Chinese Aviation Industry

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
As if that makes any difference. They already ban military sales. Because of Tiananmen remember?
They can just claim muh Xinjiang and do it.
Remember, Huawei is supposed to be part of the Chinese military according to these people, and thus liable to sanctions.
If they need to make an anti-competitive move, they will just come up with some BS excuse. Just wait and see.
With Russia, and MC-21, it started with dragging their feet on delivering components for months and years, then they banned purchase of composites "because of military applications".
With the Superjet and SaM146 it was like, if you want to increase the production rate of the hot section of the engines, you need to pay us more per unit so we can increase our production capacity, and that would end up making the engine way more expensive than buying the whole engine in the market from the competition. Oh and the hot section kept failing way more than it was supposed to. And customers complained about lack of reliability of engine as a result.

There are just so many ways to sabotage a project like this. Either by accident or by design.
 
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Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
why would US ban export of subsystems for C919? That would be a really stupid idea since Boeing would inevitably get a similar treatment and lose huge market share to Airbus.
Because the US government moves aren't necessarily rational. Would a rational person do what the US government did from 2018 onward? Start a trade war, then expand it to technology war and political war? US own private sector has largely begged the government not to do it and drop the tariffs and various blockades. And while one might have thought, before 2018, that the US private sector has way more clout than the actual government when it comes to making various laws stick - it seems that's not really always the case. When both Republicans and Democrats actually agree on something that has a patriotic tone to it - then all the money and all the lobbying in the world from the private sector won't really change their minds. Paradoxically, all those tariffs and blockades may make China even stronger in the long run - and that's something that the private sector seems to grasp but those lawmakers don't seem to be getting - they seem to be all about the short term impact.

So... banning subsystems for C919 is not out of the question. It may happen. You may think it's unlikely, I may think it's more than likely, but we'll see. It's definitely something Comac should take into account.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Because the US government moves aren't necessarily rational. Would a rational person do what the US government did from 2018 onward? Start a trade war, then expand it to technology war and political war? US own private sector has largely begged the government not to do it and drop the tariffs and various blockades. And while one might have thought, before 2018, that the US private sector has way more clout than the actual government when it comes to making various laws stick - it seems that's not really always the case. When both Republicans and Democrats actually agree on something that has a patriotic tone to it - then all the money and all the lobbying in the world from the private sector won't really change their minds. Paradoxically, all those tariffs and blockades may make China even stronger in the long run - and that's something that the private sector seems to grasp but those lawmakers don't seem to be getting - they seem to be all about the short term impact.

So... banning subsystems for C919 is not out of the question. It may happen. You may think it's unlikely, I may think it's more than likely, but we'll see. It's definitely something Comac should take into account.

You really want to compare Boeing to semiconductor companies? Boeing without Chinese sales could very well go bankrupt in their current environment. The implication of Boeing filing chapter 11 on US economy would be catastrophic. On top of this, Boeing would have to find new part suppliers to replace the Chinese ones. That would be hugely detrimental to their quarterly production and earnings. Boeing is probably China's biggest cheerleader in corporate America.

If we go back to chips, that's because there is no alternative to US suppliers. There is a real alternative to Boeing here in Airbus. Comparing apples to oranges here.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
You really want to compare Boeing to semiconductor companies? Boeing without Chinese sales could very well go bankrupt in their current environment. The implication of Boeing filing chapter 11 on US economy would be catastrophic. On top of this, Boeing would have to find new part suppliers to replace the Chinese ones. That would be hugely detrimental to their quarterly production and earnings. Boeing is probably China's biggest cheerleader in corporate America.

If we go back to chips, that's because there is no alternative to US suppliers. There is a real alternative to Boeing here in Airbus. Comparing apples to oranges here.
Incorrect. Apple and Tesla are China's biggest cheerleaders in corporate America. Boeing is probably third :p
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
problem is that COMAC testing is so slow that it will lose western suppliers anyway.
do COMAC have signed orders for upcoming Leap engines? as production limitations can happen. than there is opportunity cost of allocating so much skilled labor to a project that at best can only contribute to few percentage fleet replacement.


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While Safran is confident that it will be able to meet the production goal proposed by Airbus, it remains cautious. Andries noted that «it is not yet time to report on this particular issue as the supply chain has been severely compromised by the crisis.»
 

by78

General
AC313A iron bird has completed the third cycle of a 50-hour endurance test. Preparations for the maiden flight are now in the final stages.

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foxmulder

Junior Member
You really want to compare Boeing to semiconductor companies? Boeing without Chinese sales could very well go bankrupt in their current environment. The implication of Boeing filing chapter 11 on US economy would be catastrophic. On top of this, Boeing would have to find new part suppliers to replace the Chinese ones. That would be hugely detrimental to their quarterly production and earnings. Boeing is probably China's biggest cheerleader in corporate America.

If we go back to chips, that's because there is no alternative to US suppliers. There is a real alternative to Boeing here in Airbus. Comparing apples to oranges here.

Yes!. US would support Boeing and just bail it out. What is happening to Russia is a just prequel to what will happen to China. An event in South China Sea, or India border, or Taiwan.. Make no mistake China will be hit exactly like Russia hit. there is no rational decision making anymore.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Yes!. US would support Boeing and just bail it out. What is happening to Russia is a just prequel to what will happen to China. An event in South China Sea, or India border, or Taiwan.. Make no mistake China will be hit exactly like Russia hit. there is no rational decision making anymore.

Sure, an actual war would probably cause US to stop trading with China. But there Is no imminent war scenario right now. Absent of that, Boeing is going to be leading the movement to have regular peaceful trading with China. And guess what, the big businesses and lobbyists have a lot of power in America.

And more importantly, I don't really see how this has to do with the topic at hand. Everyone is saying that China should try to develop its own domestic suppliers. But the reality is that all of this takes time. I much rather have COMAC finish certifying C919 with foreign suppliers and enter production rather than wait even more years for domestic suppliers to be ready.
 
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