China's strategy in Korean peninsula

AndrewS · Sep 18, 2017

plawolf said:
So who are we to play god and decide who deserves to rule and who doesn't?

NK under the Kims' is a brutal and often barbaric place (and believe me, I have heard first hand accounts of brutal acts beyond even what is mentioned by the western media), but the same can be said of many other places today like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Myanmar and many others.

Even places like the UK, France, America and China had pretty disgusting phases in their history where horrific things (even by the relative standards of the time) were normalised.

So, either you support a new crusade to unite the entire world under one set of rules and standards, or you are hypocritical for suggesting some regimes need to be toppled, yet others that are just as bad should get a pass because they are useful to you.

Yes, the Kim is awful and the world would be a better place without him in charge, but I dare say most Americans will at least secretly agree the same sentiments apply to Trump. And the cost of trying to remove Kim militarily is unthinkable, which is precisely why he is hell bent on getting nukes and ICBMs, to make that cost even higher.

For him, nothing matters as much as his survival, which is why he would happily see millions of his countrymen starve to death if that is what it takes for him to get a reliable nuclear second strike capability as the ultimate deterrence against regime change.

As distasteful as China find him, China is still bound by treaty and self interest to protect NK from foreign annexation or destruction, because no matter how bad NK is under Kim, it will be a thousand times worse for everyone in the region to have a Libya or Syria situation develop in NK.

Beijing is already within range of NK nuclear missiles, but you don't see the Chinese loosing it over the fact because they know that Kim is not crazy as the western media loves to caricature him.

He is brutal, heartless and above all, incredibly selfish and self serving. Which is why he will not launch a nuclear first strike, because that is the only scenario where he dies screaming in a fireball despite having his precious nukes and ICBMs.

There's a big flaw in your argument about non-interference.

Remember that China does play God by subsidising NK in the first place, rather than just operating on a commercial basis in many other places.

If China was really neutral, then:

1. North Korea would already be bankrupt and its military/industrial capacity crippled. That is simply the result of its Juche ideology and having to pay a lot money for Chinese imports on commercial terms. Then there are the preferential items and technology that North Korea received from China, which it cannot obtain from anyone else in the world.

or

2. North Korea would have to abandon its Juche ideology, which means means real reforms at a minimum and definitely much more interaction with the outside world.

I also think that there is no way that North Korea can descend into a Libya/Syria type situation. There simply aren't the divisions in North Korea society that exist in Libya/Syria, which have caused them to fragment. Nor would North Korea be left alone and neglected for years like Libya/Syria. At a minimum, South Korea and China would step in to stop that happening, and they both have the capacity and political will to either stabilise or destabilise NK.

Otherwise I think the rest of your post is accurate.

AndrewS · Sep 18, 2017

manqiangrexue said:
Cus he didn't feel like he could organize a mass exodus of all the Indians westward and keep their land to be populated by Chinese? If you had to take the people too, then you really have to think about it. But with North Korea, I think it should be fine. Not my call, but if it were, I'd say it should be ok. China already has a North Korean ethnic minority to help with the transition and North Koreans interbred with Chinese will look like any other Chinese, which is excellent for assimilation. This is not true for Indians. Finally, North Korea has low population density, relatively large unexploited territory, very good for building new cities giving Chinese construction another kick boost. Once again, I say it's worth it but what do I know compared to the guys in ZhongNanHai? I'm all for what they decide.

There are 25million people in North Korea.

Most of them have been brainwashed into thinking the Kims are gods.
And you've got a Juche mentality which is xenophobic to the extreme from a racial purity perspective, even to China and SK.

That is not a good basis for a population which can be easily assimilated by China. So I think it best to let the South Koreans deal with most of that headache.

China would end up doing a lot of the rebuilding in North Korea anyway.

AndrewS · Sep 18, 2017

manqiangrexue said:
Cus he didn't feel like he could organize a mass exodus of all the Indians westward and keep their land to be populated by Chinese? If you had to take the people too, then you really have to think about it. But with North Korea, I think it should be fine. Not my call, but if it were, I'd say it should be ok. China already has a North Korean ethnic minority to help with the transition and North Koreans interbred with Chinese will look like any other Chinese, which is excellent for assimilation. This is not true for Indians. Finally, North Korea has low population density, relatively large unexploited territory, very good for building new cities giving Chinese construction another kick boost. Once again, I say it's worth it but what do I know compared to the guys in ZhongNanHai? I'm all for what they decide.

North East India is no prize, and such an forced exodus of Indians from the area would definitely be a colonial endeavour and ethnic cleansing by the Chinese Army. Remember that modern Chinese identity was created as a reaction against evil imperialist colonial powers...

But nowadays, if China and India did get into a war, there is a case for at least parts of North East India to be supported as independent states or incorporated into China. It's common for the people there to face real discrimination when elsewhere in India because they look like yellow East Asians rather than brown Indians. I imagine its similar to how blacks were treated in the Southern USA for a long time after Martin Luther King and segregation.

Furthermore we're seeing parts of NE India really embracing the Korean (Yellow) Hallyu wave and explicitly rejecting Hindu (Brown) Bollywood culture, which is not too surprising given that level of discrimination.

And there are political leaders in NE India who openly muse in public that they would be better off ruled by China, instead of the incompetent government in Delhi. NE india is really poor when compared even to the rest of India, which was deliberate policy by Delhi.

And territory is no longer the basis of wealth in the modern world with a liberal trade environment. The developed East Asian Economic Tigers are prime examples. Wealth is now based on having a hi-tech productive/efficient economy with hi-tech industries.

solarz · Sep 18, 2017

AndrewS said:
There's a big flaw in your argument about non-interference.

Remember that China does play God by subsidising NK in the first place, rather than just operating on a commercial basis in many other places.

There's a huge difference between aid and regime change. One maintains the status quo, the other throws the nation into chaos, with the results far more likely to be disastrous than positive.

China values stability, its policies are aimed to keeping NK stable.

manqiangrexue · Sep 18, 2017

AndrewS said:
There are 25million people in North Korea.

Most of them have been brainwashed into thinking the Kims are gods.
And you've got a Juche mentality which is xenophobic to the extreme from a racial purity perspective, even to China and SK.

That is not a good basis for a population which can be easily assimilated by China. So I think it best to let the South Koreans deal with most of that headache.

China would end up doing a lot of the rebuilding in North Korea anyway.

Ah, true true, there are definitely challenges but are they difficult enough to merit losing land the size of North Korea over? Remember, money saved is money earned and territory not taken (when the opportunity is present) is territory lost. Firstly, the war might be so savage that those loyal to Kim may mostly follow him to the grave, especially if they have the mentality that you describe. Then, it is to be considered that North Koreans are so poor, how would they react if they were suddenly lifted to better living conditions and given the opportunity to rise in life? This could be especially easy if they would disperse into China instead of wait for North Korea (Province) to be fixed up. Where would their loyalties be if they suddenly knew that at least their next generation, growing up in China among Chinese peers, looking the same, could be no different than the Chinese? They could inherit and become part of a nuclear-armed superpower that sends shivers down the spine of North Korea's arch nemesis, the United States. They would no longer be regarded as jesters when they talk. This could never be achieved if Kim were in power, if a different (more reasonable) leader presided over North Korea, or if the Koreas united. This dream of North Koreans to be powerful could only come true if they called themselves Chinese. Whether it would work this way or if NK would end up a headache with terrorists and succession groups to be dealt with, I do not know. I leave that decision, once again, in the capable hands of the CCP.

Lastly, I didn't know that NE Indians looked like East Asians. Duly noted. I knew the Bhutanese did but I didn't know that NE Indians did as well. In that case, I would support taking that area, people and all, under the PRC. It would be cruel to force them into such a "situation" as India (regardless of discrimination LOL) when looking at their faces, you see they clearly do no belong there. In 1962, China was broke as a joke, and in no condition to take up more impoverished citizens, as the general said. Today, I don't think that still stands true but Zhongnanhai knows better than I.

Figaro · Sep 18, 2017

I think in the event of a Second Korean War, China should occupy the northern half of North Korea while letting the US & SK deal with the southern portion. This would stem the flow of refugees into China's northeastern provinces and create an artificial buffer against the United States. The PLA would easily steam roll KPA forces, particularly if the bulk of their army is diverted to fight along the DMZ, so the Chinese should have little difficulty in securing their objectives. Also, China would have access to the trillions of dollars of mineral reserves in the northern portions of North Korea, another huge incentive.

AndrewS said:
There are 25million people in North Korea.

Most of them have been brainwashed into thinking the Kims are gods.
And you've got a Juche mentality which is xenophobic to the extreme from a racial purity perspective, even to China and SK.

That is not a good basis for a population which can be easily assimilated by China. So I think it best to let the South Koreans deal with most of that headache.

China would end up doing a lot of the rebuilding in North Korea anyway.

The irony is that the Koreans learned this "racial purity" ideology from their Japanese occupiers during the early 20th century. When so much of the Juche ideology is based on hatred of Japanese values, it is rather surprising that their racial policy emulates that of Imperial Japan. And it isn't only North Korea. South Korea is also notoriously xenophobic and highly protective of their "racial identity"; mixed raced people aren't even allowed to serve in the military and are considered outcasts in their society. Comparing the Koreas to China is not even close; the latter does not emphasize racial purity and is generally open when it comes to multiracial marriages. Even though Japan has moved on, the Korean peninsula seems hell-bent on this idea of racial identity for whatever reason.

EDIT : So it seems that SK has just recently dropped its ban on mixed race military personnel. Still, this self-consciousness resonates deeply.

AndrewS · Sep 19, 2017

manqiangrexue said:
Ah, true true, there are definitely challenges but are they difficult enough to merit losing land the size of North Korea over? Remember, money saved is money earned and territory not taken (when the opportunity is present) is territory lost. Firstly, the war might be so savage that those loyal to Kim may mostly follow him to the grave, especially if they have the mentality that you describe. Then, it is to be considered that North Koreans are so poor, how would they react if they were suddenly lifted to better living conditions and given the opportunity to rise in life? This could be especially easy if they would disperse into China instead of wait for North Korea (Province) to be fixed up. Where would their loyalties be if they suddenly knew that at least their next generation, growing up in China among Chinese peers, looking the same, could be no different than the Chinese? They could inherit and become part of a nuclear-armed superpower that sends shivers down the spine of North Korea's arch nemesis, the United States. They would no longer be regarded as jesters when they talk. This could never be achieved if Kim were in power, if a different (more reasonable) leader presided over North Korea, or if the Koreas united. This dream of North Koreans to be powerful could only come true if they called themselves Chinese. Whether it would work this way or if NK would end up a headache with terrorists and succession groups to be dealt with, I do not know. I leave that decision, once again, in the capable hands of the CCP.

Lastly, I didn't know that NE Indians looked like East Asians. Duly noted. I knew the Bhutanese did but I didn't know that NE Indians did as well. In that case, I would support taking that area, people and all, under the PRC. It would be cruel to force them into such a "situation" as India (regardless of discrimination LOL) when looking at their faces, you see they clearly do no belong there. In 1962, China was broke as a joke, and in no condition to take up more impoverished citizens, as the general said. Today, I don't think that still stands true but Zhongnanhai knows better than I.

I don't think there will be many in the North Korean elite who will follow Kim and certain death, if China made it clear that they would support a coup or would provide a comfortable exile to those who wanted it. That offer of a comfortable exile does also apply to the Kims, as long as they leave without causing trouble.

I really don't see NK really assimilating into China, not when South Korea is just next door.

As for North East India, what would Beijing do if the people publicly say they want to join China? That is a difficult one, as it could really poison relations with India, which is not in China's interests.

AndrewS · Sep 19, 2017

Figaro said:
I think in the event of a Second Korean War, China should occupy the northern half of North Korea while letting the US & SK deal with the southern portion. This would stem the flow of refugees into China's northeastern provinces and create an artificial buffer against the United States. The PLA would easily steam roll KPA forces, particularly if the bulk of their army is diverted to fight along the DMZ, so the Chinese should have little difficulty in securing their objectives. Also, China would have access to the trillions of dollars of mineral reserves in the northern portions of North Korea, another huge incentive.

The irony is that the Koreans learned this "racial purity" ideology from their Japanese occupiers during the early 20th century. When so much of the Juche ideology is based on hatred of Japanese values, it is rather surprising that their racial policy emulates that of Imperial Japan. And it isn't only North Korea. South Korea is also notoriously xenophobic and highly protective of their "racial identity"; mixed raced people aren't even allowed to serve in the military and are considered outcasts in their society. Comparing the Koreas to China is not even close; the latter does not emphasize racial purity and is generally open when it comes to multiracial marriages. Even though Japan has moved on, the Korean peninsula seems hell-bent on this idea of racial identity for whatever reason.

EDIT : So it seems that SK has just recently dropped its ban on mixed race military personnel. Still, this self-consciousness resonates deeply.

I disagree on annexing North Korea, as a buffer zone is better. But Chinese troops will only leave once the last US soldier leaves the Korean peninsula .

Yes, on race and Koreans, that sounds about right.

I think the young in SK are fine with being a multi ethnic county, but for the older generation, how do you change ingrained beliefs built up over a lifetime on Korean racial superiority?

The bbc ran a global survey on race and identity last year. South Korea came out as a huge outlier in terms of their views on blood and nationality.

On China, remember it has been a empire/kingdom/republic with multiple races, religions and languages for millennia.

So race isn't that big an issue

manqiangrexue · Sep 19, 2017

AndrewS said:
I don't think there will be many in the North Korean elite who will follow Kim and certain death, if China made it clear that they would support a coup or would provide a comfortable exile to those who wanted it. That offer of a comfortable exile does also apply to the Kims, as long as they leave without causing trouble.

I really don't see NK really assimilating into China, not when South Korea is just next door.

As for North East India, what would Beijing do if the people publicly say they want to join China? That is a difficult one, as it could really poison relations with India, which is not in China's interests.

Well, you know, maybe the NK wanna do it your way, maybe they wanna do it mine. I dunno. I don't think they wanted to join SK because they've been specifically trained to hate it since their grandfather's generation and also if they did join, they would be falling into the clutches of the USA, their mortal enemy. To be absorbed into SK and thus entered into an alliance with the US represents total defeat of everything they and their ancestors fought for (as well as total victory for their sworn enemies) and that is another strong reason that I believe that NK might willingly ask for annexation into China rather than reunite. Even if just as an FU gesture to SK/US, that would be the only way that a North Korean action could (help) defeat the SK/US cause at the final moment, as it would truly feel like total failure for SK/US if NK joined China. In addition, I don't think that choice is necessarily theirs to make, as China would and should not allow Korean reunification under the South to happen due to obvious security concerns. If they have an inkling of ambition, a grain of desire for power, they would join China.

Poison relations with India? LOL That's like saying you don't wanna make a steaming turd taste worse LOL I think it's obvious that India sees China as its eternal rival, although China sees them as unworthy of any such considerations. That's why some Chinese believe it's possible to have good relations with India while everyone in India hates China with a jealous passion. If NE India openly called for annexation into the PRC, there would be many factors to be considered but a brotherly relationship with India is not one. If the people running NE India were smart, they would ask the PRC in secret first how and when they should proceed before making any such declarations.

delft · Sep 19, 2017

NK wants reunification with SK. The precondition is that SK ceases to be a satellite of US, a position it has had since US installed the barbarous dictator Singman Rhee. Until 2015 the US president was Commander-in-Chief of the SK armed forces. After the departure of US forces reunification might take half a century but they will be on the road. The first development would be building roads, railways, etc. between SK and Russia and China. Russia discussed these matters with the delegations of NK and SK at the recent economic conference in Vladivostock.
This would remove all danger of war between US and NK but such economic cooperation of Russia, China and both parts of Korea is of course anathema to US.

China's strategy in Korean peninsula

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