China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

You see normally I share your opinion. This time US is committed to Israel, even at cost of Ukraine. I know US will not come helping. That is why China should provoke Philipine on purpose to discredit US. When it ignores Philipine it will send another shock to its allies in Asia Pacifics. Their overlord cannot gaurantee its safety, and they must seek back up plan.

Well as a friend I advise caution, like @Wrought had posted it's a trap, that dilapidated ship will be inhabitable especially if a major typhoon pass by, time is on China side, what you recommend will only justify the China threat narrative so why give them the satisfaction,
also on a personal note we Hua Qiao will bear the brunt of any backlash and you may see me among those boat people being displace.

 

[Wrought]

Of course, the Philippines knows that the current situation is not good for them. They might become desperate enough to try something foolish.

One flash point that could set off a major crisis is an atoll in the contested Spratly Islands, about 100 miles off the Philippine coast and 900 miles from mainland China. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally ran a World War II-era ship aground on the Second Thomas Shoal and has used the vessel since then as a military outpost.

Pro-China commentators say Beijing will not allow the Philippines to build a structure on the atoll, as some Philippine lawmakers have proposed. Malaya, the national security official, declined to say what the government has in mind for the grounded vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, but stressed that the administration has been refining a government-wide plan to deter China.

Would it work? He paused. “We don’t really know.”

“What we do know,” Malaya added, “is we don’t want to just accept this behavior.”

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Which is why I am in favor of slow and steady pressure, because it's clearly working. Build up forces, make small advancements, control the escalation, and wait for a mistake. The best position is where every move available to the opponent is a mistake. Maybe nothing will happen, but if there is a crisis, it's better that they start it. And who knows, such an incident might provide the opportunity to remove the Sierra Madre.

 

[Temstar]

Something happened, Philippine seems to have a great urgency in getting repairing supplies to the ship:

CCG said they intercepted military ship trying to send building material to the landing ship. Furthermore this doesn't seem to be just blocking and water cannon but some ramming may have taken place:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715934642778558925

 

[TK3600]

Well as a friend I advise caution, like @Wrought had posted it's a trap, that dilapidated ship will be inhabitable especially if a major typhoon pass by, time is on China side, what you recommend will only justify the China threat narrative so why give them the satisfaction,
also on a personal note we Hua Qiao will bear the brunt of any backlash and you may see me among those boat people being displace.

China holds escalatory dominance. They will whine but give up. Any escalation is a trap.

As for relationships, sometimes shorter pain is better than longer pain. The longer the dispute, the more it is a talking point. Finishing it actually solves the tension, like Vietnam and China. If China never attacked, Vietnam will still be hostile to China today.

So in my strategy, patience is just as important. It is important to wait for a chance to inflict maximum embarassment to US while having lowest chance of escalation. Sending the message of American impotence is as important than the island itself. That time will come very soon.

 

[TK3600]

Something happened, Philippine seems to have a great urgency in getting repairing supplies to the ship:
View attachment 120430
CCG said they intercepted military ship trying to send building material to the landing ship. Furthermore this doesn't seem to be just blocking and water cannon but some ramming may have taken place:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715934642778558925

Aha, speaking of chance for easy escalation. I suggest salt water cannon the beached ship too to accelerate the rust.

The strategy of waiting made sense at the time. Chinese navy was weaker, and US was trying to start an international incidence. Ukraine and Israel rank far higher for American attention right now. This is a rare chance the original planner did not account for.

 

[ansy1968]

Something happened, Philippine seems to have a great urgency in getting repairing supplies to the ship:
View attachment 120430
CCG said they intercepted military ship trying to send building material to the landing ship. Further more this doesn't seem to be just blocking and water cannon but some ramming may have taken place:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715934642778558925

My take, the Philippine gov't try to get the American attention, as they see that the US are drifting toward the Middle East. The Marcos administration had followed the US containment policy and had nothing to show for it. We had seen Thailand and Indonesia been invited to China BRI and the benefits they get, so we asked what about us. During Duterte administration the Chinese provide tangible investment and assistance not pledges and promises.

To deflect the criticism about Marcos incompetent handling of our economy, they have to find a scapegoat BUT the SCS issue is being used so often that it become a non issue to us anymore.

 

[TK3600]

My take, the Philippine gov't try to get the American attention, as they see that the US are drifting toward the Middle East. The Marcos administration had followed the US containment policy and had nothing to show for it. We had seen Thailand and Indonesia been invited to China BRI and the benefits they get, so we asked what about us. During Duterte administration the Chinese provide tangible investment and assistance not pledges and promises.

That will be immensely stupid. This is the single worst time to call US right now. Israel de facto controls US, even Ukraine had to stand aside.

Israel > Ukraine > Taiwan >>> Philipine

 

[coolgod]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715231539582427496

My post earlier quoting the SCSPI tweet warned about the Philippines resupplying the broken ship. SCSPI being a Chinese think tank isn't the type to troll twitter.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715926803007905879

Video of collision from Chinese side.
Pinoy jesters at it again

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715946158399590463

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715268937334902830

BTW Reagan CSG was nearby

 

[Wrought]

No injuries reported, sounds like low-speed collisions. Evidently the Philippines is trying to repair the Sierra Madre.

No injuries were reported in either collision Sunday, which marks the latest in a series of recent flashpoints between Beijing and Manila in the disputed waterway.

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I have to admit being confused that the Philippines are sticking to their usual supply runs. I assumed they would wait for a bit and try with a larger group plus US escort or something, raise the stakes, that sort of thing. So long as they keep using small boats it seems trivial for CCG to block enough shipments that construction efforts will never go anywhere. But the situation is still developing, who knows what will happen.

 

[Overbom]

That's perfect timing.
US is engaged in Ukraine, Israel. Will it also engage in Philippines and SCS situation lmao.
Will it abandon its favourite Israel for its disposable pawn, Philippines..

Marcos wanted to draw American attention back to his country, but little does he know that Israel's position in US is infinitely times higher than Philippines'