China's SCS Strategy Thread

[TK3600]

I think China is waiting for the US to make a bigger mistake before escalating. China is probably waiting for a Pelosi-visits-Taiwan type of event--some act from the US that is so confrontational that China can escalate freely in response without pushing away neutral countries.

Indeed, now is not the time. But knowing the power balance at play, the opportunity is getting more lenient. If US recommit to Middle East, China may activate this card for a free hit on US at any time. The trick is to choose the most inopportune time for US.

 

[ansy1968]

I think China is waiting for the US to make a bigger mistake before escalating. China is probably waiting for a Pelosi-visits-Taiwan type of event--some act from the US that is so confrontational that China can escalate freely in response without pushing away neutral countries.

I'm not a Chinese expert BUT it is obvious that China want a peaceful resolution, its their neighborhood and these pestering problem should be solve ASAP, it takes two to agree and the Philippine should know that they are a sovereign country NOT a US state.

From a position of strength the Chinese had the upper hand, the SCS is a Chinese lake, it will become a pond in the near future as the they push out to the second Island chain within the next 5 years. They are arming massively which the US will find hard to compete even including her vassals. This arm race is favorable to China and IF the Problem in Ukraine and Israel persist, it will be too late for the American to pursue its war strategy in 2025, that is the inflection point after that going forward it will be harder and maybe impossible to pursue such strategy.

The Chinese usually don't talk they act, they are working to limit their vulnerability such as,

1) Malacca conundrum, they solved it with BRI and rapprochement with Russia.

2) Semiconductor, a local solution will be in place by 2025

3) SCS, duly contain with those artificial Island

4) de dollarization by pushing YUAN as an alternative.

5) Massive Arm race

6) the Dual Circulation strategy is having its effect, as the Collective West stumble making the Economic transition more smoothly.

All of this will be done by 2025, so they are prepare for any possible outcome.

 

[Wrought]

I don't think that CCG should or will escalate. I don't think they need to.

Sources in Manila say food and water is not the only thing the Philippines has been taking out to the Sierra Madre on resupply runs. They say it has quietly been shipping construction materials, including cement and scaffolding. The aim: to shore up the rusting ship.

"It's very hard to see how they could extend the life of the ship," Col Powell says. "I think we're coming to a crisis point. The end is near for the Sierra Madre. It could break up very soon."

Perhaps it is this new sense of urgency that is pushing both Manila and Beijing to greater assertiveness. The Philippines is desperate to cling to its presence on Ayungen Shoal. And Beijing is once again reiterating its power, determined that the Sierra Madre will not survive.

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If the Philippines wants to push the issue to save their outpost, then all CCG has to do is keep blocking them physically or maybe use a water cannon. Obviously it's important to patrol and make sure the resupply attempts are always outmatched, so the Philippines doesn't have any opportunity to escalate. We've already seen in the past that blocking/ramming/water cannon produces complaints but no real action from US. So the best course of action is to simply continue on as normal. No drama, no crisis, just another day on the job. And the job will be finished.

 

[Temstar]

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I think the US is taking the bait here. The more they make noise about "US will defend Philippines" the more shocking it will seem if they don't follow it up with action ala 2016. And given that US have said Diaoyu Islands are under article 5 protection but haven't done anything about nearly 365 days a year CCG patrol around there I'm not convinced US will do something in SCS, particularly now of all time.

And if by chance they do, then as others have said that's just opening the door for another Nancy Pelosi situation where PLA will take advantage of the situation for unusually thick salami slicing.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

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I think the US is taking the bait here. The more they make noise about "US will defend Philippines" the more shocking it will seem if they don't follow it up with action ala 2016. And given that US have said Diaoyu Islands are under article 5 protection but haven't done anything about nearly 365 days a year CCG patrol around there I'm not convinced US will do something in SCS, particularly now of all time.

And if by chance they do, then as others have said that's just opening the door for another Nancy Pelosi situation where PLA will take advantage of the situation for unusually thick salami slicing.

Doesn't the article say 'against any armed attack'.

And wouldn't that then leave room for them to interpret what 'armed attack' mean?

 

[Dolcevita]

Do we know the current state or have any recent pictures of the Sierra Madre,
This is a photo of the Sierra Madre in 2014.

Imagine what kind of wreck it is today. What is the media hiding?

Why don't we have any more recent picture ? China knows and does not want to tell.

 

[plawolf]

Do we know the current state or have any recent pictures of the Sierra Madre,
This is a photo of the Sierra Madre in 2014.

Imagine what kind of wreck it is today. What is the media hiding?

Why don't we have any more recent picture ? China knows and does not want to tell.


View attachment 120534

The ship is just a rusting shell now. The Philippines have been effectively building a mini-base inside the ship, and that is what is keeping the thing in place and in one piece. Otherwise storms would have smashed it to pieced and washed it away long ago.

This is also why China is taking a firm stand on interdicting building materials being sent to the ship to stop the Philippines from further base building. But with the building always done, that hulk will stay in place for potentially decades more unless a massive storm hits it.

 

[ansy1968]

The ship is just a rusting shell now. The Philippines have been effectively building a mini-base inside the ship, and that is what is keeping the thing in place and in one piece. Otherwise storms would have smashed it to pieced and washed it away long ago.

This is also why China is taking a firm stand on interdicting building materials being sent to the ship to stop the Philippines from further base building. But with the building always done, that hulk will stay in place for potentially decades more unless a massive storm hits it.

Sir the building material are for crew comfort, I'm not kidding when I said that major repair is being done on plumbing. It will damage morale when the personnel are living in misery. There is NO stable electricity, the generator can't operate 24 hours a day and what can they do to entertain themselves? I'm thinking when this soldiers return home after their rotation more likely they will become gay and leave the organization.

 

[plawolf]

Sir the building material are for crew comfort, I'm not kidding when I said that major repair is being done on plumbing. It will damage morale when the personnel are living in misery. There is NO stable electricity, the generator can't operate 24 hours a day and what can they do to entertain themselves? I'm thinking when this soldiers return home after their rotation more likely they will become gay and leave the organization.

I am afraid I doubt the Philippines’ official story. If they cared so much for the welfare of their soldiers, they would not send them to such an awful posting.

At the end of the day, pipes you say are needed for plumbing can just as easily be used as scaffolding to help secure the rushing shell of the ship.

China didn’t try to stop shipments of rations and other provisions for the garrison. If they were so cruel, this whole thing would have ended a long long time ago and that ship would be a tomb.

 

[TK3600]

The ship is just a rusting shell now. The Philippines have been effectively building a mini-base inside the ship, and that is what is keeping the thing in place and in one piece. Otherwise storms would have smashed it to pieced and washed it away long ago.

This is also why China is taking a firm stand on interdicting building materials being sent to the ship to stop the Philippines from further base building. But with the building always done, that hulk will stay in place for potentially decades more unless a massive storm hits it.

This is why I criticize the wait policy of China. These ship while rusting, can survive indefinitely as long as no natural disaster hit it. It is an absolute clown fest.

Why don't China slam a ship into Guam and claim as theirs? No country should tolerate this kind of aggressive behavior. Policy made sense in the "hide military might build economic strength" phase. Right now AESAN is China aligned economically. US has no spare military might to challenge China in the region. There is no risk to escalate.