the first 3 quarters of 2021 is 10674.647 billion euros, or 76570.31 billion RMB. According to the exchange rates published by PBOC, 1 euro equals 7.1731 RMB on Dec 10."

"China's GDP in the same period is 82313.1 billion RMB. ..."

"Same story goes in USD figures. On Dec 10, 1 euro equals 1.1299 USD, 1 USD equals 6.3696 RMB. In the first 3 quarters, China's GDP in USD is 12922.805 billion while EU's is 12061.294 billion."

PS:

Can someone cross check the EU's GDP number? I didn't see that figure in this EuroStat publication:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In this EuroStat doc, something did catch my attention:

View attachment 79833

As the naughty Lithuania gets spanked by China, its economical prospective isn't looking good.

Lithuania may be not having GDP growth. For EU as a whole, it maybe due to low base effect (last year same time the lockdowns kicked EU hard). I think we have to look at 2022 to understand if China has had any effect on Lithuania.

 

[SanWenYu]

Lithuania may be not having GDP growth. For EU as a whole, it maybe due to low base effect (last year same time the lockdowns kicked EU hard). I think we have to look at 2022 to understand if China has had any effect on Lithuania.

True that Lithuania's dismal Q3 isn't because of China. I should have made it clear that Lithuania's economical prospective is going to look even worse as China starts punishing it.

It is said that China is demanding its European suppliers to remove Lithuanian sources from their shipments to China. China is learning fast from the US.

 

[Overbom]

Lithuania may be not having GDP growth. For EU as a whole, it maybe due to low base effect (last year same time the lockdowns kicked EU hard). I think we have to look at 2022 to understand if China has had any effect on Lithuania.

The EU is failing and stagnating

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

Interesting, PBOC keeps interest rates high

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[Overbom]

Interesting, PBOC keeps interest rates high

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PBOC has made too many enemies right now. I think it will be forced to take a step back and provide more monetary easing

 

[DarkStar]

Interesting, PBOC keeps interest rates high

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PBOC has made too many enemies right now. I think it will be forced to take a step back and provide more monetary easing

I see it as part of the ongoing campaign against the anglos, specifically America. Ordinarily during these times of uncertainty, Covid, and potential wars in Ukraine and Taiwan, investors and hedge funds and governments would be putting all their money into America in the form of US Treasury purchases, despite shit low interest rates (in fact this is the impetus of the anglos causing chaos around the world).
China increasing rates for bonds creates a magnet for foreign and institutional money that would have otherwise gone to America, thereby depriving the USG of its shield against inflation when it can’t help but print QE infinity.

 

[escobar]

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[Xizor]

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He needs to elaborate. Responses half way is unhelpful ... as unhelpful as the same stats he throws veiled criticism on. Detailing a bit on the specifics would help. Otherwise, it'd only help in dampening investor confidence.

"A key meeting of top leaders this week said China’s growth next year will be weighed down by a “triple” whammy of contracting demand, a supply shock, and weakening expectations. However, none of those are visible in the statistical indicators, which have all been “very good,” Lou Jiwei, a former minister of finance, said at an online event Saturday."

The above means that the planners know there are dangers and uncertainty and they have the statistic indicators ( unreleased) and the statistic indicators they publish don't reflect that. But what would be these unreleased indicators ? Rate of bad loan generation ? Rate of decrease in savings ?