Chinese Economics Thread

[PUFF_DRAGON]

As a proud Chinese American I am here to say this: This so called "aggressive imbecile" was never elected by a majority of the people. He never got the most votes. He never got a majority approval. He was impeached by Congress. His entire election was just a mistake. And now he has been defeated for re-election the first president to do so since 1992. Please do not take him as an indicator of American intention. Quite the opposite.

Trump only lost re-election by <50k votes in 2-3 swing states. The Democrats also got savaged in the House and state elections. The GOP and Trump made massive inroads among Latinos, the demographic future of the United States' swing states. You're either lying or completely uninformed about American electoral politics if you think Trump was a one off aberration.

What the 2020 election showed us is that the PRC should prepare for a base case of GOP annihilation of the Democrats in the 2022 midterms followed by some "America First" Republican without Trump's baggage winning spectacularly in 2024.

Even then, it's worth noting that military/national security planners' job is to plan for the bad end of the baseline scenario. The baseline is economic cold war. The bad end of the base case is open warfare with the US. It's best to pre-emptively prepare for near assured American hostility by smashing its client states while they are in a state of internal disarray.

In other words, there is pretty much no downside to breaking Australia and no upside in refraining from doing so.

 

[W20]

"You're (...) uninformed about American electoral politics if you think Trump was a one off aberration"

E x a c t l y

Trump is the true face of America
Trump is America without mask

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That is why the ruling class wants to return to the old ways, because they have been afraid that the nations of the world will see more easily the true face of the Anglo empire

 

[hashtagpls]

Australia's leaders are getting desperate, resorting to trade talks with taiwan

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Naturally, this is not going to improve their position, we can expect another week of new tariffs on Australian products.

 

[bajingan]

Australia's leaders are getting desperate, resorting to trade talks with taiwan

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Naturally, this is not going to improve their position, we can expect another week of new tariffs on Australian products.

They are delusional bordering high on meth if they think that trade with taiwan is gonna replace trade lost with China
They knew they are about to lose the Chinese market forever

 

[Dolcevita]

Australia's leaders are getting desperate, resorting to trade talks with taiwan

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Naturally, this is not going to improve their position, we can expect another week of new tariffs on Australian products.

China should focus her wrath on Australia. Very much deserved.

 

[PUFF_DRAGON]

I see Australia has decided pushing the Taiwan button is a great idea. That being said, the only way to really hurt Australia is to cut off iron imports from Australia since that is like the single biggest import from there.

The issue is that the steel industry in China is pretty influential and they can't get iron from elsewhere easily. People in this forum can make mouth noises but until the PRC starts shutting down iron imports, I maintain that the PRC response to Australia is limp wrist and weak.

If China's response to Australia accusing it of biological warfare, banning its national champions, and declaring a massive military buildup against China is to only put tariffs on wine and beef then it's pretty clear no one in the foreign ministry has a spine.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Australia's leaders are getting desperate, resorting to trade talks with taiwan

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Naturally, this is not going to improve their position, we can expect another week of new tariffs on Australian products.

It simply isn't tenable to replace a 14 trillion market with a 0.6 trillion one. Elsewhere, economies are still recovering and not in a position to gobble up lobsters and wine.

 

[hashtagpls]

I see Australia has decided pushing the Taiwan button is a great idea. That being said, the only way to really hurt Australia is to cut off iron imports from Australia since that is like the single biggest import from there.

The issue is that the steel industry in China is pretty influential and they can't get iron from elsewhere easily. People in this forum can make mouth noises but until the PRC starts shutting down iron imports, I maintain that the PRC response to Australia is limp wrist and weak.

If China's response to Australia accusing it of biological warfare, banning its national champions, and declaring a massive military buildup against China is to only put tariffs on wine and beef then it's pretty clear no one in the foreign ministry has a spine.

Ask and ye shall receive; already the steps are being taken to wean china off Australian iron ore:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Although the industry are led to believe that China is ~5 years out from making that mine in Guinea up and running an competitive with Australia, who's to say China won't just accept lower quality ores from russia and elsewhere if refining the ores in China becomes much more competitive?
The price of iron ore has skyrocketed enough to make refining the ore in China to be more competitive.

 

[gelgoog]

I think once construction in China slows down the need for steel and hence iron ore will decrease significantly.
Sooner or later I think the Chinese government will stop the expansion of high speed rail and subways. Perhaps they should have done so already since the network is already quite vast. Once steel using enterprises slow down then you can just recycle steel. I mean I could see them continuing like this for another decade. But past that? I don't think this massive construction will go for more than a decade.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

After the pandemic, a trend Morgan Stanley dubs "urbanization 2.0"—the proliferation of regional clusters of cities into "supercities," like Southern China's Greater Bay Area, and their widespread use of smart city tech—will be an important economic driver, Christianson said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Meanwhile, the urbanization strategy over the past two years has been shifting to focus more on promoting mega-clusters in advanced regions, such as Yangtze River Delta; Jing-Jin-Ji Area; Greater Bay Area; Mid-Yangtze River Area; and Chengdu-Chongqing Area.

Morgan Stanley expects total population of China’s top five city clusters to reach 120 million on average by 2030—each close to the size of Japan's entire population. These city clusters are central to boosting productivity as they amplify the efficiencies of urban agglomeration.

There are concerns that life in these supercities could face a litany of problems from overcrowding, pollution and crime. But a vital part of China’s urbanization strategy is to make these supercities green, smart and safe. To that end, the Chinese government is investing an estimated $800 billion in high-speed rail, autonomous electric vehicles, smart grid technology, shared mobility, powerful 5G networks and big data technologies toward 2030.