China's strategy in Korean peninsula

taxiya

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Credit to Oedosoldier, notice the wording in the
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,“南朝鲜” which mean SOUTH North Korea(朝鲜) instead of North Korea(朝鲜). This might imply Chinese support in a military context.
There is nothing implied in the article because:
  1. the red text "North" is not part of the Chinese texts. 南朝鲜 is just Sough(南) Korea(朝鲜) in Chinese.
  2. the paragraph is the words of Kim, when he said "If 南朝鲜..." he was referring to South Korea only, nothing else.
However, although there is no implying from this article, there is absolutely no doubt that any Chinese involvement on the peninsula has an military part according to the "mutual assist treaty" between NK and China.

Here is the paragraph concerned:
金正恩表示,当前朝鲜半岛形势开始向好发展。我们主动采取了措施缓和紧张局势,提出了和平对话建议。按照金日成主席和金正日总书记的遗训,致力于实现半岛无核化,是我们始终不变的立场。我们决心将北南关系转变为和解合作的关系,举行北南首脑会晤,愿意同美方对话,举行朝美首脑会晤。如果南朝鲜和美国以善意回应我们的努力,营造和平稳定的氛围,为实现和平采取阶段性、同步的措施,半岛无核化问题是能够得到解决的。在这一进程中,我们希望同中方加强战略沟通,共同维护协商对话势头和半岛和平稳定。
Here is my translation, see the highlights.
Kim Jong-in stated, the current situation on the peninsula is improving. We have initiated measures to deescalate the tense situation, proposed peaceful dialog. Denuclearization is always our unchanged position according to the decree (?, it is a typical Chinese expression of instruction, decision from ex leaders) of late leaders, Kim il-sung and Kim Jong-Il. We are determined to turn the North-South relationship towards reconciliation and cooperation, hold North-South summit, willing to hold talk with USA and hold summit with US leadership. If South Korea and USA respond to our good will, build peaceful environment, take stepped and simultaneous (with us) measures, the matter of denuclearization can be resolved. In this process, we wish to enhance strategic consultation with Chinese side, and jointly keep up the momentum of dialog, maintain peace and stability of the peninsula.
 

taxiya

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Registered Member
Few highlights of the Xinhua report:
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  1. Denuclearization
  2. NK may go (in the future) Chinese kind of reform, as Kim praised (in a tone of approval) China's practice without reinterate the "Military First" thought.
  3. Both Xi and Ki talked about "bilateral leader visit". We may see Xi visit NK quite soon.
 

taxiya

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Registered Member
That is a good analogy, North Korea as China's Israel, it could potentially become reality. Since NK announced its desire to denuclearize under conditions of peace and a stable environment, I think there could be an arrangement where NK is under China's nuclear umbrella some time in the future. It is very unlikely NK would render itself totally vulnerable without nuclear second strike capability.

This is just a personal view but I think all along it was NK's grand strategy to negotiate a more equal international political footing with China before reform can happen. NK knows its only real backer is China, no other nation can possibly provide or willing to provide the road out but China has its own geopolitical views. China always viewed Korea as a vassal state, and NK is a rowdy vassal state, a trouble maker that needs to be tamed. NK knows how China views them, its nothing new, its very historical. This is clever political manoeuvring on NK's part where it became the focal point for China and USA, where it could play the two nations against each other. In the process of de-escalation they can extract benefits and boosts its international standing even if its a negative image, what matters are the interests at stake. Each side wants to use NK against the other, thus the two major powers are more willing to give major concessions to NK.

Ultimately NK wants to be on a more equal international standing with China. NK knows it cannot be a true equal but in the short span after a major international event, NK's importance would be highlighted, making China more willing to give major concessions to NK. China fears its international standing would be degraded if NK met with Trump first, thus China proactively sought out NK's visit. Especially concessions concering future trade and development. NK would likely take this opening to prepare for reforms and opening to China in addition to security guarantees much like ones the US provides to Israel before denuclearization could begin.

Had NK not played this big political stunt, NK's opening would render it just a minor vassal of China. The economic and political costs of nuclear program and ICBMs are the costs for negotiating better terms from China.

Effectively that arrangement is already here since China acquired her own nukes (1970s) according to the treaty signed in 1956. That treaty states China will assist NK's defense by all means. When Chinese troops were nuked on the peninsula in the event of Chinese intervention, there is no reason to believe that China will not return in kind with nukes, effectively extending her nuclear umbrella to the NK. The treaty did not specifically say boots on the ground and nuclear protection is a) China did not have nukes in 1956, b) China never overtly threat anyone with nukes.

I don't see China fears NK Trump meet first, after all it was China constantly calling NK and USA to directly talk to each other, why do it if China fears its outcome?
 

taxiya

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Registered Member
Here is the link to the report of the summit between Xi and Kim. There are full texts transcription below the video.
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Besides what I have posted before in other posts, here are extra points:
  1. From the look of facial expressions of both Xi and Kim, the meeting was pleasant.
  2. Xi and Kim agreed more regular bilateral high level visits. According to
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    , Xi accepted the invitation to visit NK.
  3. Xi asked Kim to visit China more often.
  4. Comrade is used to address each other.
  5. Xi indirectly acknowledged the disagreement by saying
我们双方多次表示,要把中朝传统友谊不断传承下去,发展得更好。这是双方基于历史和现实,立足于国际地区格局和中朝关系大局,作出的战略选择,也是唯一正确选择,不应也不会因一时一事而变化。
The Sino-(N)Korea friendship should be continued, this is a strategic choice based on history and reality, it is the ONLY RIGHT choice, it should not and would not change because of one thing of one time.
The "one thing of one time" is the nuclear issue. The "should not and would not change" is referring to the disagreement.
This meeting is enough to dismiss all the noises of China and NK dumping each other, China should/would press NK on behalf of US, China should/would favor SK led unification.

A new page has been turned and will not be turned back by China or NK. The road to the eventual settlement of the peninsula may still be decades away, but Kim has made commitment personally. That commitment is appreciated by China and means very heavy between NK and China, part of the culture shared by the two.

Now, the evil part of me is wondering if Trump will have a change of mind as he usually do, that is for some yet unseen reason cancel the proposed summit, or put new sanctions for not-yet-happened-but-sure-to-happen NK "provocation".:rolleyes:
 
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Flying_Fortress

New Member
Registered Member
I cannot wait for trump to further sanction China for it's blatant role in the development of the NK nuclear program. This entire mess is China's fault, if it weren't for China's interventionist policies, NK would be re-united with SK, and it would be just as developed.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Not to worry, he will not.
or I can take this stance "前途是光明的,道路是曲折的", "the road head is both bright and bumpy". Trump may turn back and not being the one to make his name in history, but who cares, some American leader in the future will walk that way because it is the only bright road.:)
 

broadsword

Brigadier
or I can take this stance "前途是光明的,道路是曲折的", "the road head is both bright and bumpy". Trump may turn back and not being the one to make his name in history, but who cares, some American leader in the future will walk that way because it is the only bright road.:)

It will not be difficult for him to decide on the right side of history, one worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize, and one that has eluded past presidents. It will cement his legacy of one great virtue that will mitigate the one created by his scandals.
 

supercat

Major
I cannot wait for trump to further sanction China for it's blatant role in the development of the NK nuclear program. This entire mess is China's fault, if it weren't for China's interventionist policies, NK would be re-united with SK, and it would be just as developed.

Your evidence of China's BLATANT role in the development of NK's nuclear weapons? BTW, Kim's visit will bolster China's position in future trade negotiations with the Trump administration. China did what she did in the Korean War in self-defense, a direct result of China's previous painful and bloody experience in dealing with foreign imperialists in the past 110 years since 1840. Blaming a cold war legacy on China alone is not fair anyway.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I cannot wait for trump to further sanction China for it's blatant role in the development of the NK nuclear program. This entire mess is China's fault, if it weren't for China's interventionist policies, NK would be re-united with SK, and it would be just as developed.
Everything is the US's fault (probably in the world, but we're just talking about Korea here). There is no country in the history of the planet that is as interventionist (or nosy) as the US. If it wasn't for American greed thinking it can control Asia, the US would go back home, save a ton of money, and China wouldn't have to prop up North Korea to serve as a buffer from the mad regime that is the United States. American troops cannot be allowed to border China. Only after the US leaves, then the Koreas can finally be united peacefully under China's sphere of influence. Unfortunately, ruled by its mad lust for control, the US won't leave on its own and it's up to China to give it incentive to go, as a big brother present to the Koreas. You will see in the coming decades, or as soon as Trump tries something stupid. So you and I both, can't wait to see Trump tank his own economy trying to harm others like an idiot who tries to swing at someone else only to end up breaking his hand on the wall.
 
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