Chinese Aviation Industry

Equation said:

The fact that China has a significant program going and growing in the future is more than I can say about any other Asian nation even try attempting such an expensive persuite is a positive. Doubters and skeptics can point to any obstacles they want to but deep down they know it's all about the program that counts. Boeing and Airbus can not grow without access to the Chinese market that's why they are nervous about ARJ21 and C919 because of the strength of the program and it's potential growth.

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As I posted neither Boeing or Airbus gives a rat's a$$ about ARJ21 since neither companies are in the narrow body sector. I also doubt neither companies are worried about a plane that is still only on paper.
As for the Chinese market, since she is a member of WTO she will need to comply.

One more minor point, Mitsubishi Airplane is scheduled to make maiden flight of the MRJ this year which is a direct competitor of ARJ21. Again it may take time for her to gain type certificate but she already has 223 confirmed orders and another 184 as option orders so she has good appraisal so far.

SamuraiBlue said:

As I posted neither Boeing or Airbus gives a rat's a$$ about ARJ21 since neither companies are in the narrow body sector. I also doubt neither companies are worried about a plane that is still only on paper.
As for the Chinese market, since she is a member of WTO she will need to comply.

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But Boeing and Airbus do care about the next Chinese made plane because of their strong program and ability to make bigger and better planes in the future.

SamuraiBlue said:

One more minor point, Mitsubishi Airplane is scheduled to make maiden flight of the MRJ this year which is a direct competitor of ARJ21. Again it may take time for her to gain type certificate but she already has 223 confirmed orders and another 184 as option orders so she has good appraisal so far.

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ARJ21 is for the Chinese market and that is far larger than Japan.

SamuraiBlue said:

... and comac 919 is still only on paper and would still take significant time to gain a type certificate from Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the (European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).

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C-919 is no more "only on paper". The head of the fuselage has come off the fabrication line and later the center body too. The pictures are already out.

This is a thread about Chinese aviation industry and not about Japanese one or their market sizes. Please stay on topic.

SamuraiBlue, please calm down your critic of anything made in China in these thread, becomes it brings on the inevitable China vs Japan debates which moderators are not a fan of.

SamuraiBlue said:

I don't think neither Boeing or Airbus would be worried since ARJ21 is a narrow body jet in which neither companies are in direct competition and comac 919 is still only on paper and would still take significant time to gain a type certificate from Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or the (European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).

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Well said.

Without it the plane won't be able to leave the Chinese borders since no airport will allow a plane to land without it.
Comac 919 would also need to compete in fuel economy rating and after service in which both companies has a quantum leap distance over any starter uppers.

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Don't underestimate the domestic Chinese market, it'll be the largest in the world by a country mile. C-919 will be highly competitive inside China and would lock up large segments of the domestic airlines business. Going forward, if the 919 establish world-class safety and ease of use/maintenance records, then salespeople for Boing 737 and Airbus A320, should be worried.

Some people don't get that the major players don't want China to have a passenger airline industry at all. It doesn't matter what type of airliners are in competition. Maybe this is the part where people think China can't develop anything through research and development in newer aircraft design that would be in competition. How do you stop that? Making sure there is no foreign industry in competition.

Reality Check here. Comac has orders for but not sale of any ARJ21's and C919, Why? Not because the Major Powers say no, but because they have no track record in the case of the C919 and a terrible one for the ARJ21 with Delay delay delay and then some.
Second both are entered into a crowded market. "The Billing is China vs Airbus and Boeing." The Truth these are regional liners not the titanic. This is Entry level stuff not the giants. the only edge Comac has is that it's state owned, and in all likely hood that will push state owned and held airlines. Out side of China the markets are fair game, and that is what will make or break Comac It will either become reliant on the state and state owned orders or it will find a opening perhaps in some smaller airlines in Africa and Emerging markets.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Reality Check here. Comac has orders for but not sale of any ARJ21's and C919, Why? Not because the Major Powers say no, but because they have no track record in the case of the C919 and a terrible one for the ARJ21 with Delay delay delay and then some.
Second both are entered into a crowded market. "The Billing is China vs Airbus and Boeing." The Truth these are regional liners not the titanic. This is Entry level stuff not the giants. the only edge Comac has is that it's state owned, and in all likely hood that will push state owned and held airlines. Out side of China the markets are fair game, and that is what will make or break Comac It will either become reliant on the state and state owned orders or it will find a opening perhaps in some smaller airlines in Africa and Emerging markets.

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But the Titanics are worried about China's potential and they know China's program are more than capable of catching up and surpassing them within the next decade or two. The big picture is China has a very strong engineering programs, scientists, and industrial researchers to do it. Like I said many times before in anything....IT'S ALL about the program.

Equation said:

But the Titanics are worried about China's potential and they know China's program are more than capable of catching up and surpassing them within the next decade or two. The big picture is China has a very strong engineering programs, scientists, and industrial researchers to do it. Like I said many times before in anything....IT'S ALL about the program.

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Not Quite, The Titanics would worry if they managed to get any thing off the ground. look at there programs as they sit though Comac is flirting not producing yet. They have flirted before. , For example. but the important part is successes. Just as Brazil is the country of the Future that never gets there. many companies have competed in and failed in the Civil Aviation industry Some times spectacularly failed at that. Civil aviation is not military aviation, Patriotism only goes so far you need to get a customer base, Deliver to that base and prove that you can continue to deliver, Safely and Economically well still having a demand. IF something happens and your price climbs beyond the thin profit line, You might as well lock the doors. If the industry doesn't like your wears it's over, if the customer base dries up your birds are off to the bone yard. Airbus and Boeing have held there place in the industry despite other makers of long history like Lockheed and McDonald Douglas being knocked out.
So don't count them out and Don't assume automatic Victory.

If COMAC is successful, its exports will lie first in the developing world airlines of Africa, and the poorer Middle East, Central Asian, SE Asian and Central American airliners, if the C919 is cheap enough and easy/safe enough to operate that it displaces sales of used Boeing 737s and Airbus 320s (and maybe COMAC will score a few sales to some of the U.S./EU deep discount airlines in the near future).