China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Anlsvrthng said:

Suggestion: before you make statement check the facts.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Tops semiconductor manufacturers:
1st USA 50%
2nd South Korea 17%
3rd Japan 11%
4th EU 9%
5th Taiwan 6%
6th China 4%
7th everyone else 3%

The US controlled group control 93% of semi industry.


Semiconductor manufacturing equipment:
47% USA
30% Japan
17% Netherlands
6% everyone else.


So, the Chinese tablets using US or SK ICs.
And due to the above, as soon as SK stop to be US colony it will loose its semiconductor industry.

Click to expand...

They ALL relied on China to process those rare earth minerals in order to make those semi conductors and machines. China has a 97% control of rare earth mineral processing industry. And that's just rare earth, don't forget the services as well.

Importance of the semi industry for SK:

Equation said:

They ALL relied on China to process those rare earth minerals in order to make those semi conductors and machines. China has a 97% control of rare earth mineral processing industry. And that's just rare earth, don't forget the services as well.

Click to expand...

Global rare earth market : less than 9 billion $
Global semi market : around 500 billion $ ->17% controlled by SK
Additionaly without matured semi industry it is not possile to make cutting edge military / space hardware.

US has reserves to make, and currently mining rare earth only for military applications, but nothing prevent the US (or russia, japan and so on) to increase the production dramaticaly. It needs only money to invest new mines.

However the semi industry needs accumulated knowledge.

Anlsvrthng said:

Suggestion: before you make statement check the facts.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Tops semiconductor manufacturers:
1st USA 50%
2nd South Korea 17%
3rd Japan 11%
4th EU 9%
5th Taiwan 6%
6th China 4%
7th everyone else 3%

The US controlled group control 93% of semi industry.


Semiconductor manufacturing equipment:
47% USA
30% Japan
17% Netherlands
6% everyone else.


So, the Chinese tablets using US or SK ICs.
And due to the above, as soon as SK stop to be US colony it will loose its semiconductor industry.

Click to expand...

Suggestion: Read English.

1. I said again and again, it will depend on where China's industry is in the FUTURE when we come across the issue of the US being evicted from Korea. Every industry in China is growing fast. We will have to see where China is in the FUTURE, because we are not at the point now where the US is gonna be evicted from SK. So unless you have some data from 2035, you can print out that booklet you linked, and eat it.
2. South Korea's got 17%? Not bad! That's a third the semiconductors with less than a 6th the population of the US. Judging from this, you could buy from the Netherlands or some other 6%, and it would boost their global share at the expense of the US if it got that ugly.
3. Philippines didn't care, did they? They wanted the US out and they got it. If SK wanted the US out so reunification can occur, then it can choose between reunification or getting some tech which, for some reason, comes with foreign troops?
4. There is no evidence to show that the US will withhold semiconducters from SK for an eviction. If it sells them to China, it's number 1 rival, it'll keep working with SK, eviction or no eviction. Last time the US tried to use a tech ban to stifle someone, Intel lost a massive amount of money, fired thousands of skilled workers in the US, and China came out with its own chip in a year or 2, powering the fastest supercomputer in the world today. So if they want to try that again with semiconductors, be my guest. I welcome it. I fear only that they are not foolish enough to make the same mistake twice.

China went from no supercomputers in the top500 to number 1 and and number 2, overall total and number of systems all number 1 in little more than a decade. Let's see what it can do with semiconductors. Unless Trump does something very stupid, I don't think we're within 10 years of Korean reunification yet.

manqiangrexue said:

Suggestion: Read English.

1. I said again and again, it will depend on where China's industry is in the FUTURE when we come across the issue of the US being evicted from Korea. Every industry in China is growing fast. We will have to see where China is in the FUTURE, because we are not at the point now where the US is gonna be evicted from SK. So unless you have some data from 2035, you can print out that booklet you linked, and eat it.
2. South Korea's got 17%? Not bad! That's a third the semiconductors with less than a 6th the population of the US. Judging from this, you could buy from the Netherlands or some other 6%, and it would boost their global share at the expense of the US if it got that ugly.
3. Philippines didn't care, did they? They wanted the US out and they got it. If SK wanted the US out so reunification can occur, then it can choose between reunification or getting some tech which, for some reason, comes with foreign troops?
4. There is no evidence to show that the US will withhold semiconducters from SK for an eviction. If it sells them to China, it's number 1 rival, it'll keep working with SK, eviction or no eviction. Last time the US tried to use a tech ban to stifle someone, Intel lost a massive amount of money, fired thousands of skilled workers in the US, and China came out with its own chip in short order, powering the number 1 supercomputer today. So if they want to try that again with semiconductors, be my guest. I welcome it.

China went from no supercomputers in the top500 to number 1 and and number 2, overall total and number of systems all number 1 in little more than a decade. Let's see what it can do with semiconductors.

Click to expand...

The semi export to China severly restricted.

It is not accident in the list you can see SK/Japan/Taiwan as no2/3/4 semi manufacturere - this industry needs more than an empty building to run.

China can't compete not because it has no money, but because the top level equipment / technology sales are restricted, and without them it is impossible to make viable and competitive semiconducor industry.

the semi industry on its own represents 8% of the SK economy, and on top of it there are the dependent industries, like mobile phones and so on.
So by puting the SK into the same category like say Russia or China the south korean economy will be smaller by 10-15%.

At the moment I can not see how it will change.
To challange the US in the semi industry China needs to work hard and long (decades? ) to get there.

Example:

Anlsvrthng said:

The semi export to China severly restricted.

It is not accident in the list you can see SK/Japan/Taiwan as no2/3/4 semi manufacturere - this industry needs more than an empty building to run.

China can't compete not because it has no money, but because the top level equipment / technology sales are restricted, and without them it is impossible to make viable and competitive semiconducor industry.

the semi industry on its own represents 8% of the SK economy, and on top of it there are the dependent industries, like mobile phones and so on.
So by puting the SK into the same category like say Russia or China the south korean economy will be smaller by 10-15%.

At the moment I can not see how it will change.
To challange the US in the semi industry China needs to work hard and long (decades? ) to get there.

Example:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Supercomputer chip technology is restricted too. Nobody taught China how to make it; the US didn't do tech transfer. You can't make it in an empty building either. Decades for the US. Years for China. That's what we saw in the supercomputer race. When the CCP sets its sights on a targeted technology, it improves fast. That's what I project for the future of semiconducters. If you don't think so, fine; no need to argue about things that haven't happened yet.

Economy smaller by 10-15% is better than country smaller by half. If I were Korean, reunification would be number 1. Besides, US isn't the only supplier, as your source said. Others like the Netherlands own a smaller global share, but that's because the US is willing to sell. If the US cuts off, American global shares drop. China, Korea take their business to Netherlands and Dutch shares skyrocket with Chinese support.

Anlsvrthng said:

Can to US get eviction notice from Seoul ?

They have lot of military personel there, and deep rooted infulence to the economy/ society.

I think they can destroy any SK goverment that doesn't follow the guidelines.


They are as independent like Eastern Europe was in the 60s.

Click to expand...

1. Military presence, yes, stage an attack on SK? I don't think so. China is willing to defend NK, BUT China is also willing to defend her economy interest in SK with military means. China's stake in SK is as high as her security stake in NK. The very reason that Kims got pissed off and defied China was China putting the eggs in the basket in SK in the 1990s, China is surely not going to see those eggs ruined by anyone.

Deep economy influence? Yes there was and still is. But when the trade volume goes down, so is the economy influence. One has less/no influence if one has less/no business. Only money talks in the economy world. And society follows business.

2. They can and they did, some years ago. Can they do it again? Probably, but will be more and more difficult. When time arrives, some politicians in Soul will be daring to depart. When time arrives, Beijing will be able and dare to embrace SK. It is not a question of IF, but when. P.S. I am not saying the time is now, just saying it is inevitable.

3. And the Warsaw pact was dissolved on 1st of July 1991, and EE got their "independent" from then on. Today's SK is not EE countries of 1991, not yet, but surely neither is SK the same as EE countries in the 1960s. SK has a FTA with China and China is SK's nr. 1 trading partner, to begin with. That trading volume (money and economy surviving) means SK gains more to buddy up with China than with anyone else IF somebody in DC want to do a blockade on SK.

Anlsvrthng said:

Not that easy.

exampe, semiconductor : The SK industry depending on the US technology to manufacture the ICs for phones, tablets , memories and so on.
China can't compete on this area, because it is forbidden to transfer any of these technologies there.

How can the SK industry survive without US spare parts for the litography machines, ro for clean rooms?
China can't make any of these parts.

And afterwards, SK depending on the export markets for this products.

Click to expand...

Firstly, when talking about economy, one must not focus on one part of it (semi-conductor etc.) because that will blind one from seeing the whole thing. Economy is just about money, semi-conductor is one thing of many to make money. Looking at the whole economy impact, one would immediately realize that China is the nr.1 trading partner of SK, that is SK makes most of its money from China, not US. If SK is forced to choose, whom will it choose? The answer is simple.

Instead of asking "how can SK industry survive if US block something to it?", one must also ask the question (the other side of the same coin), "who is US going to sell those surplus semi-conductors to if not SK or China?" Those chips are useless until they are assembled in a phone. Divert them to iPhones made in China? That will hurt SK, but benefit China (SK's backer). Not to China either? Then who else can consume them?

The essence is that blocking its own export (chips) will equally hurt oneself. It is like "I will starve you by starving myself".

manqiangrexue said:

Supercomputer chip technology is restricted too. Nobody taught China how to make it; the US didn't do tech transfer. You can't make it in an empty building either. Decades for the US. Years for China. That's what we saw in the supercomputer race. When the CCP sets its sights on a targeted technology, it improves fast. That's what I project for the future of semiconducters. If you don't think so, fine; no need to argue about things that haven't happened yet.

Click to expand...

Supercomputers needs nothing else just money.
Those stuffs are highly paralell processing centers, all that it needs is a big pile of CPUs and interconnection between them.
see :

To develop semi industry needs accumulated konwledge in the full vertical supply chain.
That is hard to collect.

taxiya said:

1. Military presence, yes, stage an attack on SK? I don't think so.



3. And the Warsaw pact was dissolved on 1st of July 1991, and EE got their "independent" from then on. Today's SK is not EE countries of 1991, not yet, but surely neither is SK the same as EE countries in the 1960s. SK has a FTA with China and China is SK's nr. 1 trading partner, to begin with. That trading volume (money and economy surviving) means SK gains more to buddy up with China than with anyone else IF somebody in DC want to do a blockade on SK.

Click to expand...

1. Panama.All that it needs is an attack on an US person to have reason to attack a goverment of a soverign country by the US
2.The final customer of the SK export is NOT chinese entities, China just a process step in the chain. They supply US (UK) customers . Means China can't step up to fill the void of the US - it hasn't got the technology and foreign politics to do that.
The US can afford a deep and wealthy customer base, China doesn't have and doesn't want that.