Chinese Economics Thread

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
And yet Asian stocks, especially Chinese stocks are down because Trump is preparing to sanction Chinese officials over Hong Kong. It would be really better for China's economy if China had better relations with the US.
Should let Trump be president for another 4 years. For all his faults, he has done more good for the world at large than any of the previous presidents in living memory. Going to miss him.
 

Litebreeze

Junior Member
Registered Member
Think of the principle concepts involved.

The medium of exchange, we can use gold, silver, or US Dollars for example.

But with US Dollars, going through the US banking system, those transactions can be sanctioned.

Therefore, if we do not want our transactions potential sanctioned, do not use US Dollars.

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That sentence that we find interesting, my opinion is that it is false. It is just sugarcoating it, that there is no effect, as of today I would believe.

Consider this. Suppose Iran telecom companies buys some Huawei equipment. Huawei would have some sort of office in Iran. The telecom company pays Huawei office in Iran with Iranian rial, suppose it is a check. Now that money is in Huawei Iranian bank account in rial.

Next, they should just exchange rial into RMB. Then the RMB leaves the country, via the DCEP or WeChat. No US Dollars are involved in this transaction.

DCEP and WeChat already operational, just the DCEP working out the details.

Mass adaptation has not happened for DCEP yet, but look how fast China went cashless as a society.

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Longer term, this is where the complicated parts are as they are rooted in history and the current system, the role of the US Dollar will change.

What does that mean, that is hard to say.

For example, the trade deal RCEP, in the long run they probably will not use dollars in that block. The EU, most of their trade is not in dollars inside the Euro block, it would be in Euros.

The Americans do not want to talk about this.

:) :oops:
The more the merrier, and maybe faster to make sanction meaningless. HK is discussing technical pilot testing the digital yuan with PBOC.
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Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have read the entire article and I strongly disagree with this statement:



US companies are not market driven anymore but are nurtured by the Federal Reserve's printing press. Asset bubble's, debt, zombie companies and moral hazard are spreading faster in the US than wildfires.

But even if just half what she wrote about China is true. Then this is indeed very disturbing. China too will end up like the US now in a couple of years time.

Paywall. Can someone copypaste the article?
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Wall Street Journal... anti-China. How many times have we've seen stories about how certain sectors of China's economy are about to collapse. Over twenty years? I'm still waiting for the giant banking collapse predicted from way back then. Did they get all their information from Gordan Chang because he too makes twenty year old accusations and predictions and nothing happens. This is all what the Trump administration only can do since his self-proclaimed toughest action in US history against China has done little. Scare people from investing into China because it's so bad in order to get the world to send all their money to the US. That's when the US had all the power. Wall Street hates China because New York City is losing its status as financial capital of the world. It'll be relegated to just a regional capital because of China, there are more places in the world to move money around. I remember some Wall Street guy said Single's Day was a big lie because he calculated that it was impossible China could handle that many orders and he was using how many deliveries one of those scooters you see delivering packages could make in day as a factor which he concluded was impossible. When you take a look at Hollywood, the studios are gung ho on entering the China market. You know who hates it? The Hollywood trades... their version of the Wall Street Journal. Why would they care? It's the business of Hollywood. They hate it because it dilutes Hollywood in general. China is a foreign market where Hollywood has no skin in the game meaning they make no money reporting on the gossip of actors Americans never even heard of. Why does Great Britain promote the Royals around the world? Because they make money from it. I read that the British tourism industry revolved all around the Royals. The more people interested in them, the more money they make. Naturally they're going to be protective when their nest egg is being threatened and they're going to work against those that threatened it. Remember it was the Wall Street Journal that had that story about China spying on Trump's iPhone and experts laughed at their claims. Right now there's a story in the right-wing media like FOX News of how this Chinese female spy was dating two US mayors and a US congressman yet the FBI have made no charges after years when this happened. And you know who wrote this story that Axios exposed? It's a woman who claims she was raped in China and after Trump charged all Mexicans were rapists, this female left-leaning journalist said all Chinese were rapists. Conflict of interests? The West charges the Chinese media is biased and is displayed in their reporting. The Wall Street Journal got journalism media awards for their anti-China reporting that made other news outlets envious so they started reporting only anti-China stories because they want to get awards too. You could actually see the shift in their media in their reporting of China when it happened. Their media is full of bias contrary to what they claim.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Tsinghua Semi should go bankrupt if they can't pay. Then their talents and marketshare will simply flow to their rivals to create true champions. Instead of throwing good money after bad supporting unprofitable companies. You need a little bit of darwinism here.

I agree. The company needs to be restructured. But the State needs to make sure that certain assets they have like YMTC survive and thrive.

Also, in the long run, the Spreadtrum/Unisoc side of the business might become important, but the company stock price is too inflated right now. Chinese government did well to let the bubble pop.
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
Well what's also significant is that China would become high-income in 3 years' time. All this anti-China talk about the country becoming stuck in the middle income trap should pass - there are many people who believe and actively wish for China to become stuck as a middle-income country.

"China is poised to become a high-income country even earlier, in 2023, and its income per capita should reach $28,000 in 2035 -- comparable to Taiwan's figure today but still shy of the Chinese government's assumed target of $30,000."

"And by 2035, China's economic scale, including Hong Kong, would reach $41.8 trillion -- only slightly less than the combined scale of the U.S. and Japan at that point, at $42.3 trillion."

Hmm, seems like JCER believes China will more than double by 2035

Xi Jinping was only expecting doubling of the Chinese economy by 2035
 

NiuBiDaRen

Brigadier
Registered Member
China’s Record Exports Are the Flipside of the Pandemic in the U.S.
Few would have pegged surging Chinese exports to the U.S. as a likely outcome for 2020 a year ago. But that looks likely to persist a while yet.

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Eighteen months ago, in the depths of the trade war with the U.S., few would have predicted that Chinese exports would be breaking records in 2020. But that is what has happened. And with wide-scale vaccine rollout in developed countries months away, that impressive strength has a way to run.

Chinese exports jumped 21.1% year over year in November—a rise that, excluding the annual Lunar New Year holiday period that typically falls sometime from January to February, was the strongest performance since 2011. The trade surplus also notched a high in dollar terms, hitting $75.4 billion.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Here is a good analysis for Alibaba's financials and growth forecast. Would be neat to see a presentation also on Tencent, Netease and Nio.

 
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