China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
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There is a very high likelihood Kim Jong Un visited China, I think it is certain. This would signal the first visit by Kim Jong Un to a foreign country and with a foreign leader. First visiting Xi Jinping in China has significant meaning, then again they have a policy of the top leader only travelling by train so not many other options. The North Korean train specifically designed for the top leader was spotted travelling through Beijing from Dandong. Reportedly the train-station erected a temporary barrier a week prior to block visibility. It was also reported the Kim Jong Un visited Zhongguancun the tech hub of Beijing.
The Chinese side seems to be welcoming to the warming of relations (the sanctions were successful imo), apparent from the level of security precautions China prepared, which they only provide for the the highest foreign dignitaries (similar to what they prepare for American presidents).
I think North Korea is ready to take a softer stance and open up more, but far from a complete opening. Kim Jong Un seems to be wanting more economic and technology cooperation with China and South Korea. In previous interviews with the Kim family's Japanese chef, he stated Kim Jong Un from a young age wanted to reform NK similar to China's economic reform. Don't get your hopes up for drastic change anytime soon though, these kind of social changes take a while and security disturbances could set the situation back. North Korea wanted to reform and open up like China did in 1979 back during the 90s but that plan was set back in part due to the attempted/rumoured military coup and famine that occurred during the 90s. For many years now China setup infrastructure and plans for a special economic zone in Dandong, built that famous bridge to nowhere in hopes that it would attract NK to the possibility of greater openness. NK also had plans for special economic zones right across the river from Dandong and in Rason bordering China and Russia, though they remain underutilised.
The situation on the peninsula had been large deescalated, war is a low possibly now. The sanctions pushed by America and cooperation from China seemed successful in forcing NK's hand. If NK is serious about economic reform then I think they can perform an economic miracle similar to SK or Taiwan.
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On the surface Trump seems like a rash hot headed person with little regard for conventions (which could also be true), underneath that he is rational. He is a businessmen, businessmen think in interest based framework and generally rational and likely more rational than many politicians. They also have a tendency of relying heavily on psychology during negations, which will come of as extremely undiplomatic and unrefined from the perspective of traditional diplomacy. His personal behaviour might be questionable but strategies for larger group interest seems rational.
China was with the US on this one, there were extensive talks behind the scenes to avoid misunderstanding and potential war that nobody wants. China saw that NK needed a hard nudge for there to be long lasting development in East Asia.
I don't see how this security would be for anybody other than the top leader of a nation.
I find the "no exploding car"/ "no car bomb allowed" sign to be amusing.
China was with the US on this one, there were extensive talks behind the scenes to avoid misunderstanding and potential war that nobody wants. China saw that NK needed a hard nudge for there to be long lasting development in East Asia.
I don't see how this security would be for anybody other than the top leader of a nation.
I find the "no exploding car"/ "no car bomb allowed" sign to be amusing.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I agree; that is Kim JongUn coming to visit China, probably to check in with Xi to make sure that the strategy going forth is agreeable before be meets with Trump. Also, he does not want to say that he met with the US president before he met with China's; that doesn't look good for him.
That said, I do not see how you arrived at the conclusion that Trump is a rational person; maybe he was at some point when he was young, but this businessman was not self-made, went bankrupt multiple times, does not believe in global warming, has a fun time being proven wrong on live TV (multiple times), and wants all sharks to be dead. That's just the most stand-out things I could come up with on the spot; I'm sure Google can blow this post up if I used it. If Trump was a rational man, he is an angry geriatric shell of his former self.
When I say rational I mean his negotiation framework. He sets a goal and uses a rational framework to achieve it and employs an "irrational" or unpredictable persona as a leverage. What I am getting at is that people shouldn't fear that much about Trump going crazy and purposely pushing America in a war with North Korea as stated by many left leaning voices in the USA, it is all an act which he had used in many of his business ventures. Whether it is ethical or not is up for debate. People believing in his "craziness" is what gives Trump leverage.
Him being rational is not referring to his specific policies. I do think he has certain biases that do not reflect the opinions of many scientists and technology experts.
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Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un hold talks in Beijing
Source: Xinhua| 2018-03-28 07:43:07|Editor: Xiang Bo
At the invitation of Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese president, Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), paid an unofficial visit to China from March 25 to 28. During the visit, Xi held talks with Kim at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi held a welcoming ceremony for Kim before their talks. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)
BEIJING, March 28 (Xinhua) -- At the invitation of Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese president, Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), paid an unofficial visit to China from Sunday to Wednesday.
During the visit, Xi held talks with Kim at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan held a welcoming banquet for Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju and watched an art performance together.
Li Keqiang, Chinese premier and member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, and Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan attended related activities, respectively.
During the talks, Xi expressed warm welcome on behalf of the CPC Central Committee to Kim for his first visit to China.
Xi said he appreciated that Kim sent him a congratulatory message after the 19th CPC National Congress on his re-election as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and the assumption of office of chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission (CMC).
Xi was also grateful to Kim for congratulating him again several days ago immediately after he was re-elected China's president and chairman of the CMC of the country.
Xi said Kim's current visit to China, which came at a special time and was of great significance, fully embodied the great importance that Comrade Chairman and the WPK Central Committee have attached to the relations between the two countries and the two parties.
"We speak highly of this visit," Xi told Kim.
Full article:
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It is official, Kim Jong Un met with Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Source: Xinhua| 2018-03-28 07:43:07|Editor: Xiang Bo
At the invitation of Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese president, Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), paid an unofficial visit to China from March 25 to 28. During the visit, Xi held talks with Kim at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi held a welcoming ceremony for Kim before their talks. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)
BEIJING, March 28 (Xinhua) -- At the invitation of Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Chinese president, Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), paid an unofficial visit to China from Sunday to Wednesday.
During the visit, Xi held talks with Kim at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan held a welcoming banquet for Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju and watched an art performance together.
Li Keqiang, Chinese premier and member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, and Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan attended related activities, respectively.
During the talks, Xi expressed warm welcome on behalf of the CPC Central Committee to Kim for his first visit to China.
Xi said he appreciated that Kim sent him a congratulatory message after the 19th CPC National Congress on his re-election as general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and the assumption of office of chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission (CMC).
Xi was also grateful to Kim for congratulating him again several days ago immediately after he was re-elected China's president and chairman of the CMC of the country.
Xi said Kim's current visit to China, which came at a special time and was of great significance, fully embodied the great importance that Comrade Chairman and the WPK Central Committee have attached to the relations between the two countries and the two parties.
"We speak highly of this visit," Xi told Kim.
Full article:
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It is official, Kim Jong Un met with Xi Jinping in Beijing.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Trump also as a huge ego, poor impulse control, lack of knowledge on many key areas in terms of international relations, and it appears, memory.
There have been many many examples of him just shooting off on a complete tangent to his team’s plans, and often even directly contradicting his own officials. Tillerson was a classic example.
Tillerson also servers as another example, which is that Trump is increasingly surrounded by hardliners bordering on full fledged nut job caliber.
It’s not hard to think of a situation where either through deliberate manipulation of those hardliners, and/or Trump just getting bored with the plan/forgot what the plan was, and goes and say or do something, as President of the United States, that has real and serious consequences that could not be undone.
His egotistical and boastful nature means that even if he knew he made a mistake, he tends to double down rather than admit he was wrong (which is actually something I cannot ever remember him seriously admitting).
There have been many many examples of him just shooting off on a complete tangent to his team’s plans, and often even directly contradicting his own officials. Tillerson was a classic example.
Tillerson also servers as another example, which is that Trump is increasingly surrounded by hardliners bordering on full fledged nut job caliber.
It’s not hard to think of a situation where either through deliberate manipulation of those hardliners, and/or Trump just getting bored with the plan/forgot what the plan was, and goes and say or do something, as President of the United States, that has real and serious consequences that could not be undone.
His egotistical and boastful nature means that even if he knew he made a mistake, he tends to double down rather than admit he was wrong (which is actually something I cannot ever remember him seriously admitting).
He’s a charlatan and the fraud and that’s why I voted for him; he’s exactly what “ ‘murica “ deserves!
HAHA guess not