China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

Hawks of all kinds manage to retain their positions in many governments despite aggressive views on matters. Doesn't mean they necessarily reflect official feelings and certainly not policy

True statement.

 

[Blackstone]

It looks like the China-threat chickenhawks got their way, and US will ease arms embargo against Vietnam. I'm at a lost to what benefits could result from needlessly provoking China in such a clumsy way. I say that because it's hard to imagine US selling Vietnam weapon systems that can truly threaten China, so whatever Vietnam buys from the US wouldn't be any better than the stuff it's already getting from Russia. The tail (chickenhawks) is wagging the dog (Obama)!

Earth to chickenhawks: take a minute and look at your maps; Vietnam has a long land border with China, so no one could help them but the Vietnamese themselves. P-3s wouldn't do crap for Vietnam, but they would irk China for no appreciable gains. Wake up and smell the coffee!

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Nearly 40 years after the United States helicoptered its last soldiers out of Vietnam in an ignominious retreat, Washington is moving closer to lifting an arms embargo on its former enemy, with initial sales likely to help Hanoi deal with growing naval challenges from China.

Senior U.S. officials with knowledge of the initiative said Washington wants to support Vietnam by strengthening its ability to monitor and defend its coastline, and said unarmed P-3 surveillance planes could be one of the first sales.

Such aircraft would also allow Vietnam to keep track of China's increasingly assertive activities in the South China Sea, a potential flash point because of interlocking claims from many countries to its islands and reefs.

Two senior Obama administration officials said discussions on easing the embargo are taking place in Washington and could result in a decision later this year.

"The mood is changing, and it is something we're looking at seriously," said one of the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity. "What we have found is a partner in which our interests are converging."

Interest in warmer ties with Vietnam, despite U.S. concerns about its human rights record, aligns with President Barack Obama's strategy to refocus economic, political and military attention toward Asia.

The move to lift the embargo follows a gradual resumption of links between the United States and Vietnam over two decades, which accelerated with a series of high-level diplomatic and military meetings in recent months.

Two senior executives in the U.S. weapons industry told Reuters they expected the U.S. government to lift the arms ban soon. "There is a lot of discussion about allowing weapons sales to Vietnam. It is a promising area for us," said one of the executives, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment.



CAUGHT OFF GUARD

Vietnam's vulnerability to China was exposed in early May when Beijing positioned a massive oil rig in waters that Hanoi claims as part of its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone.

While Vietnam has embarked on a multi-billion-dollar military modernization program, its surveillance capabilities are limited, and the unannounced deployment of the drilling platform caught Hanoi by surprise. China moved the rig back toward its coast in mid-July.

The two sides clashed at sea in 1988 when China occupied its first holdings in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. China took full control of another South China Sea archipelago, the Paracels, after a naval showdown with what was South Vietnam in 1974.

The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have claims in the South China Sea. China has a separate maritime dispute with Japan over islands in the East China Sea.

U.S. Senator John McCain, a former prisoner of war in Vietnam who led the charge to normalize ties with Vietnam in the early 1990s, said he would shortly present a bipartisan proposal to lift some of the restrictions on arms sales.

McCain was one of four U.S. senators to meet the Hanoi leadership and discuss the arms embargo this summer at a time when Sino-Vietnamese ties were at their lowest ebb in decades.

In August, six days after the senators' visit, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the first trip to Vietnam by America's top soldier since 1971. Vietnam People's Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nguyen Van Hien traveled to the United States last week and discussed joint naval exercises with Navy Secretary Ray Mabus.

Vietnam's foreign minister, Pham Binh Minh, will visit Washington in early October for talks with Secretary of State John Kerry, and U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is expected to go to Vietnam before the end of the year.

Vietnam is unlikely to stray too far into the U.S. orbit. Soon after the meetings with U.S. civilian and military officials, Hanoi sent a Politburo heavyweight to Beijing to try to repair damaged ties between the communist neighbors.

"Vietnam understands China is forever at its doorstep and wants to have an independent foreign policy," said Phuong Nguyen, a research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, warned against overstating the rapprochement between the United States and Vietnam.

"I don't believe that Vietnam is looking to swap out the long-term party-to-party relationship that it has enjoyed with Beijing, albeit punctuated with some pretty violent wars, for an exclusive relationship or an alliance with the United States," Russel told Reuters.



STRATEGIC LOCATION

Russel said Vietnam's strategic location was a good reason to work more closely with Hanoi, adding that easing the embargo would be "not a bad thing."

"We are open to - and consider it in our interests to - help countries like Vietnam develop their maritime domain awareness as well as their maritime capacities, and hopefully there will be more to come," he said.

Vietnam is already a big buyer of weapons from Russia, its Cold War-era patron.

It has two state-of-the-art Kilo-class submarines and will get a third in November under a $2.6 billion deal agreed with Moscow in 2009. Three more submarines are to be delivered in the next two years.

Vietnam has also bought modern naval frigates and corvettes, mostly from Russia.

But the P-3 surveillance planes would fill a gap for Vietnam.

There are 435 of the Lockheed Martin-made P-3s in service worldwide, operated by 21 governments, according to Lockheed’s website. The U.S. Navy is replacing its P-3 aircraft with more advanced P-8 surveillance planes built by Boeing Co.

One Lockheed executive was quoted in April 2013 by IHS Janes, a trade publication, as saying Vietnam could request six P-3s, and that there appeared to be growing support in the U.S. government for approving the request. Lockheed officials declined comment on the issue to Reuters, since such weapons sales are handled by the governments involved.

The State Department declined to say whether Vietnam had submitted a formal "letter of request" for the aircraft. One source familiar with the issue said officials were still working through the decisions before such a request would be submitted.

U.S. government officials view sales of maritime surveillance equipment as a good start for the new chapter in U.S.-Vietnamese relations and see P-3 aircraft as a "logical choice," one source said.

 

[Geographer]

I wonder if the U.S. will continue using the human rights excuse for maintaining the arms embargo on China. Vietnam's human rights record is only slightly better than China's. There are hundreds of political prisoners and including dozens of students and bloggers languishing in Vietnamese prisons. One recent example is the sentencing of 50 year old blogger

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, aka Dieu Cay, to 12 years in prison. Twelve years for speaking out against the government is outrageous. Heck, a single day for this non-crime is outrageous. This is what the state newspaper Tuoi Tre wrote about Dieu Cay:

The defendants’ offence was extremely serious, negatively impacting national security and the image of Vietnam in the international community, the jury said.

According to the indictment, Nguyen Van Hai was the leader of the blog “the Freelance Journalists Club" that was set up for writing, disseminating and storing documents distorting the Party and State to sow suspicions and undermine people’s trust in the administration.

Then there is former journalist and blogger

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who will spend the next two years in prison. There are many others: bloggers, students, journalists, priests, monks, former police officers, all in prison because they spoke up. I wonder if John McCain knows about these people. It's sad that his eagerness to encircle China has come at the expense of some of his core values.

 

[Doombreed]

It looks like the China-threat chickenhawks got their way, and US will ease arms embargo against Vietnam. I'm at a lost to what benefits could result from needlessly provoking China in such a clumsy way. I say that because it's hard to imagine US selling Vietnam weapon systems that can truly threaten China, so whatever Vietnam buys from the US wouldn't be any better than the stuff it's already getting from Russia. The tail (chickenhawks) is wagging the dog (Obama)!

Earth to chickenhawks: take a minute and look at your maps; Vietnam has a long land border with China, so no one could help them but the Vietnamese themselves. P-3s wouldn't do crap for Vietnam, but they would irk China for no appreciable gains. Wake up and smell the coffee!

Then why are you worried? You seem worried. Are you worried? Don't be worried.

If anything else, it would be a good pay day for the MIC.

 

[Doombreed]

I wonder if the U.S. will continue using the human rights excuse for maintaining the arms embargo on China. Vietnam's human rights record is only slightly better than China's.

Lol. Looking to shop are you? Yeah, the "when we practice war games with our troops we imagine the OpFor is you" excuse don't go down well with the diplomats. Are there anything else you would like me to spell it out for you?

 

[delft]

I wonder if the U.S. will continue using the human rights excuse for maintaining the arms embargo on China. Vietnam's human rights record is only slightly better than China's. There are hundreds of political prisoners and including dozens of students and bloggers languishing in Vietnamese prisons. One recent example is the sentencing of 50 year old blogger

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, aka Dieu Cay, to 12 years in prison. Twelve years for speaking out against the government is outrageous. Heck, a single day for this non-crime is outrageous. This is what the state newspaper Tuoi Tre wrote about Dieu Cay:

Then there is former journalist and blogger

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

who will spend the next two years in prison. There are many others: bloggers, students, journalists, priests, monks, former police officers, all in prison because they spoke up. I wonder if John McCain knows about these people. It's sad that his eagerness to encircle China has come at the expense of some of his core values.

What about the human rights records of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Bahrain? This is all hypocrisy, so it will continue to be used when convenient.

 

[xiabonan]

I wonder if the U.S. will continue using the human rights excuse for maintaining the arms embargo on China. Vietnam's human rights record is only slightly better than China's. There are hundreds of political prisoners and including dozens of students and bloggers languishing in Vietnamese prisons. One recent example is the sentencing of 50 year old blogger

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, aka Dieu Cay, to 12 years in prison. Twelve years for speaking out against the government is outrageous. Heck, a single day for this non-crime is outrageous. This is what the state newspaper Tuoi Tre wrote about Dieu Cay:

Then there is former journalist and blogger

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

who will spend the next two years in prison. There are many others: bloggers, students, journalists, priests, monks, former police officers, all in prison because they spoke up. I wonder if John McCain knows about these people. It's sad that his eagerness to encircle China has come at the expense of some of his core values.

Core Values? American politicians have no CORE values, they only act and must only act in the national interests of the USA.

Human rights? There's still people believing that excuse?

The United States has cooperated, allied, helped, or even nurtured, some of the WORST dictators, kings, human rights violators, or even TERRORISTS.

Look at the Middle East Kingdoms. Look at the Central American and South American dictators in the late 20th century. Look at Osama Bin Laden who once was working for the CIA to fight the Russians. Look at today's ISIS, one or two years ago these people are "freedom fighters" because they oppose Assad, today they're ruthless and heartless terrorists that must be eliminated from the surface of earth.

Not too long ago Assad was the bad guy, and today the US works with him to use Syrian airspace to bomb the ISIS.

Saudi Arabia, a country which ruthlessly oppress and violates human rights, especially women's rights, is the largest and most important ally of the US in the ME. Heck, SA even backs some of the terrorist groups that the US is fighting!

Pinochet, probably one of the worst dictators and human rights violators in South America during the late 20th century, came to power by backing from the US! Why? Because he's anti-communism!

Pinochet ended democratically elected government in Chile. He ended civilian government in Chile.

The US, backed a dictator, who ended democracy in his country. How ironic, huh?

Lee Kwan Yew, founding father of Singapore, ruthlessly purged and killed and expelled communists in the early days of Singapore, is also backed by the US. Even today, recently, a documentary telling the stories of then communist Singaporeans in exile is banned in Singapore.

Mubarak, dictator of Egypt, is another famous example. Egypt receives billions of US aids every years during Mubarak's dictatorship, using American taxpayer's money to maintain dictatorship.

Even in my own country, this has happened before. The KMT government was known for its corruption, negligence of livelihoods of the Chinese people, and widely using spies and secret police to assassinate scholars or communists. Chiang Kai Shek himself was a dictator for life as well. Heck, even his son was a dictator for life!

I have not even started on American government's violation of human rights at home. This, too, is too long a list to write.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say that the Chinese government is all good, has clean records on human rights, or anything of that kind. the CPC and the Chinese government have a lot to improve on, and a lot of mistakes waiting to be rectified.

However, it is really irritating to hear all the hypocritical accusations from the US. Clean your own mess first before criticizing others.

In fact, I think that American actions/policies, have either directly or indirectly violated human rights of more people on a wider and deeper scale than any other country on Earth. Okay maybe the old British Empire have a shot at the top spot, but the US is definitely one of the top 2 candidates. China doesn't even come close to this two.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Core Values? American politicians have no CORE values, they only act and must only act in the national interests of the USA.

Human rights? There's still people believing that excuse?

The United States has cooperated, allied, helped, or even nurtured, some of the WORST dictators, kings, human rights violators, or even TERRORISTS.

Look at the Middle East Kingdoms. Look at the Central American and South American dictators in the late 20th century. Look at Osama Bin Laden who once was working for the CIA to fight the Russians. Look at today's ISIS, one or two years ago these people are "freedom fighters" because they oppose Assad, today they're ruthless and heartless terrorists that must be eliminated from the surface of earth.

Not too long ago Assad was the bad guy, and today the US works with him to use Syrian airspace to bomb the ISIS.

Saudi Arabia, a country which ruthlessly oppress and violates human rights, especially women's rights, is the largest and most important ally of the US in the ME. Heck, SA even backs some of the terrorist groups that the US is fighting!

Pinochet, probably one of the worst dictators and human rights violators in South America during the late 20th century, came to power by backing from the US! Why? Because he's anti-communism!

Pinochet ended democratically elected government in Chile. He ended civilian government in Chile.

The US, backed a dictator, who ended democracy in his country. How ironic, huh?

Lee Kwan Yew, founding father of Singapore, ruthlessly purged and killed and expelled communists in the early days of Singapore, is also backed by the US. Even today, recently, a documentary telling the stories of then communist Singaporeans in exile is banned in Singapore.

Mubarak, dictator of Egypt, is another famous example. Egypt receives billions of US aids every years during Mubarak's dictatorship, using American taxpayer's money to maintain dictatorship.

Even in my own country, this has happened before. The KMT government was known for its corruption, negligence of livelihoods of the Chinese people, and widely using spies and secret police to assassinate scholars or communists. Chiang Kai Shek himself was a dictator for life as well. Heck, even his son was a dictator for life!

I have not even started on American government's violation of human rights at home. This, too, is too long a list to write.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say that the Chinese government is all good, has clean records on human rights, or anything of that kind. the CPC and the Chinese government have a lot to improve on, and a lot of mistakes waiting to be rectified.

However, it is really irritating to hear all the hypocritical accusations from the US. Clean your own mess first before criticizing others.

In fact, I think that American actions/policies, have either directly or indirectly violated human rights of more people on a wider and deeper scale than any other country on Earth. Okay maybe the old British Empire have a shot at the top spot, but the US is definitely one of the top 2 candidates. China doesn't even come close to this two.

Back on Topic little fella, you are running fur afield, yes America is the worst nation on the planet, that's why people are breaking down the doors to get in here.

 

[shen]

Core Values? American politicians have no CORE values, they only act and must only act in the national interests of the USA.

I get worried when I see a politician with Core Values. Like that woman with the crazy eyes Samantha Power. National interests can be negotiated, compromises can be reach. Core Values? you got your values I got my values. what do we do? two men enter one man leaves?

 

[broadsword]

Back on Topic little fella, you are running fur afield, yes America is the worst nation on the planet, that's why people are breaking down the doors to get in here.

He did not say America is the worst nation.