All Chinese should use a Chinese smartphone with the harmony OS, and Chinese apps, including those digital payment and RMB transfer apps, thereby avoiding the toxic US systems.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Stop! Let's back up a bit, all ... the ... way ... to ... the ... stone ... age!
Suppose I caught a rabbit, and cooked it, and you have some berries. You give me some berries and I give you a quarter of the rabbit to eat. We made a trade of goods (or services), we did not use money, we barter.
Fast forward and society moves on. Gold and silver were used to settle trade too. They were used as a medium of exchange.
Fast forward some more, and fiat currency was used to settle trade.
Fast forward to today, the way the global economic system works, it is based on trade, and the US Dollar is/was the linchpin for this world wide trade.
What we must be aware of in a general sense, is the role of the banks and the SWIFT system in this world wide trade. I do not know how it works specifically, you probably need to have a job on the inside, but all we need to know is that US Dollar transactions world wide, go through SWIFT and that goes through the US banking system, (which the CIA has its eyes on). One way of thinking about it, is that this is the plumbing. The money travels from a company, to the local bank, to SWIFT, then the US banking system.
Since the US banking system is under US jurisdiction, then they can do anything they want.
We can see how a digitized currency, or any currency that is not USD, or barter trade, can exist outside the plumbing for USD transactions.
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Huawei probably still does most of its international business in USD, but the Americans probably will not sanction that.
This is where the story gets complicated!
The interesting part is .. "where the U.S.’s financial sanctions would have little effect"
How long until that moment comes? I know digital yuan still in testing phase, till the next Olympic in China.
Fitch upgrades 2021 China growth forecast to 8%
Fitch now expects China’s gross domestic product to expand 8% in 2021, up from the 7.7% rate forecast in September.
“This would be well above our estimate of China’s long-term growth potential of around 5.5%, but is quite achievable from such a low base in 2020,” Fitch analysts Brian Coulton and Pawel Borowski wrote in the report released Thursday.
Fitch now expects China’s gross domestic product to expand 8% in 2021, up from the 7.7% rate forecast in September.
“This would be well above our estimate of China’s long-term growth potential of around 5.5%, but is quite achievable from such a low base in 2020,” Fitch analysts Brian Coulton and Pawel Borowski wrote in the report released Thursday.
Mr T
Senior Member
I'm sure that Tsinghua will find a way through for now, but it's worth keeping an eye on whether it can pay bonds due next year. If not then that will be a bad sign. If it can then it will have a fair bit of breathing room to get funds for 2023 and onwards.
Well, on the other hand, it can also be seen as a positive move in creating a more efficent market.
"
Speculation has increased that Beijing will let weaker SOEs fail, especially as the economy recovers from the pandemic-driven slump.
Such a drive would fit with the Communist Party’s strategy of giving markets greater sway as it seeks to build a stronger, more efficient economy.
"
D
Deleted member 15887
Guest
If you cannot access the article, here it is:
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TOKYO -- The Chinese economy is likely to surpass that of the U.S. in either 2028 or 2029, as the Asian giant emerges from the coronavirus pandemic in a position of strength, a new study by the Japan Center for Economic Research shows.
The nonprofit organization's sixth annual report on medium-term forecasts -- released on Thursday and titled "Asia in the coronavirus disaster: Which countries are emerging?" -- looks at the impact of COVID-19 across 15 Asia-Pacific economies through 2035.
It covers two main scenarios: a "baseline" or standard scenario, in which the crisis is a transient event like an earthquake, and an "aggravated" scenario that wreaks havoc on structural trends such as globalization, urbanization and innovation. Either way, China's quick success at containing the virus is expected to help it top the U.S. by the end of this decade.
"Due to the impact of the novel coronavirus, many countries are expected to suffer deeply negative growth rates for 2020. But while COVID-19 infections have spread to nearly every country worldwide, not all of them have been affected to the same degree," the report notes. "The differences seen now will make a considerable difference to countries' economic scale 15 years from now."
In 2020, only China, Vietnam and Taiwan are on track to maintain positive year-on-year growth rates. India's rate is likely to be negative by more than 10%, while the Philippines is expected to see a contraction of more than 8%. Hong Kong, Thailand, Canada, Malaysia and Singapore are all facing gross domestic product shrinkage of more than 6%.
But JCER's baseline scenario assumes that in four to five years, key economic variables return to trends seen before the global health crisis.
Despite China's economic slowdown in recent years, due to demographic challenges and declining investment, its economy is still forecast to be growing at a roughly 3% clip in 2035. In the U.S., sluggish productivity is seen holding the growth rate to about 1% in 2035.
JCER's standard scenario envisions China overtaking America in 2029. And by 2035, China's economic scale, including Hong Kong, would reach $41.8 trillion -- only slightly less than the combined scale of the U.S. and Japan at that point, at $42.3 trillion.
China is poised to become a high-income country even earlier, in 2023, and its income per capita should reach $28,000 in 2035 -- comparable to Taiwan's figure today but still shy of the Chinese government's assumed target of $30,000.
The baseline scenario also paints a bright picture for Vietnam, which is seen maintaining a growth rate of about 6% in 2035, thanks to strong exports. This would propel the Vietnamese economy past Taiwan's in 2035 in terms of scale, and make it the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia after Indonesia. Vietnam is poised to achieve upper middle-income status in 2023, with income per capita approaching $11,000 in 2035.
Taiwan, for its part, has been one of the most successful economies in fighting the coronavirus pandemic, but its growth rate is projected to drop to 1% in 2035 as a result of its aging population.
Over in India, the current growth rate will slow significantly due to the virus, but the country is likely to experience a rapid recovery and should be capable of achieving 5% growth in 2035.
"By 2033, our baseline scenario has India overtaking Japan in terms of its economic scale, but its income per capita would still not reach the upper middle-income level by 2035," the report says.
The impact of COVID-19, however, could prove to be far deeper and broader -- damaging not only today's economy but also affecting urbanization, trade openness, R&D spending and other factors over the medium term.
JCER's forecasting model draws on labor input, capital input and productivity to project GDP. And productivity is mainly determined by urbanization rates, R&D expenditures and the extent of open trade. So the research center also compiled an "aggravated" scenario that takes more serious coronavirus consequences into account.
The report notes the higher death rates in Europe and North America, as well as the persistent spread of the virus in South and Southeast Asia. In the aggravated scenario, the U.S. and Canada suffer the most damage -- along with India, the Philippines and Indonesia, the three of which count on large numbers of citizens working abroad and sending remittances home.
The report sees urbanization rates lagging behind the standard scenario and argues that "a slowdown in global trade would affect each country's degree of trade openness, while flows of immigrant workers would be obstructed as well."
On the other hand, this scenario assumes that digital innovation would continue to accelerate and that R&D spending would in fact be higher than in the standard scenario, except in the five hardest-hit countries.
The growth rates of the U.S., Vietnam, Singapore and others in 2035 would be significantly lower than those under the standard scenario, largely due to trade blockages. But while China would also be susceptible to the trade downturn, this would be offset by an increase in research outlays. China would thus still emerge in a strong position. Growth rates in Japan and Australia, meanwhile, would pick up thanks to R&D investment.
"All things considered, China's economic scale would surpass that of the U.S. in 2028, a year earlier than under the standard scenario," JCER says. "As of 2035, the gap with the U.S. would widen, bringing the economic scale of China including Hong Kong to $41.8 trillion -- slightly more than the $41.6 trillion for the U.S. and Japan combined."
In this case, India's economic scale would not catch up with Japan's even in 2035, because Japan would grow at a faster rate than under the standard scenario. Vietnam's economic scale in 2035 would still be smaller than that of Taiwan.
As for income per capita, China would enter high-income territory in 2023, as in the standard scenario. Its figure would be $28,000 in 2035, again matching the standard scenario but falling short of the $30,000 level.
Think of the principle concepts involved.
The medium of exchange, we can use gold, silver, or US Dollars for example.
But with US Dollars, going through the US banking system, those transactions can be sanctioned.
Therefore, if we do not want our transactions potential sanctioned, do not use US Dollars.
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That sentence that we find interesting, my opinion is that it is false. It is just sugarcoating it, that there is no effect, as of today I would believe.
Consider this. Suppose Iran telecom companies buys some Huawei equipment. Huawei would have some sort of office in Iran. The telecom company pays Huawei office in Iran with Iranian rial, suppose it is a check. Now that money is in Huawei Iranian bank account in rial.
Next, they should just exchange rial into RMB. Then the RMB leaves the country, via the DCEP or WeChat. No US Dollars are involved in this transaction.
DCEP and WeChat already operational, just the DCEP working out the details.
Mass adaptation has not happened for DCEP yet, but look how fast China went cashless as a society.
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Longer term, this is where the complicated parts are as they are rooted in history and the current system, the role of the US Dollar will change.
What does that mean, that is hard to say.
For example, the trade deal RCEP, in the long run they probably will not use dollars in that block. The EU, most of their trade is not in dollars inside the Euro block, it would be in Euros.
The Americans do not want to talk about this.
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The title should be modified slightly:
China was to overtake US economy by 2028-29 before COVID.
But the big change in forecast for India's economy is no surprise and realistic.