China's SCS Strategy Thread

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
I hope the Chinese side force the Philippines to also admit that a special arrangement was agreed by both parties.

Otherwise china says there's a special arrangement but the Philippines denies it publically and then they successfully complete a supply mission. Makes china look weak on the surface. The Philippines can just brag that they are able to make supply missions and china can't stop them, while denying a special arrangement ever took place. A PR win.

Kind of like what the US did to the USSR during the Cuban missile crisis.

Interestingly, the statement by the Philippines about the resupply was deleted shortly after it was published. Satellite imagery verified that the mission happened, and also that CCG ships were present but did not interfere. There does not seem to be any celebration, but rather an effort to keep it low-profile. A curious situation, since obviously something is happening behind the scenes. The question is what.
 

Feima

Junior Member
Registered Member
I hope the Chinese side force the Philippines to also admit that a special arrangement was agreed by both parties.

Otherwise china says there's a special arrangement but the Philippines denies it publically and then they successfully complete a supply mission. Makes china look weak on the surface. The Philippines can just brag that they are able to make supply missions and china can't stop them, while denying a special arrangement ever took place. A PR win.

Could be that any special arrangement was between China and US. In terms of RACI the Philippines weren't responsible (for making the arrangement), are accountable (for holding up the US side of the bargain), were consulted (maybe), and were then informed to get on with it
 

lcloo

Captain
Could be that any special arrangement was between China and US. In terms of RACI the Philippines weren't responsible (for making the arrangement), are accountable (for holding up the US side of the bargain), were consulted (maybe), and were then informed to get on with it
China has been saying for many years that non-SCS countries should not be involved in SCS disputes. I doubt there is any arrangement with US.

Air drop materials are most likely medicines and food stuff. As long as there is no construction material like cement and steel bars are involved, China Coast Guards will let them go through.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Interestingly, the statement by the Philippines about the resupply was deleted shortly after it was published. Satellite imagery verified that the mission happened, and also that CCG ships were present but did not interfere. There does not seem to be any celebration, but rather an effort to keep it low-profile. A curious situation, since obviously something is happening behind the scenes. The question is what.
Well the have to resupply the 7 guys on that ship, regardless of weather the intention is to be high profile and stir up drama or do it quietly without drawing attention, if the ship isn't resupply those guys will starve. The recent air dropped resupply is probably something like the bare minimum to keep the men going.

I've been keeping an eye on that Richard Heydarian guy and others like him to see what their focus are and at the moment the hot topic seems to be fighting between Macros camp and Duterte camp:
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Some pretty serious words like "traitor" and "criminal" are being thrown around by supports from either camp, so they are probably too busy with domestic politics at the moment to further stir up trouble at Renai Shoal hence the effort to keep it quiet.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well the have to resupply the 7 guys on that ship, regardless of weather the intention is to be high profile and stir up drama or do it quietly without drawing attention, if the ship isn't resupply those guys will starve. The recent air dropped resupply is probably something like the bare minimum to keep the men going.

I've been keeping an eye on that Richard Heydarian guy and others like him to see what their focus are and at the moment the hot topic seems to be fighting between Macros camp and Duterte camp:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
It's all about the 2025 election, like I said Duterte had thrown down the gauntlet, he is protecting her daughter against nefarious forces determine to bring her down, who are those people? Well the US of course together with the oligarch and their families. They want to change the constitution to allow BBM, his family and relatives to stay in power maybe in perpetuity, they don't want another Duterte to return as they try to erase his legacy . THE PI or peoples initiative are the tool being use and it gave DUTERTE the opportunity to counter attack as the processes is highly controversial and rotten to the core as it use public money to fund it, reminiscence of old style politics of Guns, goons and gold perfected by the elder Marcos.

From my previous post, Marcos had the support of Northern Luzon and maybe part of Western Visayas, while Duterte had Eastern Visayas and the whole of Mindanao, this fissure is evident since the creation of the republic, as the concentration of power and policy making emanate in Imperial Manila. The grievances are still there brewing under the surface, it was partly extinguished under Duterte term as he is from Mindanao and a migrant from Cebu. Duterte a master politician know how to use that emotion and he is making a point that if Marcos want to play with fire he will be burned badly. I want to make a point all those survey indicating a negative image and opinion about China should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Manila is not the Philippine and I wish to amplified that.

When Duterte visited Beijing he was given an audience to meet Xi, the only second private person after Kissinger that was given the honor, what topic did they discussed? Now we had the answer and we had to thank the American for their blunders (ICC, VP impeachment proceeding and peoples Initiative) as it allowed Duterte to make his move.
Some pretty serious words like "traitor" and "criminal" are being thrown around by supports from either camp, so they are probably too busy with domestic politics at the moment to further stir up trouble at Renai Shoal hence the effort to keep it quiet.
Don't bet on it bro, Marcos and his minions will used another SCS incident to discredit Duterte as a Beijing apologist and a traitor. As the pressure mount and the dissatisfaction increase, it's his only tool in his toolbox. The SCS is part of a multiprong US strategy of containing and initiating a war with China, the Target date is 2025, the question is will the Brandon allowed it as he concentrate on his Presidential campaign.
 
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yearofrooster

New Member
Registered Member
The Philippines conducted a supply mission today, which was not opposed by CCG at all. Clearly some sort of arrangement was worked out at the meeting in Shanghai, but the specifics remain unknown. Neither country provided any details.

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During the previous airdrop (also uncontested), the Chinese spokesman mentioned "special arrangements" had been agreed on, which was denied by the Filipino spokesman. Perhaps it's true after all.
China said Philippines’ activity was monitored.
 

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chlosy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well the have to resupply the 7 guys on that ship, regardless of weather the intention is to be high profile and stir up drama or do it quietly without drawing attention, if the ship isn't resupply those guys will starve. The recent air dropped resupply is probably something like the bare minimum to keep the men going.

I've been keeping an eye on that Richard Heydarian guy and others like him to see what their focus are and at the moment the hot topic seems to be fighting between Macros camp and Duterte camp:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Some pretty serious words like "traitor" and "criminal" are being thrown around by supports from either camp, so they are probably too busy with domestic politics at the moment to further stir up trouble at Renai Shoal hence the effort to keep it quiet.
Is it not an often used strategy to stir up external trouble to divert attention from domestic turmoil?
 
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