Thank you for expressing your opinion.
But sorry I still don't buy your argument.
Only thing is time, we will have to wait and see what happen next.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
But sorry I still don't buy your argument.
Only thing is time, we will have to wait and see what happen next.
For the foreseeable future, neither US nor China are anywhere close to being able to checkmate the other side's 2nd strike options, China deciding to close off the SCS and adjacents to US SSBNs does not change the MAD status quo in an appreciable way.
There are more important factors why China would shore up in the SCS, to protect its further flung territories, to provide support to commercial exploration, to deter American conventional aggression in Asia, and so on.
There are more important factors why China would shore up in the SCS, to protect its further flung territories, to provide support to commercial exploration, to deter American conventional aggression in Asia, and so on.
Generally not a fan of just people getting into SSBN discussions in non nuclear threads. But your posts has been quite low quality.
Please watch out and stop this type of posting.
As expected, the Philippines sent another resupply mission to their outpost. Not expected, however, was the fact that the supplies were delivered by air.
This is despite the Philippines' Chief of Staff stating last year that airdrops were not practical (due to limited loads), and that resupply missions would be conducted at sea. It should also be noted that the Philippines has performed airdrops to the same outpost before, in 2014.
Airdrops are only a temporary stopgap and not sustainable long-term, so the Philippines is most likely planning something else. I would call this move a sidestep which neither raises nor lowers tensions significantly, but they are on a timer now. Manila needs to make some hard choices in the next month or two. Whether they decide to escalate or step back will be telling.
This is despite the Philippines' Chief of Staff stating last year that airdrops were not practical (due to limited loads), and that resupply missions would be conducted at sea. It should also be noted that the Philippines has performed airdrops to the same outpost before, in 2014.
Airdrops are only a temporary stopgap and not sustainable long-term, so the Philippines is most likely planning something else. I would call this move a sidestep which neither raises nor lowers tensions significantly, but they are on a timer now. Manila needs to make some hard choices in the next month or two. Whether they decide to escalate or step back will be telling.
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They think that airdrop missions are safe from non-kinetic means. Wait till they hear about EW and military-grade lasers pointed at them
It's useless trying to reason with such stupidity
Lowering of tension, its the only way to save face after such bravado coming from the mouth of the Chief of Staff, it finally dawned on Marcos administration and Japan that the US don't want any trouble in the SCS, Blinken told them himself to behave while focusing on Brandon US presidential bid, the same message was given to Taiwan.
I don't think they are so blind as to miss all the PLAAF/USAF intercepts which happened right in front of them. The difference between Chinese and Filipino airpower is even bigger than seapower. But that's irrelevant in any case, because they can't airlift enough supplies to keep their outpost going long-term. Like in 2014, this is just a temporary sidestep to avoid making tensions worse while they figure out a new strategy.
The real question is what the new strategy will be. Materially, the Philippines are in a very difficult spot because it does not seem like the US/Japan/etc have any appetite to provide real support (as opposed to empty words). So how can they keep pushing when they are outmatched so heavily? But politically, they have spent the last year drawing as much domestic and international attention to this issue as possible. So how can they back down without losing a lot of domestic and international credibility?
I don't envy the guys in Manilla right now, they are between a rock and a hard place. Personally I think the most likely outcome is the US gets what it wants (military bases for a high-intensity conflict), China gets what it wants (territorial gains from low-intensity pressure), and the Philippines loses twice. And all the neighbors see what you get from jumping into the big boy pool instead of staying in the kiddie pool.
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It was revealed that the Philippines' planned resupply (by sea) was postponed due to unspecified "technical difficulties" which rendered the supply ship unseaworthy until repairs were completed. Presumably this is why they used an airdrop instead, though curiously the spokesman did not admit to the already-public information.
Perhaps china should offer the Philippines as a sign of goodwill an old oil-rig; to replace that old rust-bucket. Without the drilling equipment there wold be ample space for the detachment and the helicopter platform would ensure both weekly fresh provisions/and if required immediate medevac as well allowing for some additional experience for Philippine helicopter pilots.