China's SCS Strategy Thread

FairAndUnbiased

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True, but the US is also playing a game of tripwire. That’s why they are conducting FONOPS in a near weekly basis, whilst try to have at least one carrier battle group (ideally two) deployed in the region. One could argue that should China decide to strike, these CGs would be decimated by ASBMs. However, I think one should not underestimate how much defence planners in the US doubt CCP’s resolve. Many in Washington still believe that regardless how modernised the PLA has become, the CCP would not dare to start a war with the US, so the game of tripwire and salami slicing works so long as the PLA does not bite. And PH’s recent provocations in Huangyan/Scarborough demonstrate exactly such questioning of the PLA’s resolve and believe that China is so bogged down by its own economic ills and domestic social contradictions that Beijing is a paper tiger so long as the US does not try to directly overthrown the Party’s rule. This is also why Biden is even more aggressive than Trump and his team when dealing with China.
That would be a bad assumption then because historically what happened was China built multiple airbase with 3000 m runways capable of hosting strategic aircraft as they watched and did nothing, all within the past 10 years.

If they believed China was a paper tiger they could've rammed the dredging ships and dared China to do something about it in 2009. Did they? Well, the islands are there.
 

Temstar

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The Philippines’ national security adviser on Saturday rejected talk of a plot to destabilise the government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, saying the military and the entire security sector were loyal to their commander-in-chief.

“Yes, there were healthy and passionate exchanges (and) debates among some retired or former military officers, and even some criticism against certain policies of the current administration. But they are within the bounds of our democratic space,” Mr Eduardo Ano said in a statement.

“There is no destabilisation plot (and) movement against the government,” he said.
What's your view on this? Something to do with Marcos' SCS strategy? Do you think those that don't agree with Marcos see him as going too far or not far enough?
 

ansy1968

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What's your view on this? Something to do with Marcos' SCS strategy? Do you think those that don't agree with Marcos see him as going too far or not far enough?
There are a lot of rumblings early on because of nepotism exhibited by her wife.

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Jan 8, 2023 — Gen. Bartolome Bacarro as AFP chief of staff in August last year, replacing Centino. Centino will be retiring from the service in February.




Plus BBM is an uninspiring Commander in Chief and his attempt to discredit the Duterte family especially the daughter is having an impact on his popularity as the father who is greatly admired in the AFP had spoken out against his administration.

FYI, when the elder Duterte personally meet Xi, guess what topic they discussed, my opinion Chinese had given him intel info about the US covert role in destroying his legacy, the country and the collusion with the oligarch. (her wife came from the Araneta family one of the richest oligarch in the Philippine).

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Oct 12, 2023 — Former president Rodrigo Duterte came to his daughter's defense amid controversies on her request for confidential funds.
 

ansy1968

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The only way to cleanse this country and established its owned national identity is to have a violent revolution, Its the only way. The established oligarchy system is too strong and well entrenched. The military hierarchy are bought, its the only route for them to achieved social mobility. We can't put a lipstick on the pig anymore cause the smell stink to high heaven, we had try a peaceful revolution in 1986 and it gotten worst, we replaced a corrupt family with another one, more corrupt and incompetent. And corruption and nepotism had been legalized and become the norm with each election cycle electing the same politician.

There is a possibility of violent uprising in 2015 after THE Mamasapano clash, killing 44 SAF, BUT it was tempered when Duterte announced his candidacy, in a way the oligarch should thank him for saving their skin, the mid and lower officers had a different mindset than those Colonel and above cause they're at the field, experiencing the same hardship with their men and seeing first hand the suffering of the people. They will follow Duterte directive if he ask for Marcos overthrown, so YES, BBM is shaking in his booths and is hiding in his bed with his favorite pillow.
 
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CMP

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The only way to cleanse this country and established its owned national identity is to have a violent revolution, Its the only way. The established oligarchy system is too strong and well entrenched. The military hierarchy are bought, its the only route for them to achieved social mobility. We can't put a lipstick on the pig anymore cause the smell stink to high heaven, we had try a peaceful revolution in 1986 and it gotten worst, we replaced a corrupt family with another one, more corrupt and incompetent. And corruption and nepotism had been legalized and become the norm with each election cycle electing the same politician.

There is a possibility of violent uprising in 2015 after THE Mamasapano clash, killing 44 SAF, BUT it was tempered when Duterte announced his candidacy, in a way the oligarch should thank him for saving their skin, the mid and lower officers had a different mindset than those Colonel and above cause they're at the field, experiencing the same hardship with their men and seeing first hand the suffering of the people. They will follow Duterte directive if he ask for Marcos overthrown, so YES, BBM is shaking in his booths and is hiding in his bed with his favorite pillow.
I always got the impression Duterte was a real man's man, but I had no idea the extent of loyalty he inspired.
 

ansy1968

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I always got the impression Duterte was a real man's man, but I had no idea the extent of loyalty he inspired.
I have a friend working inside the National Security Council (that SOB want to recruit me as a sleeper cells agent and I flatly refuse :mad: ) He stated that there are rumblings especially of junior officers as their promotion had been politicized, too many generals commanding to few troops.

When Duterte left office the AFP was well equip to defend the country from domestic terrorism and insurgency, he is well like cause he doubled the salaries of active duty personnel that the previous and past administration considered as impossible and inflationary. He delivered from his campaign promise and show that there is MONEY available IF a gov't is not corrupt with a leader who has strong political will.

And also he show empathy with ordinary troops, visiting the wounded and attending the wake of every soldiers that died while performing their duty. (previous presidents and Marcos doesn't see the need to do so) He also abolished corruption inside the logistic department by shaming those official publicly for the delaying the release of fund, all of these action endeared himself with the military.

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2018 doubles the base pay of a Police Officer (PO) I in the Philippine National Police or a Private in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and ...

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Jan 9, 2018 — The doubling of salaries of soldiers and police was among Duterte's major campaign promises when he ran for president in 2016. The increase ...

The Airforce received Shiny new toys like the Sikorsky S70i black hawk had been purchase not the second hand Huey that breaks down a lot, T129 ATAK our first modern gunship, and fighter aircraft. ( Before PAF (Philippine Air Force) is known as more Air than Force) new ship for the Navy, The Army had been boosted by more firepower through acquisition of brand new artillery and Armor, logistically the troops can be sustainable supply for long duration in the field, preventing casualties from ambushed as BEFORE the troop need to go back to barracks for resupply.

So I hope this answer your question about the Extent of loyalty he inspired which is massive inside the 3 major services in the AFP.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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I have a friend working inside the National Security Council (that SOB want to recruit me as a sleeper cells agent and I flatly refuse :mad: ) He stated that there are rumblings especially of junior officers as their promotion had been politicized, too many generals commanding to few troops.

When Duterte left office the AFP was well equip to defend the country from domestic terrorism and insurgency, he is well like cause he doubled the salaries of active duty personnel that the previous and past administration considered as impossible and inflationary. He delivered from his campaign promise and show that there is MONEY available IF a gov't is not corrupt with a leader who has strong political will.

And also he show empathy with ordinary troops, visiting the wounded and attending the wake of every soldiers that died while performing their duty. (previous presidents and Marcos doesn't see the need to do so) He also abolished corruption inside the logistic department by shaming those official publicly for the delaying the release of fund, all of these action endeared himself with the military.

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2018 doubles the base pay of a Police Officer (PO) I in the Philippine National Police or a Private in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and ...

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Jan 9, 2018 — The doubling of salaries of soldiers and police was among Duterte's major campaign promises when he ran for president in 2016. The increase ...

The Airforce received Shiny new toys like the Sikorsky S70i black hawk had been purchase not the second hand Huey that breaks down a lot, T129 ATAK our first modern gunship, and fighter aircraft. ( Before PAF (Philippine Air Force) is known as more Air than Force) new ship for the Navy, The Army had been boosted by more firepower through acquisition of brand new artillery and Armor, logistically the troops can be sustainable supply for long duration in the field, preventing casualties from ambushed as BEFORE the troop need to go back to barracks for resupply.

So I hope this answer your question about the Extent of loyalty he inspired which is massive inside the 3 major services in the AFP.
So you mean that Duterte could probably pull off a coup against Marcos if he wants to?

If only Duterte can stay in the presidency for a 2nd term...
 

ansy1968

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So you mean that Duterte could probably pull off a coup against Marcos if he wants to?
He can and he will but NOT until he see an immediate arm escalation happening, his talk with Xi is to established a line of communication to prevent such eventuality. You see Duterte is a lawyer, he will follow the constitution unless their is a grave national threat. His slogan during the war on drugs amplify his thinking "If you Destroy My Country I will Kill You"
If only Duterte can stay in the presidency for a 2nd term...
He is a constitutionalist, he can do it if he want too BUT why tarnish his legacy and become a tyrant cause for sure there will opposition and he may used force to maintain his rule. Beside he is too old for the job and he can wield more power behind the scene as a king maker. He will used that political influence in 2025 election and you will see a lot of political butterfly change color and kowtow to him.
 
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ansy1968

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No. From what I have read, Philippines military (or at least the high brass) is controlled/heavily-influenced by the US
They were trained in the US, some studied there, before Duterte time the Military function on a subsistence level budget, corruption is so ripe and most of their equipment are US hand me down from FMS (we look exactly like a US army in the 60's). When you are in field and you get wounded chances are you may die before being evacuated, MEDEVAC using refurbished Huey killed more men than the NPA and other Muslim insurgent as they crashed more often. The military high brass use the military to enriched themselves and a gateway to entered politics, its a way for social mobility in an oligarch society. While some junior officer make use of it to gain an American Green Card.

Its the Official policy of the US to make our military weak , (so they can justify their military presence here) they won't even sell us the latest rifle for self defense, in fact we already paid for it BUT some American senator withhold its deliver because the Philippine doesn't comply with their bidding. So yeah that's the main leverage the American had on us, we need to purchase arms from other country to free ourself from relying to much on the US for our National defense.

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Oct 31, 2016 — The U.S. State Department halted the planned sale of some 26000 assault rifles to the Philippines' national police after Senator Ben Cardin ...
 
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