China's strategy in Korean peninsula

T
Trump threaten to annihilate North Korea if in his own words Rocket Man does anything stupid. I sincerely hope he is not talking about using nuclear weapons as in the words of Chinese academic on CGTN, the fall out would would affect South Korea, Russia, China and Japan. This is a very irresponsible statement coming from a world leader in the UN general assembly. I hope China is prepared for all contingency.

KIENCHIN said:

T
Trump threaten to annihilate North Korea if in his own words Rocket Man does anything stupid. I sincerely hope he is not talking about using nuclear weapons as in the words of Chinese academic on CGTN, the fall out would would affect South Korea, Russia, China and Japan. This is a very irresponsible statement coming from a world leader in the UN general assembly. I hope China is prepared for all contingency.

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LOL Naw, he's not gonna do squat as long as China stands ready. Trump and Kim are just two lunatics screaming empty threats at each other. Trump's own defense chief, Mattis just said he's not even considering shooting down NK test nukes yet (personally, I think it's cus they're not that confident it'll work and it's gonna be REAL embarrassing if they try an intercept and miss). Nobody takes Trump seriously; he's like an angry cartoon mascot.

And by the way, "Rocket Man" is a beautiful, flattering nickname to be proud of for someone whose family spent 3 generations with the meager resources of one of the most impoverished countries in the world trying to perfect missile technology to defend their country with. If I was the scientist who perfected ICBM technology for my country, I'd wanna be called Rocket Man. I'd want that on my mailbox, my front door, my license plate, all my name-tags for the events I attend, tattooed on my back/chest, and finally, engraved on my tombstone to commemorate my glorious contribution. It is in stark contrast to "Fat Kim 3", which he's called in China.

delft said:

NK wants reunification with SK. The precondition is that SK ceases to be a satellite of US, a position it has had since US installed the barbarous dictator Singman Rhee. Until 2015 the US president was Commander-in-Chief of the SK armed forces. After the departure of US forces reunification might take half a century but they will be on the road. The first development would be building roads, railways, etc. between SK and Russia and China. Russia discussed these matters with the delegations of NK and SK at the recent economic conference in Vladivostock.
This would remove all danger of war between US and NK but such economic cooperation of Russia, China and both parts of Korea is of course anathema to US.

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I don't really see NK wanting reunification with SK at this time. The power disparity is just too large, which means most scenarios result in the end of the Kims.

And one of the key issues is that the US leaving SK, means that SK will fall into a Chinese "sphere of influence". Currently the US is just too wedded to the idea of primacy in the Western Pacific.

And I would discount Russia from the discussions.

They have a population and economy which is some 10x smaller than China, plus Russia's centre of gravity is in Europe, not in the sparsely populated Russian Far East which only shares a tiny land border and has negligible trade relations with NK. Economically, Russia is also roughly 10x smaller than the USA.

manqiangrexue said:

LOL Naw, he's not gonna do squat as long as China stands ready. Trump and Kim are just two lunatics screaming empty threats at each other. Trump's own defense chief, Mattis just said he's not even considering shooting down NK test nukes yet (personally, I think it's cus they're not that confident it'll work and it's gonna be REAL embarrassing if they try an intercept and miss). Nobody takes Trump seriously; he's like an angry cartoon mascot.

And by the way, "Rocket Man" is a beautiful, flattering nickname to be proud of for someone whose family spent 3 generations with the meager resources of one of the most impoverished countries in the world trying to perfect missile technology to defend their country with. If I was the scientist who perfected ICBM technology for my country, I'd wanna be called Rocket Man. I'd want that on my mailbox, my front door, my license plate, all my name-tags for the events I attend, tattooed on my back/chest, and finally, engraved on my tombstone to commemorate my glorious contribution. It is in stark contrast to "Fat Kim 3", which he's called in China.

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I doubt the Kims are thinking about defending their country. If they had been, they would have done SOMETHING ELSE over those 3 generations instead of bankrupting themselves with the military.

There is being proud and wanting to be independent. But then there is also recognising reality and the compromises that go need to go with it.

If they had started reforming after the end of the USSR (like Vietnam did), then they would actually be secure instead of having to be paranoid today.

AndrewS said:

I doubt the Kims are thinking about defending their country. If they had been, they would have done SOMETHING ELSE over those 3 generations instead of bankrupting themselves with the military.

There is being proud and wanting to be independent. But then there is also recognising reality and the compromises that go need to go with it.

If they had started reforming after the end of the USSR (like Vietnam did), then they would actually be secure instead of having to be paranoid today.

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Really? Does that follow any common sense at all? How do you remain in power as the ruler of a country, if you failed to defend it and it was taken over by hostile foreign forces? This is the kind of basic logic that western media wants you to bypass as you believe everything they say in their quest to demonize their rivals.

Nobody here disagrees that the Kims are incompetent at country-building so I don't understand why you keep bringing that up.

manqiangrexue said:

Really? Does that follow any common sense at all? How do you remain in power as the ruler of a country, if you failed to defend it and it was taken over by hostile foreign forces? This is the kind of basic logic that western media wants you to bypass as you believe everything they say in their quest to demonize their rivals.

Nobody here disagrees that the Kims are incompetent at country-building so I don't understand why you keep bringing that up.

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I'm saying that their primary motivation is staying in power, which happens to require them to have complete control over their country.

Yes, they do have to defend it from hostile foreign forces (note that their ideology also classifies China as hostile).

At the same time, if they could stay in power by selling out, I think they would do that as well.

AndrewS said:

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manqiangrexue said:

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North Korea used to be the USSR's petrochemical-processing and plastics production arm. Back in the 1970s and 80s, North Korea used to be wealthier than China, so much so that Korean-speaking Chinese would cross the border to look for work and money in North Korea. Unbelievable as it may be now, this did happen.

So when the USSR fell, North Korea lost its biggest export market, energy source and its nuclear umbrella. Kim went to China then, to ask for a new nuclear umbrella; China said no. North Korea then worked with the USA (under the Clinton administration) to hammer out a peace-deal, accepted inspectors and all that. The USA even started lifting sanctions. This was the high-point of USA-NK relations.

So when Bush came in 2001 and came out with his "Axis of Evil", which included Iraq, Iran and North Korea, in 2002, well, everyone thought it was just blowhard talk, right? So Bush invaded Iraq to make him look like he meant business. So North Korea looked at this and thought, well, better keep my nukes. When Obama came in there was some Hope for Change -- then the Arab Spring happened, and Obama bombed Libya (remember Mubarak, Gaffadi and al-Assad used to be mates with NATO, until they weren't). So much for that.

At this point, I think it will be too late for any actual de-nuclearisation deal. North Korea won't drop its work for nothing -- the Iranians agreed to their "nuclear deal" when they didn't have nukes, but they haven't given up their ballistic missile program. The best we can expect is to keep the status quo -- if the USA wants to "declare victory and leave", I can see them giving South Korea a few nukes and making a smaller India/Pakistan situation.

now I read
Chinese MOFA says DPRK issue should be resolved peacefully

2017-09-20 21:37 GMT+8

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Lu Kang, spokesman of Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Wednesday that UN resolutions make it clear that the Korean Peninsula issue should be resolved through peaceful and diplomatic means.

Lu made the remarks one day after

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, in which he warned that his country may "have no choice but to totally destroy" the DPRK unless it backs down from its nuclear position.

Lu has reiterated that China hopes all parties will exercise restraint when they fully and comprehensively implement the UN resolutions on the DPRK.

He has also called on all parties to create more opportunities for putting the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue back on the table for dialogue and consultation.

Earlier this month, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a

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to impose fresh sanctions on the DPRK over its nuclear test on Sept. 3, which violated of previous Security Council resolutions.

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AndrewS said:

I'm saying that their primary motivation is staying in power, which happens to require them to have complete control over their country.

Yes, they do have to defend it from hostile foreign forces (note that their ideology also classifies China as hostile).

At the same time, if they could stay in power by selling out, I think they would do that as well.

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First of all, this is all your conjecture now, what their primary motive is or what they would do to stay in power (sell out their country); basically, you're just imagining bad things about them in order to not give them credit for what they actually did, which is develop nuclear weapons to defend their country with, even against the world's deadliest and most aggressive superpower. That's balls right there, no discounts, no illusions, no moot conjecturing.

By the way, I don't agree with the assessment of their greed and selfishness at all. I agree only that they are incompetent and stupid at country-building. If they were as greedy or selfish as Western media claims, they would have actually sold North Korea out the the US and made a deal that would allow them to stay in power as a US puppet and the Kims would be plenty more wealthy than they are now for it. Instead, they are poorer and their leadership is in jeopardy (of being destroyed by a hostile power that has the strength to do it) specifically because they refuse to submit and the Kims would NOT sell out their country for greater wealth or more stable rule. Kim Jong Un had the perfect opportunity to sell out to the US when his father died and instead, he decided to pursue his father's path. That is real world evidence against your imagination of how low they would stoop to remain in power.

manqiangrexue said:

First of all, this is all your conjecture now, what their primary motive is or what they would do to stay in power (sell out their country); basically, you're just imagining bad things about them in order to not give them credit for what they actually did, which is develop nuclear weapons to defend their country with, even against the world's deadliest and most aggressive superpower. That's balls right there, no discounts, no illusions, no moot conjecturing.

By the way, I don't agree with the assessment of their greed and selfishness at all. I agree only that they are incompetent and stupid at country-building. If they were as greedy or selfish as Western media claims, they would have actually sold North Korea out the the US and made a deal that would allow them to stay in power as a US puppet and the Kims would be plenty more wealthy than they are now for it. Instead, they are poorer and their leadership is in jeopardy (of being destroyed by a hostile power that has the strength to do it) specifically because they refuse to submit and the Kims would NOT sell out their country for greater wealth or more stable rule. Kim Jong Un had the perfect opportunity to sell out to the US when his father died and instead, he decided to pursue his father's path. That is real world evidence against your imagination of how low they would stoop to remain in power.

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I need to amend this so people don't think I'm saying that the Kims aren't greedy or selfish. They are; or they wouldn't live in luxury as their people live in poverty, but I simply mean that they their sense of nationalism prevails over their sense of greed or selfishness and that's why they are factually not sell-outs.