China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Maikeru]

It seems to me China's best option for challenging USA is in the SCS rather than in Taiwan (or Senkaku). When it feels ready, China can force the PH military off 2nd Thomas Shoal and leave the US with 2 options - either start WW3 over an unoccupied shoal of dubious strategic and economic significance, or abandon its treaty ally and leave its entire APAC alliance system in tatters. To preserve this option PH should be allowed to supply its outpost to the extent necessary in order to preserve it but not to make it too difficult to remove eventually.
If US does back down then TW and Japan (and the rest of the world) will of course take note:

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

TBH, I don't think daring the other side for a war over an atoll beached with a rusty derelict is worth it. At least, not in the present time - Because China do still need some more time.

Besides, no matter how much construction material is delivered to the Sierra Madre to keep it from disintegrating due to the element, just lobbing a couple laser-guided bombs from a JH-7 is enough to blow that derelict out of the water. The Sierra Madre doesn't even have a CIWS to speak of.

Of course, short of a real direct conflict between China and the Philippines (+ the US), nobody is going to pull that trigger. And, no, I'm not saying that China should just stand aside, let those Filipino boats ferry construction material to that derelict and do absolutely nothing.

What China should do right now is to make it as annoying and irritating for the Philippines as possible, such that they will come to the conclusion that attempting any sort of resupply missions other than giving food and water to the Filipino garrisons on the derelict is worthless.

The key here is to avoid causing any fatalities on both sides as best as possible.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

TBH, I don't think daring the other side for a war over an atoll beached with a rusty derelict is worth it. At least, not in the present time - Because China do still need some more time.

Besides, no matter how much construction material is delivered to the Sierra Madre to keep it from disintegrating due to the element, just lobbing a couple laser-guided bombs from a JH-7 is enough to blow that derelict out of the water. The Sierra Madre doesn't even have a CIWS to speak of.

Of course, short of a real direct conflict between China and the Philippines (+ the US), nobody is going to pull that trigger. And, no, I'm not saying that China should just stand aside, let those Filipino boats ferry construction material to that derelict and do absolutely nothing.

What China should do right now is to make it as annoying and irritating for the Philippines as possible, such that they will come to the conclusion that attempting any sort of resupply missions other than giving food and water to the Filipino garrisons on the derelict is worthless.

The key here is to avoid causing any fatalities on both sides as best as possible.

Just make it costly for the Philippines and that by in itself will take care of the rest. Meaning, the U.S. must cough up financial support for the Philippines to continue such fiscally draining operation based on the established fact that Philippines is financially cash strapped where the bulk of it's newly announced military funding ($5 billion U.S.D.) will be tapped into which would needlessly siphoned away from their dreamland modernization plan.

China ought to raise the stakes anywhere it has competing claims with the Philippines and try to identify, isolate, and portray the Philippines as the belligerent player in contrast to other ASEAN claimants where CHINA plays a more hospitable, even amenable receptive power. This way, the PH will be alone with the exception of the U.S. and her vassals like Japan, and would be power, India.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Just make it costly for the Philippines and that by in itself will take care of the rest. Meaning, the U.S. must cough up financial support for the Philippines to continue such fiscally draining operation based on the established fact that Philippines is financially cash strapped where the bulk of it's newly announced military funding ($5 billion U.S.D.) will be tapped into which would needlessly siphoned away from their dreamland modernization plan.

China ought to raise the stakes anywhere it has competing claims with the Philippines and try to identify, isolate, and portray the Philippines as the belligerent player in contrast to other ASEAN claimants where CHINA plays a more hospitable, even amenable receptive power. This way, the PH will be alone with the exception of the U.S. and her vassals like Japan, and would be power, India.

China should continue to push for a more open and better economic trade deals with ASEAN countries and integrate their economies with China's to open up opportunities from the people in those regions allowing the aspiring entrepreneurs, especially the internet, social media b2b, b2c to gain more influence, clout, and therefore political say and leverage/competition vs the entrenched businesses and old guards. But the access to China's market and investment should only be targeted towards ASEAN countries that respect and adhere to China's national core interests.

At the end of the day, all competition is about economics, always has been, and always will be. Asians try to ape the west because of their economic power and heft. Asians look upto Japan based on their economic power and technology despite their genocidal rampage and damage against ASEAN countries including China. China is at this stage of its path, it's only being stymied by the incessant attack on its preferred political system and governance for reasons we all know and recognized.

Artificial intelligence, LLM, IOT, automation will cause further problems to countries like the Philippines that don't have the key elements and economic foundations to leverage these new technologies that are and will shape our world. The Philippines is competing for cheap Labour workforce also know as O.F.W. to many countries in the Middle East, AMERICA, CANADA, Europe, Australia etc. that's not dissimilar to what India does on a far bigger level, scale and success. Unlike India where it has succeeded in leveraging its potential and market size, the Philippines don't have such promise or potential. It's education system is behind that of India let alone China when it comes to high tech, STEM based curriculum. The Philippines has nothing to offer beyond agriculture and cheap Labour.

She is just a loud irritant; like a barking chihuahua who's bark is bigger than its actual bite.

 

[ansy1968]

China should continue to push for a more open and better economic trade deals with ASEAN countries and integrate their economies with China's to open up opportunities from the people in those regions allowing the aspiring entrepreneurs, especially the internet, social media b2b, b2c to gain more influence, clout, and therefore political say and leverage/competition vs the entrenched businesses and old guards. But the access to China's market and investment should only be targeted towards ASEAN countries that respect and adhere to China's national core interests.

At the end of the day, all competition is about economics, always has been, and always will be. Asians try to ape the west because of their economic power and heft. Asians look upto Japan based on their economic power and technology despite their genocidal rampage and damage against ASEAN countries including China. China is at this stage of its path, it's only being stymied by the incessant attack on its preferred political system and governance for reasons we all know and recognized.

Artificial intelligence, LLM, IOT, automation will cause further problems to countries like the Philippines that don't have the key elements and economic foundations to leverage these new technologies that are and will shape our world. The Philippines is competing for cheap Labour workforce also know as O.F.W. to many countries in the Middle East, AMERICA, CANADA, Europe, Australia etc. that's not dissimilar to what India does on a far bigger level, scale and success. Unlike India where it has succeeded in leveraging its potential and market size, the Philippines don't have such promise or potential. It's education system is behind that of India let alone China when it comes to high tech, STEM based curriculum. The Philippines has nothing to offer beyond agriculture and cheap Labour.

She is just a loud irritant; like a barking chihuahua who's bark is bigger than its actual bite.

Bro the Chinese strategy since SCS had become a Chinese pond is to massively invest on two big important ASEAN members, Indonesia and Thailand, gaining the initiative on trade The rest of the peripheries will automatically follow suit as they don't want to be left out. All ASEAN members compete with each other for investment and its obvious China is the driver of World Economic Growth not the Collective west and Japan combined.

 

[Overbom]

TBH, I don't think daring the other side for a war over an atoll beached with a rusty derelict is worth it. At least, not in the present time - Because China do still need some more time.

Daring the other side for a war over an atoll beached with a rusty derelict is certainly not worth it

Daring the other side for a war over crumbling its security structure in the Asia Pacific is certainly worth it and most likely the end goal of China.

I am not saying that China will do it now, but it will certainly try to achieve that somehow in the future. Pressuring Philippines is merely one step of the overall plan

 

[Biscuits]

Making PH focus all their resources there also lets China act without threat in the rest of its bases.

Having a few CG ships around that inspect and dump anything except food/water for the besieged PH outpost costs China nearly nothing. When there is an opportunity for another focus to open up, China doesn't even need to bomb the outpost, it can tow it out into open waters and let it sink without having to fire shots.

 

[tphuang]

what they are doing now is really just punishment for Philippines providing additional bases to America. Integrate rest of ASEAN under RCEP and give them goodies. Nothing for PH. The recent exercise in SCS had Vietnam, Malaysia & Thailand. Seems message PH is quite obvious.

No need to go further than that while the next few years is really critical for China's security & technology development

 

[Micron]

Bongbong has been obediently following the game plan and narratives lay out by the Pentagon and Biden Administration.
Take a look at this news.
E.g. Bongbong announced Philippines will leave BRI. How would it affects Philippines if she stays? The whole idea is to propagate and demonize China.
Anyone can tells that Philippines leaving BRI serve her no purpose apart from being further isolated from the grand trade route that involved 151 nations.

 

[ansy1968]

E.g. Bongbong announced Philippines will leave BRI. How would it affects Philippines if she stays? The whole idea is to propagate and demonize China.
Anyone can tells that Philippines leaving BRI serve her no purpose apart from being further isolated from the grand trade route that involved 151 nations.

We were never invited in the first place even under Duterte administration the suspicion are still there, the Chinese pledge $10 billion of investment and aid matching that of the Japanese BUT here is the context the Chinese ask the Philippine to provide counterpart fund before releasing the loan, Bitter Lesson learn from previous corrupt dealings with Arroyo administration. (the aborted NBN -ZTE telecom deal and the North railway project)

The Philippine never offer a strategic value for the Chinese, no natural resources, high level of poverty and its vaunted strategic location had been erased by those artificial island in the SCS and advances in China military capabilities especially of their rocket forces and drones.

The Chinese knows that the political dynamics here are still control by Western leaning oligarchs and they aren't willing to coopted them as a matter of principle. That's the key so instead they look elsewhere and find Indonesia and Thailand as an attractive alternative.