China's SCS Strategy Thread

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Facm337

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Does anyone have any insights into Indonesia's recent election results and how it works affect policy towards China?

Prabowo Subianto appears to have won the presidential election by a landslide. From what I've read it appears he will continue Jokowi's pro-China policy, but Marcos in the Philippines said the same but once he became president he backflipped/got blackmailed into being anti-China. Does Prabowo have any skeletons that could be exploited?

Regarding the legislative election I'm not sure how important the Indonesian parliament is but it seems no one has anywhere near a majority, although PDI-P (Jokowi's party) has the most votes at about 16%. Are there any explicit pro/anti China parties and do they have a majority?

I'm quite cautiously optimistic as imo Indonesia is the most important ASEAN country for China to have a good relationship with.
 
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gelgoog

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I agree that Indonesia is a key ASEAN country. Unfortunately they did not want to be part of BRICS.

I do not know much about current Indonesian politics. But you have to take into consideration that Indonesia has a strong presidential system where the parliament has little actual say in what the country's policy is.
I think the best solution is to try to help Indonesia develop its economy and military as much as possible so they can be self-reliant. But they have had a long history of Western interventions. This guy used to be in the military and he is married with Suharto's second daughter. So I would consider him to be a US stooge until proven contrary. Unfortunately to me it seems his election will lead to a backslide by Indonesia to a more authoritarian form of government. Right now what they need is economic development. If this leads to a re-run of Suharto's regime it will just continue his legacy of corruption and lackluster economic development.
 
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Enestori

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I believe Prabowo will be friendly towards China.

First, Prabowo proposed a Ukraine peace plan that was unacceptable to the West. It let Russia retain some gains in the Donbas, an idea the empire loathes. An imperial vassal would not propose a peace plan hated by the West.

Second, Prabowo is Muslim.

Third, Prabowo and his campaign consistently critique the West, such as Western hypocrisy and the European Union. I do not recall the Philippines BBK ever saying anything skeptical of the West.

Fourth, the USA heavily criticised Prabowo for supposedly violating human rights during the 1990s. I'm not too familiar with 1990s Indonesian history. What I do know is that the USA never criticises allies or vassals for human rights violations, not even genocide.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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i think Prabowo will continue non-aligned policy in Indonesia. It just doesn't make sense for growing, but still middle power like Indonesia to side one over the other. After all, being unaligned allows you to extract concessions from both side.

Philippines is a different story. It's historically an American colony. If anything, Duterte was an anomaly.
 
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gelgoog

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Enestori said:
Second, Prabowo is Muslim.
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His mother was Protestant. His parents married in the Netherlands. He studied for a couple of years in a London school. Sounds like a rootless cosmopolitan to me.

Enestori said:
Third, Prabowo and his campaign consistently critique the West, such as Western hypocrisy and the European Union. I do not recall the Philippines BBK ever saying anything skeptical of the West.
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He was around when East Timor got its independence thanks to the West and the Clintons. And he used to be a combat officer in East Timor. So he's probably annoyed to say the least.

Enestori said:
Fourth, the USA heavily criticised Prabowo for supposedly violating human rights during the 1990s. I'm not too familiar with 1990s Indonesian history. What I do know is that the USA never criticises allies or vassals for human rights violations, not even genocide.
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The US already allowed him to visit their country so he could buy F-15s.
When he got sanctioned it was different times. This was the Clinton administration when the US thought it would be the world police and even sent troops into Somalia.
 
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Temstar

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What?
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“If we are to examine DNA, there are very few Filipinos with no Chinese DNA. My family actually makes much of the fact that we have, within our family tree, an infamous Chinese pirate who used to operate within the waters of the then South China Sea. That cannot be discounted,” he said.
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I don't think that's being partisan towards China, at least not yet. That's more like a threat saying "if you're going to just say things and not pull your weight helping me in the SCS then I'm going to start saying I'm partially Chinese".

By the way anyone know which famous Chinese pirate did Marcos family descend from?

Tsai and Lai better not try this shit down the line.:rolleyes:
 
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ansy1968

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What?
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I don't think that's being partisan towards China, at least not yet. That's more like a threat saying "if you're going to just say things and not pull your weight helping me in the SCS then I'm going to start saying I'm partially Chinese".

By the way anyone know which famous Chinese pirate did Marcos family descend from?

Tsai and Lai better not try this shit down the line.:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Limahong aka Lim Hong or Lin Feng.
 
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