China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Nutrient]

I think China made some serious mistakes when it antagonize almost all of the country in it's periphery with regards to SCS. China should have been more diplomatic. Perhaps the US will find it harder to maneuver if China is more sophisticated in diplomacy with said countries as China is already the biggest of one of the biggest trading partner to those countries.

The US was mostly responsible for stirring up the SCS. There were problems between China and some of the other countries, but the negotiations were small and quiet. Then the US chose to magnify the minor disputes into major confrontations, and we see the results today.

I doubt there was anything China could do other than building up its defensive power. As @manqiangrexue said, if China made any concessions, the US would decide to push for more and more. The US would continue to press its advantage until China gave up totally. A capitulation by the Middle Kingdom would not be wise in an area as nearby and strategic as the SCS.

 

[Nutrient]

[deleted, accidental double post]

 

[davidau]

The US was mostly responsible for stirring up the SCS. There were problems between China and some of the other countries, but the negotiations were small and quiet. Then the US chose to magnify the minor disputes into major confrontations, and we see the results today.

I doubt there was anything China could do other than building up its defensive power. As @manqiangrexue said, if China made any concessions, the US would decide to push for more and more. The US would continue to press its advantage until China gave up totally. A capitulation by the Middle Kingdom would not be wise in an area as nearby and strategic as the SCS.

China is now is not the same as in the weak Qing dynasty. Both militarily and econoically, China is strong. China is not an easy pushover as envisioned by US and the West. China has declared: we don't create troubles, but we are not afraid of troubles.

 

[voyager1]

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The Philippines’ air force has been conducting daily aerial patrols over Chinese fishing vessels parked near a disputed reef, the country’s defence chief said, as he repeated a call to Beijing for their withdrawal from their area.

Things are getting spicy.

The diplomatic row was touched off earlier this month when some 220 boats were first

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at the boomerang-shaped Whitsun Reef, west of Palawan Island.

These ships are definetely not there due to natural causes. 220 boats aligned so close to each other means that this is not a normal fishing operation.

I am at loss why China decided for this action here. Maybe they want to secure the SCS even more and they are planning to build an island on top of the reef?

Or maybe they are trying to bait an accident from Philippine's military (or coast guard) and then to gain some concessions because of it?

Or they are simply sending a signal to the SCS claimants that China now is getting serious with the SCS issue and it will start securing the area there..

Or they are trying to see how the US will come to the aid of Philippines. If it doesn't come (or not in enough force) then China will show to the region there that US can not be depended for security and it is time to complete the ASEAN code of conduct

 

[Sardaukar20]

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Things are getting spicy.


These ships are definetely not there due to natural causes. 220 boats aligned so close to each other means that this is not a normal fishing operation.

I am at loss why China decided for this action here. Maybe they want to secure the SCS even more and they are planning to build an island on top of the reef?

Or maybe they are trying to bait an accident from Philippine's military (or coast guard) and then to gain some concessions because of it?

Or they are simply sending a signal to the SCS claimants that China now is getting serious with the SCS issue and it will start securing the area there..

Or they are trying to see how the US will come to the aid of Philippines. If it doesn't come (or not in enough force) then China will show to the region there that US can not be depended for security and it is time to complete the ASEAN code of conduct

I don't really know what is going on. The way I see it. This is theatrics especially from the Philippines side. There were mechanisms to handle tensions between the two sides. Why are both sides not using it?

Those are Chinese fishing vessels. Not Chinese Naval ships. Why does The Philippines feel the need to fly their FA-50 jets over them? The Chinese side have used at the very worse, Coastguard vessels. If The Philippines wants to intimidate the Chinese vessels. It is not working, and it could get them into serious trouble. Do they wanna invite the PLAN into the game?

The USN won't help. If they did, they would have done something back in 2016. When Aquino was still in power. When the Philippines had just won a phony arbitration. When China was busy building up islands on Phillipine-claimed Islets.

I hope this is nothing more than foolish theatrics from the Philippines military. This is not the time for the Philippines to get into another diplomatic crisis with China.

 

[escobar]

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Things are getting spicy.


These ships are definetely not there due to natural causes. 220 boats aligned so close to each other means that this is not a normal fishing operation.

I am at loss why China decided for this action here. Maybe they want to secure the SCS even more and they are planning to build an island on top of the reef?

Or maybe they are trying to bait an accident from Philippine's military (or coast guard) and then to gain some concessions because of it?

Or they are simply sending a signal to the SCS claimants that China now is getting serious with the SCS issue and it will start securing the area there..

Or they are trying to see how the US will come to the aid of Philippines. If it doesn't come (or not in enough force) then China will show to the region there that US can not be depended for security and it is time to complete the ASEAN code of conduct

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1377080841063387136

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376851503613239297

 

[hashtagpls]

The USN won't help. If they did, they would have done something back in 2016. When Aquino was still in power. When the Philippines had just won a phony arbitration. When China was busy building up islands on Phillipine-claimed Islets.

America today, unlike America circa 2016, is in dire need of a war to distract from troubles at home; the US is on the verge of civil revolt that's why they're pushing so hard for a regional war and abusing their exorbitant privilege of printing dollars-whilst they still have it.

 

[PhSt]

I don't really know what is going on. The way I see it. This is theatrics especially from the Philippines side. There were mechanisms to handle tensions between the two sides. Why are both sides not using it?

You need to understand, Duterte is not in control, elections are coming, and the US is imposing a tremendous amount of pressure on him to make these actions. Duterte can only do so much to resist American pressure but in the end, most politicians and the military are still on America's payroll.

Those are Chinese fishing vessels. Not Chinese Naval ships. Why does The Philippines feel the need to fly their FA-50 jets over them?

America dictates the narratives here, what the Americans are telling the Philippines is that these ships are a type of Militia that has ties to the Chinese navy.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Well seem like they building a rocket base in Hainan

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376329794330128384

 

[BoraTas]

You need to understand, Duterte is not in control, elections are coming, and the US is imposing a tremendous amount of pressure on him to make these actions. Duterte can only do so much to resist American pressure but in the end, most politicians and the military are still on America's payroll.



America dictates the narratives here, what the Americans are telling the Philippines is that these ships are a type of Militia that has ties to the Chinese navy.

I found a lot of Philippino comments advising the sinking of the vessels. LOL. I bet that's what China wants so it can send the PLAN. This why democracy in underdeveloped countries is a terrible idea.