China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Are you also that convinced that America will fight and shed blood for the Philippines against China and China will simply have to give in for the above reason(s) you mentioned, namely in the interest of self-preservation and statusquo? But is China inviting further provocative actions from the Philippines and other competing claimants if it appears caving in to the assertive tactics that PH is currently employing? Who's going to say that China's weak willed response against the Philippines will not further invite an even bigger dilemma via the Taiwan scenario?

What I am saying is that China is in a bit of an awkward situation right now. Fight and risk a total war, or TEMPORARILY take a relatively passive stance but strike back later when the US is caught off guard (such as being sucked into a Middle East war). And if the US happen to be not in a position to intervene, strike your foe so hard and humiliate them so badly that they don't forget (think what China did to Vietnam in 1988 in the Spratleys, when the USSR was not in a position to intervene due to domestic politics).

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Unfortunately these are the richest people in China, and they self-interests just happen to conflict with those of the general interests AND those of the Party in China. But they are loud and have political economic connections with elites in the West. So it is kind of a headache for the Party, whilst the Party simply cannot get to rid of them due to economic needs. And of course, the reason these Zhi Rens are so loud in calling for "democratic reforms" is because they don't think the CCP has spend enough effort to preserve their privileges and property rights. They don't want to commit to any corporate social responsibilities, so they would rather side with China's enemies in order to preserve their privileges.

I for one am sick of being led by the interests of the minority, while it's the majority that suffers through turbulence, death, misery, and destruction. Not to mention the bulk of military service members that will die and serve for a country wants to be destroyed by the moneyed elite, and to be led by the moneyed elite from destruction.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

China isn't afraid of a war with US. What did US gain by sending Pelosi to meet with Chinese separatists when they proved incapable of mounting any response to constant new Chinese military patrols for over a year now?

As long as China's slowdown isn't putting US on track to catch up, they're not gonna be worried in the least.

Now, more than ever, China stands in a position of strength over America, not least due to being able to hold the threat of military intervention in the western front against them.

In the SCS, while China is in no rush to settle disputes by force, they've also had a history of never retreating from any holdings. If Philippines can manage to scrounge up one of their few frigates or gunboats and send it at a PLA outpost, it is likely to end in the PH vessel being sunk or towed away, depending on whether they put up resistance or not.

Since US has a history of not mounting an effective response in Asia, China has little reason to consider them part of the calculus. US has even avoided answering Marcos' call to help them resupply their scrap outpost. There is just no indications America would risk further damage to itself by helping such an obviously weak actor.

What you have stated would be the ideal situation for China regarding SCS. But you can never discount any possibility of US intervention, unless of course the US is already deeply involved in another part of the world.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

But these same rich ultra elites are going to beg for mercy if the common folk is unleashed upon them, especially if China finds itself under extreme duress due to the self-inflicted wound and sabotage committed by these self-interest moneyed groups. If history is any guide, there's still a lot of Chinese people old and young that remember how it was like for China to suffer a devastating loss against other countries. Who's going to save those leeches skin? AMERICANS?

Where do you get your impression that the majority of elites dislike the party and would rather Institute the western style system (so that the elites can control the government and policies). If that's the case, then China ought to just stop pretending and give up, surrender to the almighty U.S. so we can all avoid going through the pretentions that Taiwan is important to China and just simply ask the U.S. to make China another vassal.

Call it capitalism 101. The US does have more effective laws protecting the properties rich and powerful than China, so these Chinese "liberal" elites would rather side with the US. And it is hard for go after them as well due to 1.) they are well embedded within China's financial (including state-owned banks) and real-estate sector (thank God they are not that connected with China's military industrial complex) 2.) they can simply run if the Party cracks down against them since these folks already have permanent residences in Anglo countries, so they could simply run (润学) 3.) they have well-establish connections with local and possibly even central government agencies through bribes and other corruption practices, so should Xi order a crackdown, some well-bribed officials within the bureaucracy would simply allow them to run (again, 润) . The fact that they could simply run to the west make it hard for the Party to even tax them, not to mention cracking down and arresting them. And of course, they oppose Xi because his administration's current industrial policies would allow semiconductor manufacturers, defense industries, and other high-tech manufacturing to become the new elites close aligned with the Party-State, which would diminish the privileges of these old pro-West liberal elites (again, mostly in the property and financial/banking sectors, as well as some pro-West media outlets). Many of these Zhi Rens were the first generation of post-1978 successful entrepreneurs (including families of CCP leaders), except their own interests no longer align with the development need and national security of the state.

 

[Biscuits]

What you have stated would be the ideal situation for China regarding SCS. But you can never discount any possibility of US intervention, unless of course the US is already deeply involved in another part of the world.

Well, no. I was talking about if PH does an attack on Chinese outposts, which would be unprecedented, and something which US doesn't have the power to back them with. But otherwise, China would remain restrained in terms of dislodging PH outposts, so hardly an ideal situation.

How would US intervene? At most by spectating what the PLA is doing and then maybe drafting a list with 20 PLA officers and saying these people are banned from vacation in America lol

US showed before that they aren't gonna open fire first. And China isn't going to fire on them either.

There has been tons of encounters, and so far not even a single documented incident of an US platform locking on to a PLA one (despite a few incidents of the reverse happening). Without sending their whole military to Asia first, US lacks the punch to enter a conflict there.

If US is coming, we would see large scale preparations similar to the ones we saw in Russia during early 2022.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Well, no. I was talking about if PH does an attack on Chinese outposts, which would be unprecedented, and something which US doesn't have the power to back them with. But otherwise, China would remain restrained in terms of dislodging PH outposts, so hardly an ideal situation.

How would US intervene? At most by spectating what the PLA is doing and then maybe drafting a list with 20 PLA officers and saying these people are banned from vacation in America lol

US showed before that they aren't gonna open fire first. And China isn't going to fire on them either.

There has been tons of encounters, and so far not even a single documented incident of an US platform locking on to a PLA one (despite a few incidents of the reverse happening). Without sending their whole military to Asia first, US lacks the punch to enter a conflict there.

If US is coming, we would see large scale preparations similar to the ones we saw in Russia during early 2022.

True, but the US is also playing a game of tripwire. That’s why they are conducting FONOPS in a near weekly basis, whilst try to have at least one carrier battle group (ideally two) deployed in the region. One could argue that should China decide to strike, these CGs would be decimated by ASBMs. However, I think one should not underestimate how much defence planners in the US doubt CCP’s resolve. Many in Washington still believe that regardless how modernised the PLA has become, the CCP would not dare to start a war with the US, so the game of tripwire and salami slicing works so long as the PLA does not bite. And PH’s recent provocations in Huangyan/Scarborough demonstrate exactly such questioning of the PLA’s resolve and believe that China is so bogged down by its own economic ills and domestic social contradictions that Beijing is a paper tiger so long as the US does not try to directly overthrown the Party’s rule. This is also why Biden is even more aggressive than Trump and his team when dealing with China.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

True, but the US is also playing a game of tripwire. That’s why they are conducting FONOPS in a near weekly basis, whilst try to have at least one carrier battle group (ideally two) deployed in the region. One could argue that should China decide to strike, these CGs would be decimated by ASBMs. However, I think one should not underestimate how much defence planners in the US doubt CCP’s resolve. Many in Washington still believe that regardless how modernised the PLA has become, the CCP would not dare to start a war with the US, so the game of tripwire and salami slicing works so long as the PLA does not bite. And PH’s recent provocations in Huangyan/Scarborough demonstrate exactly such questioning of the PLA’s resolve and believe that China is so bogged down by its own economic ills and domestic social contradictions that Beijing is a paper tiger so long as the US does not try to directly overthrown the Party’s rule. This is also why Biden is even more aggressive than Trump and his team when dealing with China.

When did such line of thinking became so apparent like it has become the gospel truth? Economic ills? Social contradictions? Since when have those conditions didn't exist in China? Who's feeding the supposed experts such b.s. because that's quite dangerous since it's trying to suggest that CPC is utterly corrupt organization not to mention money hungry that its all practically they care about now, while they simply pay lip service to grandiose rhetoric to placate those poor Chinese saps.

 

[Dolcevita]

The Marco Administration has clearly mounted an offensive to "retake" the Scarborough/Huangyan Island. And the US has pledged to intervene (akin to Biden pledging to defend Taiwan, breaking previous ambiguity). I wonder if there are ways for the China Coast Guard to prevent both Filipino government and fishing vessels from getting close to Scarborough/Huangyan WITHOUT drawing blood, which could again risk a war with the US. For example, what do you do when a Filipino fishing vessel managed to get its way into Huangyan's lagoon? Do you shoot and sink them (and prepare for a US response), try to run over them (also risk a US response), or do you simply accept a new normal when Filipino vessels could easily go in and out without any consequences?

China Coast Guard administers the entrance to the lagoon and its' surrounding. Even if a small Filipino fishing vessel managed to get in, it still needs to pass by the CSG administered entrance/exit to leave. Even if the small fishing boat refuse to leave, how long can a small fishing vessel survive in the such harsh environment (heat, no access to drinking water, typhoon, etc) ?

Other than the current posturing, there is nothing the PH goverment can do except for aggressive albeit suicidal actions.

 

[Biscuits]

True, but the US is also playing a game of tripwire. That’s why they are conducting FONOPS in a near weekly basis, whilst try to have at least one carrier battle group (ideally two) deployed in the region. One could argue that should China decide to strike, these CGs would be decimated by ASBMs. However, I think one should not underestimate how much defence planners in the US doubt CCP’s resolve. Many in Washington still believe that regardless how modernised the PLA has become, the CCP would not dare to start a war with the US, so the game of tripwire and salami slicing works so long as the PLA does not bite. And PH’s recent provocations in Huangyan/Scarborough demonstrate exactly such questioning of the PLA’s resolve and believe that China is so bogged down by its own economic ills and domestic social contradictions that Beijing is a paper tiger so long as the US does not try to directly overthrown the Party’s rule. This is also why Biden is even more aggressive than Trump and his team when dealing with China.

Perhaps that's what they think behind closed doors, but if so, they've shown awfully little signs of putting those thoughts to the test.

Sailing a ship under the right of innocent passage close to Chinese outposts achieve nothing. Like said above, China never had one of its outposts challenged by anyone, nor a reason to retreat from any new builds. And that doesn't seem to change any time soon, especially when there's no prep for war on US side.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

Perhaps that's what they think behind closed doors, but if so, they've shown awfully little signs of putting those thoughts to the test.

Sailing a ship under the right of innocent passage close to Chinese outposts achieve nothing. Like said above, China never had one of its outposts challenged by anyone, nor a reason to retreat from any new builds. And that doesn't seem to change any time soon, especially when there's no prep for war on US side.

The FONOPS do not take away China’s administrative rights, but they do deny China’s legal sovereignty rights so long as those ships continue to sail within 12nm. I wonder if China starts building an outpost in Huangyan, could that strengthen China’s permanent presence. Doesn’t have to be another Fiery Cross or Subi, but something akin to a radar station on solid cement foundations with CIWS.