China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Situation seems to have been resolved without incident. No drama today, apparently. Perhaps they did not bring construction supplies this time, as the statement makes no mention of or objection to them (just food and life essentials).
It's possible that the US had a quiet word with the Philippines telling them not to push things right now, what with the upcoming APEC meeting and the ME crisis. Or maybe the Philippines themselves are being patient because they think they will have a better opportunity later (there have been discussions in Manila about using alternatives like faster boats, airdrops, or even beaching a different ship in a different place).
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Interesting, I wonder if they will release a video like they did the past two times. Personally I think water cannons are less escalatory than physical contact, but who knows.
It's indeed intriguing to see how the situation unfolds, and the potential release of a video could provide valuable insights. The comparison between water cannons and physical contact raises a valid point. Water cannons are often considered a non-lethal alternative, aiming to deter without causing severe harm. Their use can be less escalatory in terms of physical injuries.
I don't think China's timid approach is working against the Philippines. They are doing weekly resupply missions now and succeeding every single time. What is the point of trying to block these resupply attempts if they eventually still succeed. China with so many ships still fail because they are too afraid to do kinetic actions like ramming or boarding these ships.
No outpost needs weekly resupply for necessities. its obvious they are sending construction materials and this article says they have already constructed a concrete structure inside the ship. If these weekly supply missions continue, then very soon they will construct a full base there and even if that ship falls apart, that concrete structure will remain as phillipino outpost.
That NYT article mentions only food and fuel deliveries, and the CCG statement (above) mentions food and living essentials. It seems that there was no construction material delivered this time. And as the article also notes, they cannot transport the large quantities of material and heavy equipment they would need to construct a real base. They have built a concrete structure on top of the ship, and it is specifically mentioned to be unfinished. Also it has been two weeks since the last resupply operation (10/23). Which is normal. Sometimes they do two weeks, sometimes a month. Remember on 10/23 one of the resupply boats did not make it through.
You should pay more attention to the details and be more patient. That ship has been there since 1999. A few more years will not change anything. And the Philippines is far from the only country with outposts, do you see CCG putting so much pressure on Vietnam's new base? The ship itself is not super important, just a way to exert political pressure as a reflection of the broader situation. Tensions are high with the Philippines recently, therefore more is happening around the ship.
I think you jinxed it! I wonder where this is located if it is "within Japanese EEZ"