China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Temstar]

My gut feeling is those ships parked near the reefs are a ruse, a trap laid out for someone.

This isn't something that just happened at a low level that central government isn't aware of, this is carefully planned for good reasons. Central government can easily get whoever those ship belongs to to move if they want to, but they are deliberately playing dumb for a reason.

It would be difficult to dislodge that fleet unless you want to sink them all. Given the numbers involved that's actually not so easy and if one really is inclined to use force are you sure you're not walking into a PLA trap?

 

[Temstar]

Three Type 22 stealth missile boats at Mischief Reef.

 

[voyager1]

I found a lot of Philippino comments advising the sinking of the vessels. LOL. I bet that's what China wants so it can send the PLAN. This why democracy in underdeveloped countries is a terrible idea.

Yep. These fools who are saying sink them, dont have a clue about what is happening.

In a previous post I already wrote about some possible reasons why China has orchestrated this situation with the "fishing vessels".

If Philippines is so stupid that it fall into the trap, then the reef is gone, and then the PLAN will constantly patrol there, thus pushing back the front line of Philippines even more than it was now.

However there may be a traitor military man inside Philippines who may throw the reef into China's hands so that the population get angry with China and then a pro-American president will get elected at the next election

 

[PhSt]

I found a lot of Philippino comments advising the sinking of the vessels. LOL. I bet that's what China wants so it can send the PLAN. This why democracy in underdeveloped countries is a terrible idea.

In the Philippines, there is this false impression that the US is invisible and is always there to rescue the PH in the event of a conflict with China. Most people don't care to check facts so little they know that the Americans are only going to use the country as a sort of "Meat shield" in case of a shooting war against China.

However there may be a traitor military man inside Philippines who may throw the reef into China's hands so that the population get angry with China and then a pro-American president will get elected at the next election

Honestly, I don't see any difference in the political direction the PH is heading, whether China formalizes its administration of the reefs or not, the PH leadership is most likely going to be stuffed with anti-Chinese hardliners since the US has decided to double down in its efforts to confront China. This is going to be a similar scenario to what the US did in Ukraine.

Escalation of the current situation may result in two outcomes. if China is successful in its strategy to secure its interests in the south china sea while keeping the US on the sidelines, then it will convince other competitors in the region that they cannot rely on US protection and will be more willing to compromise with China. on the other hand, if the US is hell-bent on starting a war, then they can use the escalation as an excuse to pour more forces into the region.

 

[BoraTas]

In the Philippines, there is this false impression that the US is invisible and is always there to rescue the PH in the event of a conflict with China. Most people don't care to check facts so little they know that the Americans are only going to use the country as a sort of "Meat shield" in case of a shooting war against China.



Honestly, I don't see any difference in the political direction the PH is heading, whether China formalizes its administration of the reefs or not, the PH leadership is most likely going to be stuffed with anti-Chinese hardliners since the US has decided to double down in its efforts to confront China. This is going to be a similar scenario to what the US did in Ukraine.

Escalation of the current situation may result in two outcomes. if China is successful in its strategy to secure its interests in the south china sea while keeping the US on the sidelines, then it will convince other competitors in the region that they cannot rely on US protection and will be more willing to compromise with China. on the other hand, if the US is hell-bent on starting a war, then they can use the escalation as an excuse to pour more forces into the region.

A war between nuclear powers is extremely unlikely. If the Philippines escalates China should escalate too. There two reasons for this.

1- Anglos own the media so China is perceived as the aggressor. Failure to escalate against a country that is only 1/45 of its economic size would create the perception that China is weak. And no, the relations with the Philippines can not be repaired with backing off at this point.
2- SCS is extremely important for China. China should refrain from any moves that would embolden Vietnam, the Philippines, the USA and others.

 

[voyager1]

A war between nuclear powers is extremely unlikely. If the Philippines escalates China should escalate too. There two reasons for this.

1- Anglos own the media so China is perceived as the aggressor. Failure to escalate against a country that is only 1/45 of its economic size would create the perception that China is weak. And no, the relations with the Philippines can not be repaired with backing off at this point.
2- SCS is extremely important for China. China should refrain from any moves that would embolden Vietnam, the Philippines, the USA and others.

Yep. Once the countries in the region smell that China is a "paper tiger" all hell will be let loose.

So in this case, if something happens with the Philippines, China will opens its.mouth and grab everything there so that these people will out grow their colonial mental illness.

And regarding the SCS, China should immediately start building more islands there to establish better control on the SCS. I dont even know why Xi stopped so early on his SCS island building on ~2015. If he had since then kept up the building, then by now the SCS would be an impenetrable fortress for China

 

[vincent]

Yep. Once the countries in the region smell that China is a "paper tiger" all hell will be let loose.

So in this case, if something happens with the Philippines, China will opens its.mouth and grab everything there so that these people will out grow their colonial mental illness.

And regarding the SCS, China should immediately start building more islands there to establish better control on the SCS. I dont even know why Xi stopped so early on his SCS island building on ~2015. If he had since then kept up the building, then by now the SCS would be an impenetrable fortress for China

Money doesn’t grow on trees

 

[voyager1]

Money doesn’t grow on trees

China for sure doesn't lack money (case in point all these dollars reserves and the whole BRI..)

And secondly this is for strategic and national security reasons. If China is not willing to spend a couple billions every year to secure SCS control and China's interests then Xi better take up the phone, call Biden and announces that China formally surrenders. Simple stuff

 

[BoraTas]

Yep. Once the countries in the region smell that China is a "paper tiger" all hell will be let loose.

So in this case, if something happens with the Philippines, China will opens its.mouth and grab everything there so that these people will out grow their colonial mental illness.

And regarding the SCS, China should immediately start building more islands there to establish better control on the SCS. I dont even know why Xi stopped so early on his SCS island building on ~2015. If he had since then kept up the building, then by now the SCS would be an impenetrable fortress for China

I am less aggressive on that. China shouldn't make itself second Russia both for itself and rest of the world. But it definitely needs to escalate if the PH does. A destroyer/frigate squadron would do the job. Even a single modern destroyer is a huge problem for the PH. But if the PH starts subsidizing the USA and sinking the unarmed vessels, then an island with deployed missiles should be built

 

[voyager1]

I am less aggressive on that. China shouldn't make itself second Russia both for itself and rest of the world. But it definitely needs to escalate if the PH does. A destroyer/frigate squadron would do the job. Even a single modern destroyer is a huge problem for the PH.

Russia is a rogue nation.

China on the other hand plays by the "rules". China has deployed these fishing vessels as part of its "grayzone warfare" which means that it tries to gain advantages using civilians without escalating to the military level. Now as part of grayzone warfare rules, the other nation must deal with China using civilian assets. This is a standard game that China is playing and that the rest of countries in the region have recognized it.

Now if Philippines tries to break the rules and escalate with military assets then that means that China must respond in kind and also punish it for not playing the game properly. Because if it doesnt, then the other countries will also not recognise the rules and they will use military assets.

So the punishment on this occasion, if Philippines responded militarily, in my view would be to take exclusive control of the reef, maybe build an island, and have the PLAN patrol it