China's strategy in Korean peninsula

manqiangrexue said:

A powerful military is feared by its enemies, therefore its citizens are safe and proud, etc... it guards its national prosperity and that prosperity is used to build a better military. Can't have one without the other, it's a cycle. I think we agree on what the military is for; we're just putting it in different ways.

I never said I liked the way the Kims rule. It's ridiculous that they've made a fake religion with people thinking that the ruling family is divine or that Kim Il Sung rules from the grave. It's also stupid that they make empty threats all the time instead of silently building their power. Ideally, they should follow China's example, then they wouldn't be so financially inept to support their military. But with all those mistakes, at least they didn't make the biggest one and become somebody's dog.

One thing they got right is that North Korea needs to be able to defend itself (with nukes, if threatened with nukes) and doesn't bow to the threats of others, not even the United States.

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Yes. A powerful military is feared by its enemies. But fear only gets you so far and it would be a far better world if countries did not see each other as mortal enemies. However, that doesn't mean countries still aren't competitors, in the realms of economics/politics/military.

Everything we've seen is really about the Kim dynasty retaining power, not what is best for the people. If they had a modicum of that sense of duty, they would have followed China's reform example long ago (we're now on the 3rd generation of Kims) and invited in Chinese investments.

By continuing on that path, they will never escape being a wild and starving dog, as you put it.

From that point of view, it would be a mercy for the North Korean people if China tacitly supported the removal of Fatty Kim by more progressive elements in North Korea.

Remember that the North Korea Juche ideology (self-reliance / racial purity) is a direct descendant from the insane ideology implemented by the bureaucrats of Fascist Japan back during WW2.

now I read
Xi, Trump talk upcoming China visit, Korean Peninsula over phone
Xinhua| 2017-09-18 23:25:14

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, discussed Trump's visit to China later this year and the Korean Peninsula situation over phone late Monday.

In the phone conversation, Xi said China and the United States share extensive common interests and have seen sound momentum of exchanges and cooperation in various areas at present.

Xi said he is happy to maintain communications with Trump on a regular basis over topics of mutual concern.

He also said Beijing attaches great importance to Trump's state visit to China, and called on both sides to work closely so as to ensure a fruitful trip and inject new impetus into the development of China-U.S. relations.

The two sides need to strengthen high-level contacts and contacts at all levels, well operate the first round of China-U.S. social and cultural dialogue, as well as law enforcement and cyber security dialogue, and extend bilateral cooperation in all fields, Xi noted.

For his part, Trump said he is looking forward to paying the state visit to China, hoping that the trip can strongly move bilateral ties further forward.

It is satisfactory for the U.S. and Chinese heads of state to maintain close contacts and a fine working relationship, Trump said.

This year, both the United States and China have important domestic agendas, the U.S. president noted, expressing the hope that these agendas will all be smoothly carried out.

In the phone conversation, Xi also expressed sympathy and solicitude to Trump and the American people for the hurricane attacks on the United States over the past few days, and Trump expressed thanks therefor.

The two leaders also exchanged views on the current situation on the Korean Peninsula.

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AndrewS said:

Yes. A powerful military is feared by its enemies. But fear only gets you so far and it would be a far better world if countries did not see each other as mortal enemies. However, that doesn't mean countries still aren't competitors, in the realms of economics/politics/military.

Everything we've seen is really about the Kim dynasty retaining power, not what is best for the people. If they had a modicum of that sense of duty, they would have followed China's reform example long ago (we're now on the 3rd generation of Kims) and invited in Chinese investments.

By continuing on that path, they will never escape being a wild and starving dog, as you put it.

From that point of view, it would be a mercy for the North Korean people if China tacitly supported the removal of Fatty Kim by more progressive elements in North Korea.

Remember that the North Korea Juche ideology (self-reliance / racial purity) is a direct descendant from the insane ideology implemented by the bureaucrats of Fascist Japan back during WW2.

Click to expand...

We're getting closer together. First, though, remember that China and North Korea were remarkably similar in the days of Mao Zedong/ Kim Il Sung. I believe that a crucial factor to China's modern day success, the person who made it possible for China to become what it is today as opposed to a huge North Korea, is the American pilot who dropped a bomb on a small cabin in North Korea killing Mao Zedong's son, who was there hiding and pretending to serve in the military. This made it impossible for Mao to pass his powers on by bloodline (since his grandson was only a child) and allowed China to be ruled by merit as opposed to blood.

That said, North Korea has many many things wrong, but 1 thing right. If only they wanted to build their power silently as opposed to being loudmouths, they would make everything much easier.

China did try what you mentioned in bold. The result was the Kim caught on to the plan and assassinated his own brother, who was China's choice to replace him, and since then, they've not trusted Beijing. I can't really blame them for that though LOL

But I believe I've said this before. If Chinese intelligence determines that war is inevitable between NK and SK/US due to North Korean provocation (as opposed to American provocation), China should strike preemptively and take out North Korean nuclear sites/military bases, and from there, do a Crimea and take it in as a province severely in need of development.

AndrewS said:

Everything we've seen is really about the Kim dynasty retaining power, not what is best for the people. If they had a modicum of that sense of duty, they would have followed China's reform example long ago (we're now on the 3rd generation of Kims) and invited in Chinese investments.

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Actually, North Korea is undergoing economic reform. Its growth is at an all-time high. There are a lot of Chinese companies just fighting to do business in North Korea.

Retaining power and doing what's best for the people are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary, in the long run, one is necessary for the other. As much as we might not like him, Kim Jong-un has proven to be a shrewd ruler. Compare his record with that of his father, or even his grandfather, and you can see that NK is in a better position than ever before.

While his anti-China policies galls some of us, myself included, objectively speaking, those were policies that strengthened NK independence.

manqiangrexue said:

We're getting closer together. First, though, remember that China and North Korea were remarkably similar in the days of Mao Zedong/ Kim Il Sung. I believe that a crucial factor to China's modern day success, the person who made it possible for China to become what it is today as opposed to a huge North Korea, is the American pilot who dropped a bomb on a small cabin in North Korea killing Mao Zedong's son, who was there hiding and pretending to serve in the military. This made it impossible for Mao to pass his powers on by bloodline (since his grandson was only a child) and allowed China to be ruled by merit as opposed to blood.

That said, North Korea has many many things wrong, but 1 thing right. If only they wanted to build their power silently as opposed to being loudmouths, they would make everything much easier.

China did try what you mentioned in bold. The result was the Kim caught on to the plan and assassinated his own brother, who was China's choice to replace him, and since then, they've not trusted Beijing. I can't really blame them for that though LOL

But I believe I've said this before. If Chinese intelligence determines that war is inevitable between NK and SK/US due to North Korean provocation (as opposed to American provocation), China should strike preemptively and take out North Korean nuclear sites/military bases, and from there, do a Crimea and take it in as a province severely in need of development.

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On dynastic succession in China, I think it is questionable that Mao Zedong's son would have been allowed to succeed him. There are multiple geographic power centres and CCP founder dynasties in China, and that the provinces and the military regions have a remarkable amount of autonomy from Beijing. Plus the Communist Party bureaucracy/meritocracy actually functions, when compared to the one-person rule in North Korea.

The exiled Kim was always adamant that he wanted nothing to do with North Korean politics anymore, but it was useful for many countries to have him around as a backup.

And I would disagree on adding North Korea as another province, as I don't think it's worth the aggravation.

solarz said:

Actually, North Korea is undergoing economic reform. Its growth is at an all-time high. There are a lot of Chinese companies just fighting to do business in North Korea.

Retaining power and doing what's best for the people are not mutually exclusive. On the contrary, in the long run, one is necessary for the other. As much as we might not like him, Kim Jong-un has proven to be a shrewd ruler. Compare his record with that of his father, or even his grandfather, and you can see that NK is in a better position than ever before.

While his anti-China policies galls some of us, myself included, objectively speaking, those were policies that strengthened NK independence.

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North Korea's all time high of 3.9% growth in 2016 is not indicative of meaningful economic reform nor significant investments. Just using common sense policies should see North Korea easily hit 6%.

I agree that retaining power and doing what's best for the people is not mutually exclusive. Just look at what the CCP and Singapore have done. But the big difference is that the systems there are broadly meritocratic/competitive, and can handle a transfer of power between factions/parties/individuals.

The track record of the Kims demonstrates that none of them have the acumen to deliver for their people. How can they, given the utterly paranoid and crazy system they have created to perpetuate their rule? They can't afford to have a meritocratic or competitive system which delivers, because those alternative power centres and factions would eventually remove the Kims from power.

AndrewS said:

On dynastic succession in China, I think it is questionable that Mao Zedong's son would have been allowed to succeed him. There are multiple geographic power centres and CCP founder dynasties in China, and that the provinces and the military regions have a remarkable amount of autonomy from Beijing. Plus the Communist Party bureaucracy/meritocracy actually functions, when compared to the one-person rule in North Korea.

The exiled Kim was always adamant that he wanted nothing to do with North Korean politics anymore, but it was useful for many countries to have him around as a backup.

And I would disagree on adding North Korea as another province, as I don't think it's worth the aggravation.

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Land mass expansion is always worth it. If SK/USA didn't see need to consider Chinese aggravation at THAAD, then China certainly needs not consider their aggravation at all... unless by "aggravation" you meant those which Beijing must deal with associated with assimilating new territory/people.

If they ask China on a daily basis to solve their problems for them, they'd best not complain of the manner in which it is done if China decides to oblige them at all. It is only China taking its payment. After all, they didn't mean for China to do this for free, did they? LOL

So who are we to play god and decide who deserves to rule and who doesn't?

NK under the Kims' is a brutal and often barbaric place (and believe me, I have heard first hand accounts of brutal acts beyond even what is mentioned by the western media), but the same can be said of many other places today like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Myanmar and many others.

Even places like the UK, France, America and China had pretty disgusting phases in their history where horrific things (even by the relative standards of the time) were normalised.

So, either you support a new crusade to unite the entire world under one set of rules and standards, or you are hypocritical for suggesting some regimes need to be toppled, yet others that are just as bad should get a pass because they are useful to you.

Yes, the Kim is awful and the world would be a better place without him in charge, but I dare say most Americans will at least secretly agree the same sentiments apply to Trump. And the cost of trying to remove Kim militarily is unthinkable, which is precisely why he is hell bent on getting nukes and ICBMs, to make that cost even higher.

For him, nothing matters as much as his survival, which is why he would happily see millions of his countrymen starve to death if that is what it takes for him to get a reliable nuclear second strike capability as the ultimate deterrence against regime change.

As distasteful as China find him, China is still bound by treaty and self interest to protect NK from foreign annexation or destruction, because no matter how bad NK is under Kim, it will be a thousand times worse for everyone in the region to have a Libya or Syria situation develop in NK.

Beijing is already within range of NK nuclear missiles, but you don't see the Chinese loosing it over the fact because they know that Kim is not crazy as the western media loves to caricature him.

He is brutal, heartless and above all, incredibly selfish and self serving. Which is why he will not launch a nuclear first strike, because that is the only scenario where he dies screaming in a fireball despite having his precious nukes and ICBMs.

manqiangrexue said:

Land mass expansion is always worth it. If SK/USA didn't see need to consider Chinese aggravation at THAAD, then China certainly needs not consider their aggravation at all... unless by "aggravation" you meant those which Beijing must deal with associated with assimilating new territory/people.

If they ask China on a daily basis to solve their problems for them, they'd best not complain of the manner in which it is done if China decides to oblige them at all. It is only China taking its payment. After all, they didn't mean for China to do this for free, did they? LOL

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Land mass expansion is always worth it

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That is certainly not correct, not in the slightest. Otherwise in the aftermath of the Sino-Indian war, why would Chinese general have told the Indian general:

"China already has so many poor people. Why would we want to be responsible for even more?"

AndrewS said:

That is certainly not correct, not in the slightest. Otherwise in the aftermath of the Sino-Indian war, why would Chinese general have told the Indian general:

"China already has so many poor people. Why would we want to be responsible for even more?"

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Cus he didn't feel like he could organize a mass exodus of all the Indians westward and keep their land to be populated by Chinese? If you had to take the people too, then you really have to think about it. But with North Korea, I think it should be fine. Not my call, but if it were, I'd say it should be ok. China already has a North Korean ethnic minority to help with the transition and North Koreans interbred with Chinese will look like any other Chinese, which is excellent for assimilation. This is not true for Indians. Finally, North Korea has low population density, relatively large unexploited territory, very good for building new cities giving Chinese construction another kick boost. Once again, I say it's worth it but what do I know compared to the guys in ZhongNanHai? I'm all for what they decide.