China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Bellum_Romanum]

I found a lot of Philippino comments advising the sinking of the vessels. LOL. I bet that's what China wants so it can send the PLAN. This why democracy in underdeveloped countries is a terrible idea.

That's the typical mindset of most Filipinos underestimating the imbalance of power between their country to China. Most of the assumptions are based and stem from old data and old perceptions shaped largely by their pro American media that nothing China does or make is of quality. The outbreak of Covid-19 added to this suicidal and idiotic ideas and perceptions of China. Plus, their assumptions that the U.S. (which is their colonial overlords) would defend the country in blood and treasure just like in WWII.

One can't blame the Filipinos for having this line of thinking and arrogance since they have been conditioned or primed to believe the farts emanating from America. America means good, benevolent power, whereas China equals shitty, decrepit, deceitful, and parasitic. It's no surprise that their attitude reflects what they have been told time and again.

 

[BoraTas]

That's the typical mindset of most Filipinos underestimating the imbalance of power between their country to China. Most of the assumptions are based and stem from old data and old perceptions shaped largely by their pro American media that nothing China does or make is of quality. The outbreak of Covid-19 added to this suicidal and idiotic ideas and perceptions of China. Plus, their assumptions that the U.S. (which is their colonial overlords) would defend the country in blood and treasure just like in WWII.

One can't blame the Filipinos for having this line of thinking and arrogance since they have been conditioned or primed to believe the farts emanating from America. America means good, benevolent power, whereas China equals shitty, decrepit, deceitful, and parasitic. It's no surprise that their attitude reflects what they have been told time and again.

The public perception of China often trails 15 years behind reality. I realized this when my interest in China started in 2008-2009. Back then, China was perceived as a nation where most people were living at the subsistence level, which was an outdated view by at least 20 years even then. China was almost middle income. In 2015 when I moved to China for work, the perception was a little better but it was still perceived as a very poor nation but in 2015 it was actually solidly middle income. In the last 5 years, this changed a bit thanks to increased market penetration of Chinese consumer goods but China's current perception is still 2005's China in the USA and countries like the PH. Europe has it better. But even the European view of China is outdated by 10 years. Most Westerners are shocked when they hear only 6% of China's economy is exports to the West.

 

[PhSt]

Russia is a rogue nation.

What is your definition of a rogue nation? a simple internet search says this, "A rogue state otherwise known as an outlaw state, is a term applied by some international theorists to states that they consider threatening to the world's peace."

If Russia's actions in Ukraine and Syria is what earns this designation, then perhaps the US and its NATO allies would overwhelmingly qualify for this designation as well due to their actions in the middle east and other parts of the world.
Also, the countries that love to label Russia as a "rogue nation" are the same countries who bad mouth China. So I don't think its wise to follow along with their narrative about Russia.

On topic, the map clearly shows that Vietnam occupies more features in the Spratlys than China, but somehow media coverage in PH is always focused on China and treats Vietnam as if they are not there lol. The double standards in both PH and Western MSM should be a wake-up call to ordinary Filipinos that the US is not genuinely interested in backing PH's claims in the region and is only using PH as an expendable tool against China.

 

[voyager1]

What is your definition of a rogue nation? a simple internet search says this, "A rogue state otherwise known as an outlaw state, is a term applied by some international theorists to states that they consider threatening to the world's peace."

If Russia's actions in Ukraine and Syria is what earns this designation, then perhaps the US and its NATO allies would overwhelmingly qualify for this designation as well due to their actions in the middle east and other parts of the world.
Also, the countries that love to label Russia as a "rogue nation" are the same countries who bad mouth China. So I don't think its wise to follow along with their narrative about Russia.

On topic, the map clearly shows that Vietnam occupies more features in the Spratlys than China, but somehow media coverage in PH is always focused on China and treats Vietnam as if they are not there lol. The double standards in both PH and Western MSM should be a wake-up call to ordinary Filipinos that the US is not genuinely interested in backing PH's claims in the region and is only using PH as an expendable tool against China.

Rogue was probably too strong of a word. I would rather use crude or more unsophisticated. Their operations are too much on your face, they are too visible when they intervene in contrast with the US which stays undercover (but more dangerous) and is helped by the media of course.

Now in regards to PH and Vietnam I completely agree, there is an obvious agenda on this.
Which is why i am in loss why Xi stopped his island building so early. He should have just continue building these islands. Imagine if he hadn't stopped, now China would be in complete control of the SCS if he had filled the entire region there with small naval bases, airfields, comms etc

I hope that this Philippines move is a signal that China will start its island building again.

 

[voyager1]

Big news if true!
Credit to @escobar

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In moves that haven’t been previously reported, the U.S. has removed at least three Patriot antimissile batteries from the Gulf region, including one from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, that had been put in place in recent years to help protect American forces.

Some capabilities, including an aircraft carrier and surveillance systems, are being diverted from the Middle East to answer military needs elsewhere around the globe, according to U.S. officials. Other reductions are under consideration, officials said.

The US has begun (or already done) removing the permanent aircraft carrier presence from the Middle East to direct it on another region (ahem Indo-Pacific....).

This is very important regarding the military balance on the SCS and it provides an immediate military boost to the US forces there

 

[jimmyjames30x30]

Big news if true!
Credit to @escobar

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The US has begun (or already done) removing the permanent aircraft carrier presence from the Middle East to direct it on another region (ahem Indo-Pacific....).

This is very important regarding the military balance on the SCS and it provides an immediate military boost to the US forces there

I have said again and again, it is EXACTLY in China's strategic interest that US moves more and more of her conventional (naval) assets closer to China. This is because war is all about logistics. China can NOT risk a low-level conventional war/skirmish with the US far away from Chinese mainland.

Imagine if the US starts harassing Chinese crude oil ships in the Red Sea. That would be disastrous. But if the same happens in SCS, the situation would be reversed. Because Chinese mainland is close by, while the US main bases are far away.

In fact, many things regarding grand strategy is actually counter-intuitive.

One thing is that it is commonly believed by common folks that Trump's easing of traditional (Democrat/Establishment) pressure on Russia is bad news for China. While in reality, China would love to see Trump divert pressure from Russia. Because in a dire state, Russia will be a lot more likely to be forced by the US pressure to compromises on the Sino-Russia de-facto alliance. This is would be much more disastrous for China, because this will mean China will have to fight a two front war/confrontation. This would be much much more costly than just to have Businessman Trump throwing out his joke of a so-called "maximum pressure" (it might work in business, but this fool doesn't know anything about real war), which is nothing but gimmicky tricks to intimidate business partners and construction teams made up by Mexican/Latino workers.

In fact, I would say that the Red Sea and Russia (and Central Asia) are the two main weakness for China. If anything bad happened in Red Sea aiming at China, it would be almost forbiddingly costly for China to deal with. If anything happens in Russia (Russia getting Color-Rev'ed, or balkanized), China's entire strategic situation would drastically worsen.

Therefore, and US effort to destroy Iran, and/or Russia, should be seen as precursor to US starting a final war to finish off China. If Iran or Russia got destroyed by the US, China would be pretty much done for. As long as Iran and Russia are still alive, healthy, and friendly towards China, China will persevere.

 

[voyager1]

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The Philippine military said Thursday it has discovered illegally built structures on features in the Union Banks, a series of reefs in the South China Sea near where Manila says Chinese maritime militia boats have been swarming in recent weeks.

Chad move by China

"The Laws of the Sea gives the Philippines indisputable and exclusive rights over the area. These constructions and other activities, economic or otherwise, are prejudicial to peace, good order, and security of our territorial waters," Sobejana said.

Yawn. It seems they still think that the US will enforce their "international law".
Good for China to slap them (again) to remind them who is the big brother in the region

Lets hope China will start again mass island-building

 

[papyrus]

PLAN fleet crossed Miyako Strait went into west pacific yesterday.

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[davidau]

I have said again and again, it is EXACTLY in China's strategic interest that US moves more and more of her conventional (naval) assets closer to China. This is because war is all about logistics. China can NOT risk a low-level conventional war/skirmish with the US far away from Chinese mainland.

Imagine if the US starts harassing Chinese crude oil ships in the Red Sea. That would be disastrous. But if the same happens in SCS, the situation would be reversed. Because Chinese mainland is close by, while the US main bases are far away.

In fact, many things regarding grand strategy is actually counter-intuitive.

One thing is that it is commonly believed by common folks that Trump's easing of traditional (Democrat/Establishment) pressure on Russia is bad news for China. While in reality, China would love to see Trump divert pressure from Russia. Because in a dire state, Russia will be a lot more likely to be forced by the US pressure to compromises on the Sino-Russia de-facto alliance. This is would be much more disastrous for China, because this will mean China will have to fight a two front war/confrontation. This would be much much more costly than just to have Businessman Trump throwing out his joke of a so-called "maximum pressure" (it might work in business, but this fool doesn't know anything about real war), which is nothing but gimmicky tricks to intimidate business partners and construction teams made up by Mexican/Latino workers.

In fact, I would say that the Red Sea and Russia (and Central Asia) are the two main weakness for China. If anything bad happened in Red Sea aiming at China, it would be almost forbiddingly costly for China to deal with. If anything happens in Russia (Russia getting Color-Rev'ed, or balkanized), China's entire strategic situation would drastically worsen.

Therefore, and US effort to destroy Iran, and/or Russia, should be seen as precursor to US starting a final war to finish off China. If Iran or Russia got destroyed by the US, China would be pretty much done for. As long as Iran and Russia are still alive, healthy, and friendly towards China, China will persevere.

Sorry to say, the analysis is a load of crap, especially the last para. First US can not destroy Iran [ a 25 years strategic, amongst others, have been signed between China and Iran when China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Iran recently]. US dare not touch Russia, no matter how hard it tried, because it has enough punching power that the US will suffer so horribly that it will rergret of starting a war. As for China, US can play its dirty politiking games to please US internal consumptions such as stirring up troubles in SCS, HK, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, human rights [look at US's] etc....its like a mozzie bite on an elephant. If push comes to shuff, some states of US will be completely annilated and destroyed. China does not want war, but China is not afraid of war!

 

[KenC]

GT warns Philippines military not to hype up the fishing boat issue (this is not something new, but becomes hot potato due to incoming presidential election) , else China will make a strong response.