Chinese Aviation Industry

kroko said:

according to this article china is buying 2 beriev-200 planes from russia and possibly more 2 in the future. I wonder why china is buying them, when ag-600 is already in prototype status. And why so few?

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this article refers a sale of 1 ka-32 (civilian version of ka-27), 1 mi-171 and 1 ansat from russia to a private company in china.

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The article did not say who in China the buyer is. It can be private company or local government.
So here is my guess.
Why buy Beriev-200? Because it meets the need? After all it may be a pure commercial civilian buy. Just like although Germany produce great cars locally, many Germans buy imported car as well. And frankly Beriev-200 is an impressive amphibian plane, a BMW in that category

Why so few? Because it may be a private company or ONE local government?

Regarding the rest of the sales, it is clearly stated being private purchase.

I see nothing to speculate.

Hendrik_2000 said:

You are clearly wrong here. You try to defend indefensible position clearly doesn't make you look smart. If that were true than Bombardier and Embraer would go bankrupt But they are thriving like never before .ARJ 21 might not be the most advanced regional jet but they are cheap enough with local supplier. For your information the get 23 new order and over 400 solid order So who care what Mitsubishi does!.

This paragraph should completely debunk your nonsense response. It clearly said the growth come from small town and regional airport and out of 15 airplane that they own 13 are regional plane

“By 2020 we want to have 40-50 planes,” said Lan Yu, brand manager at Guangxi Beibu Gulf Airlines, a newcomer set up by the government of southwestern Guangxi province and Tianjin Airlines in 2015. Tianjin Airlines is a unit of HNA, an aviation and shipping giant with more than $100 billion in assets.

But China’s new breed of carrier is focusing on second- and third-tier Chinese cities that have gleaming, newly built airports that helped stoke an 8.2 percent rise in domestic passenger traffic in 2015, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Guangxi Beibu will fly 13 Embraer E190 regional jets and three Airbus A320s to 28 Chinese cities by the end of 2016, Lan said. With average seat occupancy of more than 90% since flights began, Lan said the carrier was already profitable.

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Bombardier is constantly cutting people. It is also moving up to A319 class with the C-Series. Embraer is moving up to 100+ passenger also with E2. They are not sticking in the sub 100 passenger class.

And just because this one carrier is purchasing this, that doesn't mean this applies to the rest of the market. Looking at the world carrier market. The old regional jet is all getting phased out. The single aisle purchases are moving up to A321 class. That's a fact. Can you bring some numbers for your position?

asif iqbal said:

The fact the ARJ-21 has 400 orders in the bag is sufficient and enough said

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yes, because of the domestic carriers, comac will always get orders. That doesn't mean they need to continue in this class when C919 is a far more advanced project that competes in a market with more demand.

tphuang said:

Bombardier is constantly cutting people. It is also moving up to A319 class with the C-Series. Embraer is moving up to 100+ passenger also with E2. They are not sticking in the sub 100 passenger class.

And just because this one carrier is purchasing this, that doesn't mean this applies to the rest of the market. Looking at the world carrier market. The old regional jet is all getting phased out. The single aisle purchases are moving up to A321 class. That's a fact. Can you bring some numbers for your position?


yes, because of the domestic carriers, comac will always get orders. That doesn't mean they need to continue in this class when C919 is a far more advanced project that competes in a market with more demand.

Click to expand...

Hub and spoke network is standard network in the world . They are the most efficient system to utilize the Aircraft resource. I don't see any.one abandon it yet

It does required regional jet to fill up the seat.Someday you don't have enough passenger to filled up the larger jet .
Bombardier is loosing the market to Embraer and high development cost of the bigger jet. But not because the airline is moving to larger jet
After a very long and expensive development process, costing US$5.4 billion to date, and including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the small (110-125 seat) CS100 version of the CSeries received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015.

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At the time, the company had only 243 firm orders and letters of intent and commitment for another 360, with the most recent in September 2014.

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Bombardier produce close to 900 regional jet CRJ 700 sofar. the number does not include CRJ200


Orders and deliveries
Model Series Orders Deliveries Unfilled
order delivery unfilled
CRJ700 336 327 9
CRJ705 16 16 0
CRJ900 428 392 36
CRJ1000 68 47 21
848 782 66
Bombardier data as of 30 June 2016.

Recent orders
Date Type Customer Orders Options Notes
9 February 2012 CRJ900 6 5 BBD Press Release
10 February 2012 CRJ1000 6 18 BBD Press Release
19 March 2012 CRJ900 2 2 BBD Press Release
20 June 2012 CRJ1000 Nordic Aviation Capital 12 0 BBD Press Release
6 December 2012 CRJ900 40 30
6 December 2012 CRJ700 Undisclosed Chinese customer 7 0 BBD Press Release
19 June 2013 CRJ1000 3 0 BBD Press Release
2 December 2013 CRJ900 3 13 BBD Press Release
12 December 2013 CRJ900 30 40 Operated by American Airlines Group wholly owned subsidiary, PSA Airlines.
27 March 2014 CRJ700 Undisclosed customer from Latin America 1 0 Specialized Configuration / BBD Press Release
27 March 2014 CRJ900 2 0 BBD Press Release
31 March 2014 CRJ900 3 -3 Converted Conditional order / BBD Press Release
30 June 2014 CRJ900 16 8 Previously an undisclosed customer, revealed on 8 November 2014.
10 November 2014 CRJ900 1 0 BBD Press Release
1 March 2015 CRJ900 24 0 BBD Press Release
12 March 2015 CRJ900 7 0 To be operated for American Eagle.
2 October 2015 CRJ900 8 6 BBD Press Release. CityJet acquires the aircraft from customer that signed a firm agreement.
2 October 2015 CRJ700 Undisclosed existing customer 2 0 BBD Press Release
31 December 2015 CRJ900 10 -8 BBD Press Release.
25 April 2016 CRJ900 Trident Jet for 4 -4 BBD Press Release.
26 April 2016 CRJ900 for 5 5 BBD Press Release.
20 June 2016 CRJ900 10 0 BBD Press Release. BBD disclosed the previously unidentified customer on November 1, 2016.
Specifications

kroko said:

Reuters article about the joint sino-russian wide-body projet. A mock-up of the plane was presented, and more information about the projet.

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I'm not convinced by this joint project. Russia has very little to offer, what China needs, such as avionics and engine, will be supplied by the west just like the C919, and China can pretty much take care the rest alone.

LesAdieux said:

I'm not convinced by this joint project. Russia has very little to offer, what China needs, such as avionics and engine, will be supplied by the west just like the C919, and China can pretty much take care the rest alone.

Click to expand...

What does France "need" from the rest of Europe to produce an airliner?

Shared development cost, increased production numbers, reduced competition. And yeah, the Russians have better engines and more experience building airliners.

It seems like a perfectly sensible joint venture to me, from the perspective of both parties. It's just not the kind of one-way technology-for-cash "JV" that we've seen from China before.

Lethe said:

What does France "need" from the rest of Europe to produce an airliner?

Shared development cost, increased production numbers, reduced competition. And yeah, the Russians have better engines and more experience building airliners.

It seems like a perfectly sensible joint venture to me, from the perspective of both parties. It's just not the kind of one-way technology-for-cash "JV" that we've seen from China before.

Click to expand...

a joint project usually involves cooperation on three things: money, market and technology. so the only thing has relavance is technology. but Russian technology is not good enough, unless there's some kind of embargo against China, I don't see the point of a joint project.

ATR: China will need 300 new turboprops by 2035

This requirement can be filled with either regional jet or ATR depending on distance and availability of paved airport

ATR anticipates the Chinese market will need 300 turboprops over the next 20 years,the European turboprop manufacturer said Nov. 2.

The Franco-Italian company said at the Farnborough Airshow in July that it anticipated in China’s regional airline route network.

It put some detail on that assertion during Airshow China in Zhuhai Nov. 2, estimating that 800 new regional routes operated by turboprops would be created by 2035.

Of the 300 new turboprops forecast to be sold in the country within the next 20 years, it expects 270 will be in the 61-80-seat segment and 30 in the 40-60-seat category.

ATR believes there is “tremendous potential” for modern turboprops for short-haul route development in China, as regional aircraft today account for only some 2.5% of the total fleet operating in China, compared to a figure of 25% worldwide.

ATR anticipates that nearly 80% of the turboprops expected for delivery in China will be used to create new routes, particularly in less densely populated cities and regions, which have less developed road infrastructure, limitations in developing high-speed train networks, and lower traffic demand.

The company added that development of an improved air transportation network of airports is a clear aim of China’s government, which has forecast the development of some 70 new airports within the next five years, a substantial addition to the 200 currently operating.

“There is a real need to further develop regional connectivity in China, both between smaller towns and to and from smaller towns to the larger hubs,” ATR’s head of global sales John Moore said at Zhuhai. “Regional aviation is essential to provide more efficient connections and to fuel economic growth and development.”

ATR says it has already achieved significant success in the Asia-Pacific region, which overtook Europe in 2014 in terms of the largest fleet of ATRs in operation.

China’s Xian Aircraft Co. (XAC), a subsidiary of China Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC), produces several major components of the ATR aircraft, including fuselage sections for the 50-seat ATR 42 and the 70-seat ATR 72 and outer wing boxes for the ATR 42.

One question that remains is to what extent the new, domestically produced AVIC turboprop will eat into sales of foreign machines. Chinese airlines are likely to be encouraged to buy the local product.

However, ATW’s sister publication Aviation Daily reported during the Zhuhai show that AVIC had pushed back first flight of the underdevelopment MA700 by a year to 2018, with first deliveries not scheduled until 2020.

LesAdieux said:

a joint project usually involves cooperation on three things: money, market and technology. so the only thing has relavance is technology. but Russian technology is not good enough, unless there's some kind of embargo against China, I don't see the point of a joint project.

Click to expand...

UAC is the only aircraft producer outside of duopoly with proven capability to design&produce wide body.
And you reliably won't get anything threatening from the other two. With embargo or without.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Hub and spoke network is standard network in the world . They are the most efficient system to utilize the Aircraft resource. I don't see any.one abandon it yet

It does required regional jet to fill up the seat.Someday you don't have enough passenger to filled up the larger jet .
Bombardier is loosing the market to Embraer and high development cost of the bigger jet.

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But not because the airline is moving to larger jet
After a very long and expensive development process, costing US$5.4 billion to date, and including a US$3.2 billion writeoff, the small (110-125 seat) CS100 version of the CSeries received initial type certification from Transport Canada on 18 December 2015.

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At the time, the company had only 243 firm orders and letters of intent and commitment for another 360, with the most recent in September 2014.

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Bombardier produce close to 900 regional jet CRJ 700 sofar. the number does not include CRJ200

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Orders and deliveries
Model Series Orders Deliveries Unfilled
order delivery unfilled
CRJ700 336 327 9
CRJ705 16 16 0
CRJ900 428 392 36
CRJ1000 68 47 21
848 782 66
Bombardier data as of 30 June 2016.

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Recent orders
Date Type Customer Orders Options Notes
9 February 2012 CRJ900

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6 5 BBD Press Release

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10 February 2012 CRJ1000

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6 18 BBD Press Release

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19 March 2012 CRJ900

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2 2 BBD Press Release

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20 June 2012 CRJ1000 Nordic Aviation Capital

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12 0 BBD Press Release

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6 December 2012 CRJ900

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40 30
6 December 2012 CRJ700 Undisclosed Chinese customer 7 0 BBD Press Release

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19 June 2013 CRJ1000

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3 0 BBD Press Release

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2 December 2013 CRJ900

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3 13 BBD Press Release

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12 December 2013 CRJ900

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30 40 Operated by American Airlines Group wholly owned subsidiary, PSA Airlines.

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27 March 2014 CRJ700 Undisclosed customer from Latin America 1 0 Specialized Configuration / BBD Press Release

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27 March 2014 CRJ900

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2 0 BBD Press Release

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31 March 2014 CRJ900

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3 -3 Converted Conditional order / BBD Press Release

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30 June 2014 CRJ900

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16 8 Previously an undisclosed customer, revealed on 8 November 2014.

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10 November 2014 CRJ900

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1 0 BBD Press Release

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1 March 2015 CRJ900

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24 0 BBD Press Release

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12 March 2015 CRJ900

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7 0 To be operated for American Eagle.

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2 October 2015 CRJ900

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8 6 BBD Press Release. CityJet acquires the aircraft from customer that signed a firm agreement.

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2 October 2015 CRJ700 Undisclosed existing customer 2 0 BBD Press Release

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31 December 2015 CRJ900

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10 -8 BBD Press Release.

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25 April 2016 CRJ900 Trident Jet for

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4 -4 BBD Press Release.

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26 April 2016 CRJ900

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for

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5 5 BBD Press Release.

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20 June 2016 CRJ900

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10 0 BBD Press Release.

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BBD disclosed the previously unidentified customer on November 1, 2016.

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Specifications

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low cost carriers use point to point model.

Many large international airlines like Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, Cathay, Singapore, Turkish use one hub model.

And as for the aircraft that do use hub and spoke model, they are using larger aircraft. All the major domestic airlines in US are getting rid of the turboprops and MD-90 to larger planes. This is going to happen more and more in the coming years when there are more passengers, all the airport become slot or gate constrained.

As for your example of Bombardier, it got 3 orders this year. That's awesome. There are only 66 unfilled orders by your own numbers.

There is a reason it spent so much money on C Series. It knows the regional jet market is not the future. Even with the issues it had in development, it has quite a few orders now with C Series. It gets one order from Delta and it's for 75 + 50 options. It gets another order from aircraft for 45 + 30 options. That's more than the total orders they've gotten out of Q400 and CRJ series in the past 2 years.

And of the E2 series, the larger E190 and E195 are getting most of the orders.

The regional jet market and turboprop market is not disappearing, but it's not growing. The 100+ seat market is expanding rapidly. That's what the world is buying. That's what Chinese Airlines are buying.

Even among regional jets, ARJ-21 is a new product that does not offer anything over existing products. It will get domestic orders because government pressure, but that's the limit of its reach.

That's why COMAC is focusing on C919 series. Everyone knows where the market is.

tphuang said:

The regional jet market and turboprop market is not disappearing, but it's not growing. The 100+ seat market is expanding rapidly. That's what the world is buying. That's what Chinese Airlines are buying.

Even among regional jets, ARJ-21 is a new product that does not offer anything over existing products. It will get domestic orders because government pressure, but that's the limit of its reach.

That's why COMAC is focusing on C919 series. Everyone knows where the market is.

Click to expand...

QED! Kudos.