China's strategy in Korean peninsula

dingyibvs

Senior Member
I think you vastly underestimate the amount of resources that would be needed to rebuild NK after a military toppling of the Kim regime, and of the level of humanitarian disaster that would be unleashed by such an act.

Most importantly, you have not outlined how China stands to benefit from a regime change, compared to maintaining status quo. Kim is only a threat in western media propaganda, there is no realistic scenario where NK can pose a threat to China.

On the other hand, a unified Korea under the influence of the USA would be a devastating blow against Chinese security.

The Korean peninsula is a core interest to China, cost is not very relevant here. How much did it cost China to intervene in the Korean War? It'll cost China far less now, it can potentially even make a buck exporting the excess industrial capacity and expertise, though I'll admit that at least directly it'll probably require some soft loans that'll end up lose money. With that said, those industries are money pits right now, they're already losing money and requiring government handouts, so why not put them to use advancing China's strategic interests?

AndrewS wrote a pretty nice summary of how the post-war situation can benefit China, so I won't repeat the points here.

A unified Korea would be under the influence of China. Who do you think has the will and capability to help SK rebuild? An increasingly isolationist U.S. who's just begun to recover from almost a decade long financial crisis and has a hollowed out industrial sector, or China who sees stability and friendliness on the Korean peninsula as a core interest, has $3 trillion reserves, and the greatest industrial capacity that the world has ever seen?
 

delft

Brigadier
The Korean right and the Korean left both juggle between China and the US in their own ways, but the point is sustained US influence in SK is not the foregone conclusion if NK is either neutralized as a security threat or ceases to exist. SK is being pulled into China's gravity over time. China is already far more influential in SK today than it was even a decade ago. The US maintains its influence in SK due to a mix of legacy and security ties. Remove the necessity of the security ties, which is almost entirely defined around NK, and you get a very different picture.
There is no threat against the Netherlands and there are very few US military here. But after a former prime minister said that as a lieutenant halve a century earlier he had been employed in guarding US nuclear weapons at Volkel airbase their presence couldn't be ignored and a large majority of the Dutch parliament demanded their removal. Even so the government said it couldn't been done and that was the end of the matter. This shows how far the power goes of US over their satellites.
 

keldon

New Member
Registered Member
The UK told the US to bugger off a couple of years ago when it wanted the UK to do more in Syria.

Can Downing street expect American tanks rumbling to it's doorstep?

The French and Germans regularly tell the American's they are not interested... can they expect similar?

Your statement is patently false.

For the Germans: The Bundeswehr is not in a shape for any heavy lifting or even slight more extensive deployment. So, it's not an issue of not interested, but more not capable.

Anyway the US is using german infrastructure and logistics, that seems decent enough for them and no reason to force a regime change, especially when our Mutti Merkel is basically a Yes-women.

Oh, and to add to the US nuke in netherland story posted by delft one post above, the same is also true with Germany. the left wing of the Bundestag inquired about how many nukes were left on german territory and basically got told to shut it.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is no threat against the Netherlands and there are very few US military here. But after a former prime minister said that as a lieutenant halve a century earlier he had been employed in guarding US nuclear weapons at Volkel airbase their presence couldn't be ignored and a large majority of the Dutch parliament demanded their removal. Even so the government said it couldn't been done and that was the end of the matter. This shows how far the power goes of US over their satellites.
The Korean peninsula is a core interest to China, cost is not very relevant here. How much did it cost China to intervene in the Korean War? It'll cost China far less now, it can potentially even make a buck exporting the excess industrial capacity and expertise, though I'll admit that at least directly it'll probably require some soft loans that'll end up lose money. With that said, those industries are money pits right now, they're already losing money and requiring government handouts, so why not put them to use advancing China's strategic interests?

AndrewS wrote a pretty nice summary of how the post-war situation can benefit China, so I won't repeat the points here.

A unified Korea would be under the influence of China. Who do you think has the will and capability to help SK rebuild? An increasingly isolationist U.S. who's just begun to recover from almost a decade long financial crisis and has a hollowed out industrial sector, or China who sees stability and friendliness on the Korean peninsula as a core interest, has $3 trillion reserves, and the greatest industrial capacity that the world has ever seen?

Just to add, the reconstruction of North Korea will almost certainly be very profitable for the companies involved.

North Korea is so far behind, with rock bottom costs for wages and land, but shares borders with a far richer China and South Korea which is only a few hours drive away. So almost any investment will generate very high economic returns.

I can definitely see SK and Chinese companies setting up a lot of factories there.

As for US nation building, past history over the last 40 years would suggest that the US has a short attention span and will be absent-minded during the rebuild
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
It'll be profitable for the construction companies, but the banks that finance them (likely mostly the Big 4 Chinese) will lose money making it an overall money-losing endeavor. With that said, I believe the indirect benefits from a stable, prosperous NK including trade, real estate, etc. would make the whole endeavor profitable. This isn't much different from typical infrastructure projects, where the projects themselves lose money but the indirect benefits overall help a nation grow.
 

Inst

Captain
How do you interpret the odds North Korea will either test their H-bomb or a ballistic missile by Monday? At the present rate, this looks like total capitulation by the Chinese. Mike Pence is arriving tomorrow in Seoul, so if Fatty Kim tests his weapons then, the US VP will be effectively a hostage there against American attacks. He'll have to either evac, looking like an embarrassing disgrace, or he'll have to spend several hours attending to business under the threat of North Korean artillery bombardment.

The Chinese have made significant efforts to rein in KJU, and this is more or less all over the media. If KJU goes ahead anyways, the Chinese can claim they made more than a sufficient effort to stop KJU and this recapitulates their argument that they don't control North Korea.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
As I see it:

There was a proposed nuclear deal back in late Clinton term, between North Korea and the United States.
North Koreans were rather willing to, since w/o Soviet Union, their prospectives were grim: Iraq has shown, just what true superpower can do if left unchecked.
But after rather shameful end of this term, it crumbled: Bush administration decided to walk away entirely, returning to kind of Cold War mindset "there is one Korea to talk with. Not yours."

Partially it was "new president" thing, partially based on assumption what North will just fall(Eastern block collapse wasn't that far in memory back then).
In any case, massive hunger was still recent memory, NK could actually be seen as crumbling, why talk&spend money on something, what you can just push down further?
This point probably was significantly influenced by South Korean intel&political community.

Thus we come to "axis of evil" policy. North was seen as something which will croumble by itself, even w/o any investement. This policy was half-assed for a long time, but stance toughened with time.

Problem is, North Korea actually survived.
And nuclear program was maintained by King Jong-il, as a way to force americans back to the table.
Contest of thickheads wasn't won by anyone in time, and NK just got Nuke.
Then came notorious detoriation of relationship between Koreas, which never was anything better than awful, but 2000s saw stream of economic cooperation. at least. Old Southern policies of "no backdoor for northern elites" were restated.
Here comes yong King Jong-Un, who(as i see it) decided in this situation to just go all in:
best way to get what they wish for(actual deal) isn't nuclear development, in threat of which few actually believed, but fact of stable and able nuclear triad, Carribean style: force your opponent to the table, whenever he wants it or not.

Backside of such plan - it's as provocative as possible, and provocative against opponent who's very capable of bringing Korea down. Plus, well, it's hard to implement, and is inherently dangerous to others(State which can't create truly stable and survivable command link is bound to create backup options. Basically it means to delegate launch permission to lower command levels under certain conditions).
agreed. And I add, in any confrontation, provocation and escalation are done by both sides. Once again, as I said in another post, egg and chicken, both sides are guilty of the situation.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
An all out war between the North and South and a forcible reunification is still far away if it ever happens which I doubt. Most likely situation in the foreseeable future (10, 20 or 30 years) is status quo. A permanent (or semi-permanent > 50 years) two-states situation is not unrealistic. If Kim and his comrades want NK to survive, the (semi-)permanent split is the only option to NK and that requires NK to do changes in similar way as China, Vietnam and Cuba.

However, that said, I am interested in entertaining the hypothesis of a forcible reunification scenario. Here are points that I suggest China to hold:
  1. Cost of rebuilding must be borne by the future unified government. China will not pay a single cent except favorable loans even the rate can be down to zero. Considering inflation, zero interest is already kind of gift. This is to tell the current NK and SK that you pay for your own choice, I don't foot that bill of your day dream.
  2. Chinese army should be stationed in NK until US departure of the peninsular. PVA departed in the 1950s after the Korean war was due to her poor economy condition and NK has USSR as a leverage/alternative. Not this time.
  3. If China send troops to the peninsular this time, there won't be a place for Kim, again not like last time. He can choose to fight the south to his death, or he can choose to step down when he still have a chance to live. Why harsh to Kim? Because the three Kims have been disobedience/troublesome/ingratitude to PVA's sacrifice.
  4. China shall make herself clear to SK that 38 parrelle line is definite line to be respected untill US departure.
 
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Orthan

Senior Member
An all out war between the North and South and a forcible reunification is still far away if it ever happens which I doubt. Most likely situation in the foreseeable future (10, 20 or 30 years) is status quo.

Dont look so much to the future. There´s the real possibility that the PRC has a big crisis in the next few years due to the never ending debt mountain. And then there could be a possibility that china cant help NK any longer and then there could be a korean reunification.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
And then there could be a possibility that china cant help NK any longer and then there could be a korean reunification.
And even if - Seoul will suddenly teleport away from DMZ to Alabama, North will suddenly willingly exchange nuclear warheads for WWW pinguin protection, or whole North Korean military will pass into nothingness?
 
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