China's strategy in Korean peninsula

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Going against the US directly, you go all out or you stay home. North Korea cannot defeat the US with any kind of assistance unless you count fighting a war for them as assistance. If you supply them with weapons, train them in basic operations 101, they will lose, Chinese weaponry will look like garbage, US will dissect the systems they capture and everyone will know China tried to help North Korea but failed and the US prevailed. This is worse than just watching them get their asses handed to them. If the US is to be defeated, Chinese troops will have to be deployed just like in 1950. If China decides it doesn't wanna butt heads with the US economically, then the best way to preserve control of North Korean territory is to destroy Kim before the US gets there and take over North Korea.

The oil choke may be America's strategy but China and Russia can supply oil to North Korea via their pipelines to keep it barely running. North Korea may want to do something but it has no options other than cursing out Trump and calling him a dotard. Any attack that Kim launches will result in his immediate destruction; it's absolute suicide. If that happens, China will be left with no defensible excuse for helping North Korea and will have no choice but to destroy Kim's regime and take over its territory before the US can.
US will only resort to air campaign and precision strike. It will not risk troop campaign because NK is nuke armed.

I don't see how sending the troop in will help fighting other than occuping NK
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
US will only resort to air campaign and precision strike. It will not risk troop campaign because NK is nuke armed.

I don't see how sending the troop in will help fighting other than occuping NK
Well, if that's the case, the US wants to do a hit n' run on the nuclear facilities, then China may not have to respond at all. As a matter of fact, Kim has been quite disrespectful of Xi's authority and Xi might just say, "I told you so."

But if the US wants to take out the Kim regime and unify the peninsula under South Korea and US military command, then it will have to take control of North Korea with troops. That's the situation that China must prevent by taking it with Chinese troops first.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
US will only resort to air campaign and precision strike. It will not risk troop campaign because NK is nuke armed.

I don't see how sending the troop in will help fighting other than occuping NK
So, if the air campaign against military targets not so important, then what will the US do if the DPRK nuke the US pacific ocean military bases as a reaction for the US air campaign?
Don't forget, from Kim standpoint a limited air campaign, that target/ kill him is equvalent to a full blown , land/air/sea attack by US/ROK/Japan.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
My dad's uncle got massively rich running guns across Hong Kong-China border during the cultural revolution period when China was isolated.

It's trivially easy to get rich overnight with a couple runs of illegal shipping oil to NK state.

You just have to bear the consequences if you were ever caught by the police, but is lucrative because the mark up price can be as high as 800% the market rate depending on timing.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
US will only resort to air campaign and precision strike. It will not risk troop campaign because NK is nuke armed.

I don't see how sending the troop in will help fighting other than occuping NK

even if NK didn't have a nuke ... the US would never use land force against NK directly, too risky and the casualties would be unimaginable
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
even if NK didn't have a nuke ... the US would never use land force against NK directly, too risky and the casualties would be unimaginable
Problem is in the war you don't do what you would like to to ,but you do what you need to do.

No one wants to use nuclear weapons, but they will if there is no other options.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
even if NK didn't have a nuke ... the US would never use land force against NK directly, too risky and the casualties would be unimaginable

Fatty K would have been far more concerned about a possible US decapitation strike against his lardy behind. And to be frank, if the US had a position lock on him, there wouldn’t have been much he or his military could have done to stop it short of him living his every moment deep in some mountain bunker. But even then there would still be a chance that the US could still get him.

Nukes and ICBMs are his insurance policy that that never happens.

He would have been living in near constant fear that a JADAM or other similar US PGM was going to burst through his roof at any moment. That’s huge motivation for him to get an insurance policy to make sure that never happens and he no longer need to scurry and hide like a rat in his own country.

Fear is a double edged sword.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Fatty K would have been far more concerned about a possible US decapitation strike against his lardy behind.
......
Fear is a double edged sword.
there is wisdom in your words.
Everyone try to analyse the payout matrix from the country standpoint, however what matter is how the decision maker(s) see the situation, options , gain and loss.
 
now I read
China welcomes DPRK, ROK to improve ties through 2018 Winter Olympics
Xinhua| 2018-01-02 19:27:51
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China supports the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (
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) and the the Republic of Korea (ROK) to use the 2018 Winter Olympics to make efforts to improve ties, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tuesday.

The ROK will host the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang in February.

It was reported that top leader of the DPRK
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said Monday that Pyongyang was willing to talk with Seoul on its possible participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics to be held in the ROK.

According to the reports, the ROK President Moon Jae-in welcomed the DPRK leader's New Year speech, ordering government officials to rapidly restore inter-Korean talks and draw up follow-up measures to make it possible for the DPRK delegation to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.

"We have noticed the positive information from the leaders of the two countries, and it is a good thing," spokesperson Geng Shuang told a regular press briefing. "China welcomes and supports both countries to take the 2018 Winter Olympics as an opportunity to make effective efforts to improve their relations, relax the situation on the Korean Peninsula and promote the denuclearization of the peninsula."
 
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