China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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@Oldschool , the one that is making the noises are the opposition Liberal party, either Democrat nor Republican their policy regarding the Philippine is the same to hold that strategic real estate. We will always be treated as an ex colony how much afar we are from them. Only in Trump that we were given breathing space for Duterte to act independently. During the end of Obama term the former US ambassador Goldberg laid out a plan to oust our President by PEOPLE POWER, as you recall there are massive negative news about him from international press, calling him a killer and the EU and UN wanted to investigate him for human rights, that is the first step the second is for an economic embargo for his crime against humanity by a farcical UNCHR commission, that is why he looked east to China for help (with veto power) famously proclaim his severing of ties to Washington. When Trump won he changed course and if Clinton won we will have a civil war.
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I feel you too. I believe that within many countries in ASEAN, especially The Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Myanmar, Sinophobia is still a serious issue. What you have described to be potentially happening in The Philippines is exactly what happened in Malaysia in 2018. The Pakatan Harapan (PH) Government led by Mahathir ran on an anti-China campaign. Many of the corruption of the ousted PM, Najib is blamed on China. When the PH government took over, they did the unthinkable of cancelling and suspending many Chinese FDI projects. Then they tried to settle the outstanding debts with China by borrowing 'Samurai Bonds' from Japan. China is still perceived as a 'big bad Communist' by the majority of the Malaysian populace. Malaysia never woke up from the Red Scare even till today. Its still in the textbooks and media. This Red Scare + Sinophobia hybrid is very deeply rooted in Malaysian society.
Should China be mad? Absolutely! It had invested billions of Dollars into Malaysia, only to see a newly elected government coming into power and halting almost everything. Not only that, the new mood in Malaysia is quite anti-China. But China never said a word of anger at Malaysia. But what happened to Malaysia after this new anti-China stance? Since 2018, Malaysia's FDI declined by 68%. Its truly astounding. Malaysians blame the global economy, Covid-19, China, etc. But the FDI in Indonesia, Thailand, The Phillipines, Vietnam have increased over the years, in even in Covid-19 times. Many have even exceeded the FDI levels in Malaysia. Why? Because they were not stupid enough to kick Chinese FDI out. Any developing country needs FDI to grow. So by this metric, Malaysia is the most stupid country in ASEAN.
This is Malaysia's reward for pushing back against China, getting left behind in the developing world. Where were the US, Taiwan, Japan, SK, EU, and Australia to save Malaysia? They are reluctant to pursue new FDIs in Malaysia because there is rampant corruption, and Malaysia' wage to productivity ratio is poor. Malaysia is more comparable right now to a South Africa than a Vietnam. Only China would dare do FDI in Malaysia despite the bad reputation, and Malaysians chased them away. And yet, the same old politicians, and the idiotic masses continue their Sinophobia nonsense, while their own country wastes away below their feet. I call this successful brainwashing of a populace by Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese media.
Therefore, China needs not intervene into any smaller country who suddenly elected an anti-China government. If the Philippines elect anti-China fools into power. Let them do it, let them cancel those deals and suffer the consequences. Filipinos will suffer more than the Chinese. If they want to go further to have war with China over some islets, let them feel even more pain. They would have to learn things the hard way.
Agreed. The so peaceful China rise, trying to be friends on the region is not producing results on the region regarding China's position.
This must be the most peaceful rise of a world power and even then so many countries are hostile. I say let China be more aggressive and take the "hit" which is already taking being so peaceful.
Thats why you see all these "aggressive" actions by China now. I mean if you are always accused of being the "bad guy" and the other countries are taking hostile actions as a result of this, then better for China to become a "bad guy" and get some benefits at least
What do you think of the following high speed rail project in Indonesia? The Jakarta-Bandung line built by China Railway Group is scheduled to be opened in 2022. See the following Youtube video:
The line runs a quarter of the length of Indonesia's main island (Java), and has 80 km of elevated structure and 13 tunnels and subgrades.
The line apparently will have the latest Fuxing technology with a top speed of 350 km/hr. If the new line is successful, what effect do you think it will have on anti-China attitudes in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore?
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It won't change the attitude toward China and Chinese in general. The antipathy toward China and Chinese can be traced to variety of causes, One of them is Islam Chinese is consider unclean because they eat pork. Combine with government propaganda of anti Communist it become toxic combination. The other is historic since the Chinese control the private sector of those countries and generally wealthier than the native. There is envy and jealously. Combined with envy and colonial legacy of divide and rule It will be long time before those antipathy subside.
Unlike in Thailand and Philippine there is little mixing between Chinese and Malay each communities live separately
Thanks for offering your perspective. I agree that the religious divide (pork eating) will probably be the hardest to overcome in Indonesia and Malaysia.
However, if the new train stations look anything like those in China, they will probably blow some minds. Indonesian muslims probably won't ever overcome their prejudices, but I suspect they will begin to respect the Chinese. If the new rail line becomes as wildly popular as similar lines are in China -- a high probability, IMHO -- it should influence a lot of Indonesians.
Perhaps Malaysians will be jealous of their neighbor's high speed rail line, and may start to regret their cancellation of the Kuala Lumpur to Singapore link.
Yep. The early 2000s with the unrestricted GDP growth and lax regulations did tremendous harm on China's reputation on the world for low-quality goods.
If it now manages to show that it can export high-quality high-tech goods (something big that the public can see) then it would be a big reputational boost for China
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
You said "If it look like anything in China" Yup that is the problem. High tech transportation require more than building it. It also maintenance intensive and require commitment in money and due diligence to ensure it will operate safely. But the track record of Indonesian airline is not very convincing witness the many accident in Lion air etc. .
China providing high tech transport is double edge sword. I guess in 2000's China sell MA 600 to Indonesia .And the trade minister at that time is Marie Pangestu a Chinese descent. She just happened to be there when the transaction was sealed But she was accused of giving preference to Chinese airplane . See the murky politic in Indonesia and the blame game. Saying she bought a crappy airplane from China. When actually it is due to pilot error
Investigators then turned on the pilot who flew the plane, First Officer Vunpin. First Officer Vunpin have some experiences of delay on moving the power lever to Ground Idle during landing. On the accident flight, he aware to previous experienced and lifted the mechanical power lever stop slots during approach. He realized that he retarded the Power Lever backward at about 70 ft of aircraft altitude and unintentionally entered the Beta Range. Interviews with First Officer Vunpin revealed that he have some experiences of delay on moving the power lever to Ground Idle during landing. This experience became his belief (cognitive). First Officer Vunpin has been planned to do the flight check to be qualified First Officer, and he wanted to prove that he was qualified as a First Officer. Knowing that he had repeated the errors in the past flights, he tried to prove that he had overcome his errors. However, he unintentionally moved the power lever beyond flight idle (behavioral). The aircraft lost lift and subsequently crashed.(p24–25)
Mari pengestu bio. She is now managing director of World bank a Davis graduate and a Nyonya
The same with Chinese governor of Jakarta A Hok who was accused because of many busses by Yuetong suddenly burst into fire
So I will with held the assumption the Jkt - Bdg railway will win China applause
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All this is true but old habits die hard.
IMO, China will need at least a decade to start waning off its low quality goods reputation .