China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

So far I haven't seen China cut funding or projects to the Philippines, that said of course China probably won't help Philippines develop EV supply chain anytime soon.

They have, major railway project had been abandon, these critical infrastructure is vital to revitalized our countryside.

Among those project cancels are

1) Mindanao railway project

2) Subic to Clark railway project

3) Southern Luzon Railway project.

4) North Luzon Railway project.

Most Filipino political elite shrug off the cancellation thinking that the Japanese will come and build it for them BUT the Japanese will not undertake such risky investment with limited return, they're in for profit and want their commercial investment paid by the state.

The Jakarta Bandung HSR is being ignored here by our local media, you can sense the frustration and Jealousy, the First HSR in ASEAN build in 6 years while the Japanese funded Manila -Clark railway project with the same distance will be partially open in 2024 with full operation expected in 2026.

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2 days ago — Malacañang has ordered the abolition of the North Luzon Railways Corp., the state-run firm mandated to operate and manage a railway project ...

 

[coolgod]

They have, major railway project had been abandon, these critical infrastructure is vital to revitalized our countryside.

Among those project cancels are

1) Mindanao railway project

2) Subic to Clark railway project

3) Southern Luzon Railway project.

Most Filipino political elite shrug off the cancellation thinking that the Japanese will come and build it for them BUT the Japanese will not undertake such risky investment with limited return, they're in for profit and want their commercial investment paid by the state.

Were they cancelled by the Chinese side or Filipino side?
From the interview of Philippine ambassador to China, it seemed like Filipino government doesn't seem very interested in some of the BRI projects.

 

[ansy1968]

Were they cancelled by the Chinese side or Filipino side?
From the interview of Philippine ambassador to China, it seemed like Filipino government doesn't seem very interested in some of the BRI projects.

Of course they have to say that, they're weren't invited.... Lol The Chinese side is the one who withhold the loan sensing that the next administration is very Pro American, they know that Marcos is compromise and his priorities is to maintain their hidden wealth and save his family name. Only the American can do that for him nobody else.

 

[Wrought]

But again it depends on China's guts. National interest of China is to advance its economic, military and comprehensive power. Staying meek and ignoring provocations could be interpreted as following China's national interest. Xi Jinping is certainly no coward. But he is also very cautious and only takes action when things get too bad. Look at Hong Kong or his Covid reopening. He waited until things got too bad and blew up and then took action. Its hard to see Xi directly challenging the US in the SCS by going violent against the Philippines.

I know some folks, especially younger ones, who criticize the leadership for being too cautious and conservative. I think that is ridiculous, this is not some videogame where you can go back and replay over and over when you fail. When you only get one chance, it is perfect logic to maximize your probability of success. Go read your histories. Many wars were lost because of empty pride. How many were won?

 

[ansy1968]

I know some folks, especially younger ones, who criticize the leadership for being too cautious and conservative. I think that is ridiculous, this is not some videogame where you can go back and replay over and over when you fail. When you only get one chance, it is perfect logic to maximize your probability of success. Go read your histories. Many wars were lost because of empty pride. How many were won?

It was the same here in 2012 when the Scarborough stand off happened, the emotion and hysteria was falsely manufacture to hide the embarrassment of losing the shoal.

Ten years later, there is a rethink, what have we gain from Pinoy misadventure? It doesn't help that he is incompetent, the worst performing president ever which we had in plentiful. That's why this current SCS crisis doesn't generate the same emotional and hysterical reaction, we had seen it before and we know the outcome, this recurring theme is getting boring, anytime the Marcos administration encounter some difficulties expect this issue to resurface again and again.

 

[TK3600]

We need to understand why US want to escalate in the SCS, namely Scarborough Shoals. There are two goals, and they must both achieve at once. Failing one and whole plan falls apart.

1. Assert that China is the threat, and everyone is in danger.
2. Assert that US can protect against this China threat.

If both goals are met, US can gain sweeping influence and block off Chinese influence in AESAN. Failing one goal will not lead to desirable result. Right now goal 1 is unmet. China has shown remarkable restraint against these provocation which most country would not have tolerated. Goal 2 is also unmet since the SCS artificial island incidence. US backed off despite seemingly superior fleet. The island now serves as a powerful base making future confrontation disadvantageous for US. Vietnam sees goal 2 as unmet, so even if they do see China as threat there will be no point leaning toward US. US escalation in SCS backfired in 2016. If China is seen as a threat, and US is incapable of protection, it cements China as the local hegemon. A worse outcome than if US never stirred trouble in first place.

By same logic, China can escalate in SCS for its benefit. If China escalate at a time US cannot assert itself as the protector, tension actually drops. As a bonus, damaging US credibility destabilize its influence in other regions like middle east. Standing off with US and force them to back provides more benefits than simply reclaim the rock after typhoon drag ship away.

US getting stuck in 2 proxy war is an ideal scenario. Depending on the political goals, China could use this to manipulate US election to its benefit. Due to the 2 above benefits, China should consider proactively escalating. The rock itself is actually less important.

 

[ansy1968]

We need to understand why US want to escalate in the SCS, namely Scarborough Shoals. There are two goals, and they must both achieve at once. Failing one and whole plan falls apart.

1. Assert that China is the threat, and everyone is in danger.
2. Assert that US can protect against this China threat.

If both goals are met, US can gain sweeping influence and block off Chinese influence in AESAN. Failing one goal will not lead to desirable result. Right now goal 1 is unmet. China has shown remarkable restraint against these provocation which most country would not have tolerated. Goal 2 is also unmet since the SCS artificial island incidence. US backed off despite seemingly superior fleet. The island now serves as a powerful base making future confrontation disadvantageous for US. Vietnam sees goal 2 as unmet, so even if they do see China as threat there will be no point leaning toward US. It actually backfired. If China is seen as a threat, and US is incapable of protection, it cements China as the local hegemon. A worse outcome than if US never stirred trouble in first place.

By same logic, China can escalate in SCS for its benefit. If China escalate at a time US cannot assert itself as the protector, tension actually drops. As a bonus, damaging US credibility destabilize its influence in other regions like middle east. Standing off with US and force them to back provides more benefits than simply reclaim the rock after typhoon drag it away.

US getting stuck in 2 proxy war is an ideal scenario. Depending on the political goals, China could use this to manipulate US election to its benefit. Due to the 2 above benefits, China should consider proactively escalating.

If you can't implement your redline then nobody will take you seriously, China had repeated state their policy, they want a SCS Code of Conduct agreement between the parties NOT an outside interloper. IF Marcos want to bring the US to strengthen his hand in negotiating then he is an idiot, instead the Chinese will rather wait for the next Administration in 2028 than to deal with him.

 

[coolgod]

If you can't implement your redline then nobody will take you seriously, China had repeated state their policy, they want a SCS Code of Conduct agreement between the parties NOT an outside interloper. IF Marcos want to bring the US to strengthen his hand in negotiating then he is an idiot, instead the Chinese will rather wait for the next Administration in 2028 than to deal with him.

I don't think China will put up with Marco's nonsense until 2028.

 

[ansy1968]

I don't think China will put up with Marco's nonsense until 2028.

He had soured his reputation and for me from now on he is a lamed duck president, one of the worst comparable to Pinoy. These two family is a curse to our country, BOTH of them should never allowed to rule this country again.

 

[Moonscape]

By same logic, China can escalate in SCS for its benefit. If China escalate at a time US cannot assert itself as the protector, tension actually drops. As a bonus, damaging US credibility destabilize its influence in other regions like middle east. Standing off with US and force them to back provides more benefits than simply reclaim the rock after typhoon drag ship away.

US getting stuck in 2 proxy war is an ideal scenario. Depending on the political goals, China could use this to manipulate US election to its benefit. Due to the 2 above benefits, China should consider proactively escalating. The rock itself is actually less important.

I think China is waiting for the US to make a bigger mistake before escalating. China is probably waiting for a Pelosi-visits-Taiwan type of event--some act from the US that is so confrontational that China can escalate freely in response without pushing away neutral countries.