China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Dfangsaur

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think with this visit, North Korea might have shown Xi in person that they are a nuclear capable state with the means to deliver it. Perhaps this means they are ready for economic reform soon. I think North Korea can become the Israel for China in this case.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
On the surface Trump seems like a rash hot headed person with little regard for conventions (which could also be true), underneath that he is rational. He is a businessmen, businessmen think in interest based framework and generally rational and likely more rational than many politicians. They also have a tendency of relying heavily on psychology during negations, which will come of as extremely undiplomatic and unrefined from the perspective of traditional diplomacy. His personal behaviour might be questionable but strategies for larger group interest seems rational.

China was with the US on this one, there were extensive talks behind the scenes to avoid misunderstanding and potential war that nobody wants. China saw that NK needed a hard nudge for there to be long lasting development in East Asia.

I don't see how this security would be for anybody other than the top leader of a nation.


I find the "no exploding car"/ "no car bomb allowed" sign to be amusing.
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I have to disagree with you on some points. A person’s personal life often reflects his public persona. A rational man wouldn’t have gotten married 3 different times to 3 different women that quite obviously he has very very little in common with. A rational man wouldn’t have cheated on all his wives on multiple occasions with multitudes of all these different women. Women from his past that any rational man will surely know will come back and haunt him later.

I’m not even talking about the issue of morality or conscience but rather this constant behavior proves the many decisions he has made are not rational.

A rational man who also is already a billionaire but never a politician nor shown any interest in politics, economics, military, domestic issues or social issues his entire long life will not suddenly wake up at the ripe age of almost 70 and decides to run for the United States presidency. His constant back and forth change in partisanship also reflects his severe lack of interest in politics and well being of the country all his life.

There can be only three conclusions.

1.he truly is irrational

2.he is semi rational all his life but his interest in suddenly wanting to become POTUS has nothing to do with making the country great again but rather for some other ulterior motives and agendas.

3.he was irrational but suddenly out of the blue one day a couple years ago, he got an ‘eureka’ moment, or come to Jesus moment as they say and decides to repent, replace, reenergized, miraculously became ‘rational’, and genuinely wants to make America great again.

I like to believe it’s no. 3 but unfortunately it is more likely either 1 or 2.
 

james smith esq

Senior Member
Registered Member
I have to disagree with you on some points. A person’s personal life often reflects his public persona. […]

The true power of narcissists, sociopaths, and antisocial personalities is the willingness of gullible others to believe their lies and misrepresentations, and of self serving sycophants to enable them .
 

supercat

Major
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I hope Kim's words are sincere:

North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency published Kim's personal letter to Xi dated on Wednesday, where he expressed gratitude to the Chinese leadership for showing what he described as "heartwarming hospitality" during his "productive" visit.

Kim said that the first meeting between the leaders of the two countries will provide a "groundbreaking milestone" in developing mutual relations to "meet the demands of the new era." Kim also said that he's satisfied that the leaders confirmed their "unified opinions" on mutual issues.

In a speech at a banquet in China, Kim described the traditional allies as inseparable "neighboring brothers" with a relationship molded by a "scared mutual fight" to achieve socialist ideals, according to KCNA.

"It's most proper that my first overseas trip would be the capital of the People's Republic of China as it's also one of my noble duties to value the North Korea-China friendship as I do my own life and extend it (for another generation)," said Kim, according to the agency.

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kwaigonegin

Colonel
The true power of narcissists, sociopaths, and antisocial personalities is the willingness of gullible others to believe their lies and misrepresentations, and of self serving sycophants to enable them .
Correct and by extension all these personalities you just described are irrational from a standpoint of normalcy and logic.
Irrational folks can be highly successful too but their irrationalities will come with a huge price to pay, often at the expense of others.
 

Dfangsaur

Junior Member
Registered Member
Credit to Oedosoldier, notice the wording in the
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,“南朝鲜” which mean SOUTH North Korea(朝鲜) instead of North Korea(朝鲜). This might imply Chinese support in a military context.
 
now I read
Opinion: Xi-Kim historic meeting to accelerate path to peace
Updated 2018-03-28 13:06 GMT+8
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Kim Jong Un, the young leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), wrapped up his three-day visit to Beijing on Wednesday. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the trip, Kim's first since taking the DPRK reins in 2011, was of great significance.

Kim's arrival in China came as a surprise to some observers, but Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, said it met with expectations given the recent uptick in dialogue from the DPRK.

In his New Year speech in January, Kim indicated that he would take action to seek the easing of the spiraling tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Then during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, Pyongyang staged "smile diplomacy," effectively easing tensions with Seoul and even raising the prospect of reunification.

Kim's decision to meet Xi at the latter's invitation ahead of talks with US President Donald Trump slated for May indicates that the DPRK leader regards China as a close friend, and needs its neighbor's input ahead of negotiations with Trump.

Such high-level cooperation will help avoid any "unhappy surprises" in the Kim-Trump engagement and make sure that discussions will be "built on peace and stability," said Victor Gao, vice president of the Center of China and Globalization. He suggested the Beijing trip would offer Pyongyang a sense that it will not be alone in facing Washington.

"Both the two countries showed strategic insight, as the overseas debut by Kim will help enhance the discourse power of both Beijing and Pyongyang in Northeast Asia," Gao noted.

The diplomatic breakthrough also demonstrates Xi's ability to make progress on a sophisticated international situation complicated by the White House's trade war threat. With a more intimate Beijing-Pyongyang relationship and stronger strategic communication, a geopolitical change may take place in the post-Cold War Northeast Asian region.

During the meeting, Kim vowed to shift focus on domestic economic growth. It's anticipated that culture and people-to-people exchanges will become increasingly frequent in the future, precipitating more mutual trust between the two peoples.

"Now we are moving in a positive direction," said Gao. "China is happy to see what it has proposed is becoming a reality on the ground." The meeting was a milestone in China's perennial effort to achieve the ultimate goal of lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

Regarding the decades-long conundrum on the Korean Peninsula, all parties involved should participate in the endeavor to make sure no one second-guesses or surprises each other. Trust must not only exist between China and the DPRK, but also among all the regional stakeholders – who hold the key to the destiny of the Korean Peninsula.
 

SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think with this visit, North Korea might have shown Xi in person that they are a nuclear capable state with the means to deliver it. Perhaps this means they are ready for economic reform soon. I think North Korea can become the Israel for China in this case.
That is a good analogy, North Korea as China's Israel, it could potentially become reality. Since NK announced its desire to denuclearize under conditions of peace and a stable environment, I think there could be an arrangement where NK is under China's nuclear umbrella some time in the future. It is very unlikely NK would render itself totally vulnerable without nuclear second strike capability.

This is just a personal view but I think all along it was NK's grand strategy to negotiate a more equal international political footing with China before reform can happen. NK knows its only real backer is China, no other nation can possibly provide or willing to provide the road out but China has its own geopolitical views. China always viewed Korea as a vassal state, and NK is a rowdy vassal state, a trouble maker that needs to be tamed. NK knows how China views them, its nothing new, its very historical. This is clever political manoeuvring on NK's part where it became the focal point for China and USA, where it could play the two nations against each other. In the process of de-escalation they can extract benefits and boosts its international standing even if its a negative image, what matters are the interests at stake. Each side wants to use NK against the other, thus the two major powers are more willing to give major concessions to NK.

Ultimately NK wants to be on a more equal international standing with China. NK knows it cannot be a true equal but in the short span after a major international event, NK's importance would be highlighted, making China more willing to give major concessions to NK. China fears its international standing would be degraded if NK met with Trump first, thus China proactively sought out NK's visit. Especially concessions concering future trade and development. NK would likely take this opening to prepare for reforms and opening to China in addition to security guarantees much like ones the US provides to Israel before denuclearization could begin.

Had NK not played this big political stunt, NK's opening would render it just a minor vassal of China. The economic and political costs of nuclear program and ICBMs are the costs for negotiating better terms from China.
 
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