This post is NOT a direct reply to the above, I've just used the quote to put it in general context on what's COMAC building for the future.
I believe there's a fair likelihood that even the people within COMAC, and people within Chinese government can't agree on what China should be investing its money in - and what sort of planes might be needed in what numbers to which users in China, and users outside China.
Basically, we lack answers to the following questions:
- To which degree are the planes Chinese commercial aircraft sector is building/designing meant for domestic airlines and for foreign airlines?
- How are those future planes going to be sold and marketed? Will they come with no government subsidies? Or with heavy government subsidies? As we've seen, even somewhat limited government subsidies in the shape of tax breaks and special loans that Boeing/Airbus got resulted in political friction. One can imagine a situation in the current geopolitical climate if any sort of substantial subsidies are applied to Chinese made planes. It could lead to a chain of political events where such planes are simply not bought by airlines outside China.
- Even with some subsidies, to what degree and within what timeframe would Chinese made planes be commercially sound investments to foreign airlines? The data for narrowbodies from 2018 suggests aircraft costs are a fairly minor part of overall cost of operating a plane. Let's take 737-800 for example, a fairly modern but not cutting edge narrowbody. In aircraft per seat per mile costs said plane costs 46 cents, while the overall operating costs per seat per mile are 671 cents. So not even 10 percent of the cost is the plane itself. Crew costs 175 cents. Fuel costs 275 cents. Maintenance costs 126 cents and other non published costs make up the remaining 48 cents. Part of the maintenance costs would likely go to the plane's manufacturer, of course. But still most of those would likely not, as they're subject to hourly wages of domestic maintenance workers.
Another way to calculate costs is by block hours of actual usage.
The same B737-800 costs $299 per block hour. Crew costs $1139 and fuel costs $1787 per hour. Maintenance is up at $816 and the remaining costs are $315. Overall cost per block hour is $4355, which means plane costs are again well under 10 percent, closer to 5 percent.
Given such cost distribution - it's possible that even if the Chinese government would subsidize the entire plane and even if COMAC would be giving them for free - it's still possible that airlines would not be buying them unless they were sufficiently advanced that they keep some of the other expenses down.
Certainly fuel expenses are the most problematic. Without a cutting edge engine, most airplanes fail on the market. Leap-1A, in practice, shows some 9 to 10 percent reduction over CFM56-5B used on many airbus a320.
So fuel savings from the engine alone, over previous generation may amount to 27 cents per ASM. Which is over 58 percent of the cost of the plane itself.
Weight and aerodynamics of the plane can also influence fuel consumption. Unless they're cutting edge, planes with previous generation of design/construction may suffer additional 5 to 10% of fuel consumption penalty.
New planes and engines also strive to have lower maintenance costs.
Basically - if foreign sourced engines such as LEAP-1 are not available to Chinese narrowbodies, and if larger engines of similar tech level aren't available to future Chinese widebodies, such Chinese planes would most likely simply be uncompetitive, no matter the subsidy. Subsidies would likely not even be worth it, as they might/would incur additional wider political fallout.
For now, C919 has access to LEAP1. But in current geopolitical climate, that might change in an instant. I actually believe chances are higher that said engine licence will be revoked than not in the next 3 years. (despite all and any countermeasures China would do if that happens) but that's NOT the point of this post and I'd not want to discuss it further.
The bottom line is - domestic engines for both C919 and any future planes are an absolute necessity. But ones that are almost fully competitive with what the western engine makers are offering. Some slightly worse performance may be acceptable, if the price of the overall plane allows it - but they would still have to be almost on par. Same goes for the overall design and quality of aerodynamic solutions on the planes themselves.
One could even argue that the competitiveness would have to be even better, if planes are to sell outside China. Because if there are two planes, an airbus one and comac one for example, that provide the same profit - pretty much all airlines would pick the western maker because of perceived (or not) bonuses and security when it comes to sustaining the fleet of such planes over the decades to come.
When it comes to C919, it's a safer bet than any future chinese widebody for COMAC. It already has an engine in development. They may prove to be not as fuel efficient as LEAP1, but given enough years or a decade or two - that may change. More importantly, there are countless routes within China itself where C919 might be used. So much of potential geopolitical issues would not really be issues.
But longer range planes, ones flying to/from china and to/from other countries will not be so lucky. Those planes would likely include some of the C919, of course, but when it comes to widebodies, such flights would constitute basically 99% of the usage.
to be concluded...