Chinese Economics Thread

[ChongqingHotPot92]

I just want Xi to put up a property tax, inheritance tax and maybe a capital tax as well. If he manages to pass these taxes during his administration I will rate him close to Deng without even considering his other accomplishments.

These taxes are tremendously opposed by powerful interest groups. If he manages to win over them and pass the taxes, then he should be applauded.

I think that Xi's 3rd term will be the equivalent of the US President Roosevelt's "New Deal" reforms. Fingers crossed.

Property tax, inheritance tax, and capital tax are all necessary in the long term. However, the issue here is to what degree and how. Given the selfish nature of human beings, it is important to still allow national capitalists and entrepreneurs to at least live better lives (better apartments, better cars, better access to education for children) than the average. Otherwise they would lose incentives to continue innovating and creating job opportunities for the society. In other words, collectivism and more distributions of wealth are necessary given China's immense wealth gap, but the implementation of redistribution policies must be targeted and not extreme. As the Chinese love to say, it is one thing to cut the chives a few times a year when they grow tall enough, but if you pull their roots out, they will never grow again (and then people will starve).

Therefore, if the governments eventually could work out comprehensive standards on what kinds of enterprises and rich individuals must pay more or less taxes, while strictly limit capital outflow (has to be enforceable and figure out a way to crackdown on money laundering channels with connections to state-owned banks, etc.), the society as a whole could become more fair and just. However, if local Party cadres use and abuse the Central Government's directives to seize properties from private entrepreneurs and demand heavy bribes (vaguely compare to the Great Leap Forward, when local cadres abused the Central Government's directives for their own promotions), then expect unemployment in these regions to skyrocket.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

It's not aesthetics; when Westerners first came to Asia, the women said that these people had goat heads (the British dude had 2 tufts of hair on the sides of his head, bald in the middle, and a goatee). When China was technologically superior, foreigners, including Caucasians, were looked down upon as barbarians and below Chinese. No Chinese woman would even consider something like that romantically; such a thought bordered on beastiality. It's all about technology and power; whatever you look like, Asian, black, white, Latino, Middle-Eastern, if you are the most powerful race on earth, women will associate your look with powerful status and that look will trend to become attractive.

It was long over by the time the Cultural Revolution came around. When Westerners invaded China and divided China into spheres of influence, they asserted dominance and that was it. If anything, the Cultural Revolution gave China the renewed self-respect to say that even though we are behind, we don't give up and we will never resign ourselves to being a junior partner. Of course, it did come with serious economic consequences, but China was simply standing up at that point; becoming prosperous, advanced, and powerful were pretty much irrelevant fantasies at the time.

I only agree with one part: the fact that Chinese people never gave up their hope to be just as rich as the West. However I disagree with the rest. The Korean War, 1962 India China Border conflict, and the nuclear tests in the mid 20th century caused Chinese people to be proud of themselves since they demonstrated to the entire world that China can duke it out with the West, not the Cultural Revolution. As a matter of fact, the social damage caused by the Cultural Revolution outweighed the benefits. The late 40's and the 50's generations got hit the hardest due to the lack of schooling, persecution of many intellectuals (including STEM ones), and destruction of the education system. Because of that, the 60's, 70's and to a certain degree 80's generations lacked the analytical skills and wisdom to judge the outside world and adopted the foreign worship mentality. Yes, the feudalistic mentality of the masses needed to be stomped out. The Chinese users on Quora talked about how bad the situation was in the countryside prior to the Cultural Revolution. However the cost was too high. There is a reason why many of the pro US Chinese 'scholars' and 'intellectuals' (admittedly at least the ones I heard and seen) are from those generations and, to be honest, stupid, and that is the reason. Fortunately, China recovered from it; the younger generations demonstrated that. But the damage is still there.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

I only agree with one part: the fact that Chinese people never gave up their hope to be just as rich as the West. However I disagree with the rest. The Korean War, 1962 India China Border conflict, and the nuclear tests in the mid 20th century caused Chinese people to be proud of themselves since they demonstrated to the entire world that China can duke it out with the West, not the Cultural Revolution. As a matter of fact, the cultural damage caused by the Cultural Revolution outweighed the benefits. The late 40's and the 50's generations got hit the hardest due to the lack of schooling, persecution of many intellectuals (including STEM ones), and destruction of the education system. Because of that, the 60's, 70's and to a certain degree 80's generations lacked the analytical skills and wisdom to judge the outside world and adopted the foreign worship mentality. Yes, the feudalistic mentality of the masses needed to be stomped out. The Chinese users on Quora talked about how bad the situation was in the countryside prior to the Cultural Revolution. However the cost was too high. There is a reason why many of the pro US Chinese 'scholars' and 'intellectuals' (admittedly at least the ones I heard and seen) are from those generations and, to be honest, stupid, and that is the reason. Fortunately, China recovered from it; the younger generations demonstrated that. But the damage is still there.

But do keep in mind that the 60's and 70's generation are also the most hardworking and subsequently created the post-1978 China Miracle. Yes, a lot of them blindly worshipped Reagan and Thatcher because they suffered during the Cultural Revolution. But these folks were also the first generation of private entrepreneurs in China during the 1980s and 1990s, and created immense job opportunities for their brethren.

I don't want to get too political and off topic here. However, maybe the Party owns its people a sincere apology (and maybe compensations for the surviving victims) regarding the Great Leap Forward famine and the Cultural Revolution. While the success of Mao (protracted war, insisting on self-reliance, land reforms) could to be remembered and promoted as a unifying factor for the PRC, his failures during the GLF and promotions of mob rule during the Cultural Revolution should be critically examined (does not mean a wholesale rejection of Mao). Coming to terms with these two mistakes are the best ways to delegitimize folks who are blindly worshipping the West. Ultimately, the GLF did cause a famine (recorded by the PRC's own population census from 1959-1962) because Mao's policy failure allowed local cadres to abuse power. And the Cultural Revolution devastated not only China's economy, but also defense industry and the entire education system.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

But do keep in mind that the 60's and 70's generation are also the most hardworking and subsequently created the post-1978 China Miracle. Yes, a lot of them blindly worshipped Reagan and Thatcher because they suffered during the Cultural Revolution. But these folks were also the first generation of private entrepreneurs in China during the 1980s and 1990s, and created immense job opportunities for their brethren.

I don't want to get too political and off topic here. However, maybe the Party owns its people a sincere apology (and maybe compensations for the surviving victims) regarding the Great Leap Forward famine and the Cultural Revolution. While the success of Mao (protracted war, insisting on self-reliance, land reforms) could to be remembered and promoted as a unifying factor for the PRC, his failures during the GLF and promotions of mob rule during the Cultural Revolution should be critically examined (does not mean a wholesale rejection of Mao). Coming to terms with these two mistakes are the best ways to delegitimize folks who are blindly worshipping the West. Ultimately, the GLF did cause a famine (recorded by the PRC's own population census from 1959-1962) because Mao's policy failure allowed local cadres to abuse power. And the Cultural Revolution devastated not only China's economy, but also defense industry and the entire education system.

Agreed. However I am mostly referring to the 'intellectuals' who teach history, write the social curriculum, and etc. As for the Party apology, since it is OT, I'll just leave a remark here. In my opinion, after the threat from the West has been thoroughly destroyed regardless of the method, I believe there shouldn't be an apology from the Party itself since it is inaccurate to say that the Party as a whole caused those travesties. Instead there should be an objective analysis of the individuals who partook in the formation of those policies, and those analyzers should objectively weigh their contributions and mistakes to make the final judgement of those individuals. Otherwise, factionalism will occur and there will be social chaos. Currently, the US has this problem since the faults of one leader or politician is placed on an entire party.

 

[windsclouds2030]

If they are preparing for war, they should implement mandatory conscription like in Singapore.

Singapore has population less than 6 million people, it will certainly need mandatory conscription to make up the number.

China has population of 1446 million people, completely different situation. Just figure yourself the scale of number

 

[AndrewS]

If they are preparing for war, they should implement mandatory conscription like in Singapore.

Perhaps you can think through your statements first?

If China implemented conscription like Singapore, you're talking about a military with:

16 million active personnel
and
300+ million reservists

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

after the threat from the West has been thoroughly destroyed regardless of the method

Actually the very existence of a formidable foreign threat could be a great driver of domestic reforms and reflections of social ills. For example, Kennedy and Johnson Administrations and their supporters in Congress actively pushed for the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Voting Rights Act of 1965, and immigrating loosening of 1965 partly due to Soviet and Chinese propagandas encouraging Third World folks to stand up against white supremacism and colonialism. Kennedy argued that if the United States were to remain a white supremacist nation with a significant portion of its own citizens not being able to enjoy rights protected by the Constitution, the US-led West would soon lose legitimacy in its global struggle against Communism. It was under the threat of Soviet and Chinese delegitimization that the United States finally become a true Liberal Democracy (as opposed to white elitist democracy) after 1965. Vietnam War also led to lowering of voting age to 18, so draftees would have a voice in the political process. However, after 1991, when the formidable external threat disappeared, there were no more incentives for Washington and Wall Street elites to share more power with Joe averages. Therefore, even after the 2008 Financial Crisis, little could be done to make the American society more just.

Therefore, maybe the post-2017 US-China Strategic Competition could be a great opportunity to make both nations reflect upon themselves in order to better compete. When the elites of a country faces a formidable external foe, they could be compelled to make their own country just and fair, so the country as whole could become more united under their rule (legitimacy), allowing them to better mobilize resources to compete with the external adversary. Xi saw that, and while his promotion of socially conservative values could be controversial, his "common prosperity" and wealthy redistribution policies (if implemented in a way that does not discourage entrepreneurship and innovation) could make the Chinese society more fair and just. Let's see what Joe Biden could come up with to make America more just and united.

Finally, we also lucky to live in the nuclear age. Nukes deter great powers from resorting to large-scale wars, so elites within great powers have time and space to draft and implement necessary reforms before being attacked or sabotaged. Otherwise, we might see a repeat of 1937, when Japan struck China before Chiang could finish rebuilding China's economy and industries.

 

[AndrewS]

Finally, we also lucky to live in the nuclear age. Nukes deter great powers from resorting to large-scale wars, so elites within great powers have time and space to draft and implement necessary reforms before being attacked or sabotaged. Otherwise, we might see a repeat of 1937, when Japan struck China before Chiang could finish rebuilding China's economy and industries.

America is exceptional in the nature of its political divide

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[Agnus]

If any country that should do a conscription, it should be Japan. 30 percent of Japan's population is already over 60. They need every body that can fight. But, given Japanese public being generally passive, apolitical and anti-militarist. It won't happen.

 

[OppositeDay]

But do keep in mind that the 60's and 70's generation are also the most hardworking and subsequently created the post-1978 China Miracle. Yes, a lot of them blindly worshipped Reagan and Thatcher because they suffered during the Cultural Revolution. But these folks were also the first generation of private entrepreneurs in China during the 1980s and 1990s, and created immense job opportunities for their brethren.

I don't want to get too political and off topic here. However, maybe the Party owns its people a sincere apology (and maybe compensations for the surviving victims) regarding the Great Leap Forward famine and the Cultural Revolution. While the success of Mao (protracted war, insisting on self-reliance, land reforms) could to be remembered and promoted as a unifying factor for the PRC, his failures during the GLF and promotions of mob rule during the Cultural Revolution should be critically examined (does not mean a wholesale rejection of Mao). Coming to terms with these two mistakes are the best ways to delegitimize folks who are blindly worshipping the West. Ultimately, the GLF did cause a famine (recorded by the PRC's own population census from 1959-1962) because Mao's policy failure allowed local cadres to abuse power. And the Cultural Revolution devastated not only China's economy, but also defense industry and the entire education system.

While some of these first generation private entrepreneurs were victims of Cultural Revolution, the others were red guards. Cultural Revolution was complicated. You often have both victims and victimizers in a single family. My family was victimized, and for many years we had former red guards coming and asking for our forgiveness. Some we forgave some we didn't (as a rule we refuse to forgive anyone with blood on their hands). What could an apology from the party do? Cultural Revolution was launched by Mao to wage war on the party and the government. Most people who later came into power were themselves victims of Cultural Revolution. Why do victims need apologies from other victims? Sometimes just moving on is the best solution.