China's SCS Strategy Thread

[voyager1]

The 9 dash line claim, predates even before the UNCLOS. UNCLOS was established in 1980s while the 9 dash line claim was published even before PRC government was founded in 1949.
So the UNCLOS is trying to implement a change to an already defined, claimed and published maritime boundary. Its no wonder why China did not bother to spend or send anybody in the 2016 arbitration. They see it as moot point.

Majority of the smaller countries which have claims in SCS view their claims for economic reasons, like fishing rights, or oil/gas exploration. China on the other hand, when the 9 dash line was claimed and published, did not view it for economic benifits. I mean what level of technology China had in 1947(when the claim was published) for oil offshore exploration? The Chinese leadership at that time had a foresight, that because of the encirclement of US around China, China must have a breathing space in the future conflicts. They view the SCS as strategic, existential claim.


And it is even clearer now. Countries that are very far away from China like UK or US or even France are sending their warships in SCS for lame freedom of navigation reasons and for what? The Chinese remember very well, how much these foreign naval powers incursion can do damage if they dont stand up against them. This is just almost a repeat of the 8 nation alliance invasion in China in the 19th century.

So China must hardened its position in SCS, in order to overcome the humilation it endured from foreign powers for the past 200 years.

Yes thats why is was baffled why China stop building their man-made islands, they built so few.

They should have built at least 15-30 more.in different locations to choke off entry to the SCS and make any naval intrusion there impossible.

I mean when China had already taken a reputation hit due to building their island they should go all the way to the end and build everything rather than this half-job they did

 

[PhSt]

Yes thats why is was baffled why China stop building their man-made islands, they built so few.

They should have built at least 15-30 more.in different locations to choke off entry to the SCS and make any naval intrusion there impossible.

I mean when China had already taken a reputation hit due to building their island they should go all the way to the end and build everything rather than this half-job they did

If the reclamation work that has been postponed is close to Philippine claimed areas, It might be a show of goodwill to current PH leadership. Duterte has worked from the start to improve relations between PH and China, but it would be hard to justify if China displays assertiveness that US propagandists can exploit. If the US successfully installs another stooge in the Philippines like Duterte's predecessor, then China can ramp up construction in the SCS again.

 

[voyager1]

If the reclamation work that has been postponed is close to Philippine claimed areas, It might be a show of goodwill to current PH leadership. Duterte has worked from the start to improve relations between PH and China, but it would be hard to justify if China displays assertiveness that US propagandists can exploit. If the US successfully installs another stooge in the Philippines like Duterte's predecessor, then China can ramp up construction in the SCS again.

But is it neccessary to just build there? don't they have other areas where they can build their islands. No meed to be on edge of the SCS, but somewhere so you can build air defences, communications, small naval bases for UUV and small airfields for UCAV, connect them.with great underwater wall, supply and maintenance bases, anti-ship missile launchers, radars etc.

So.just build your a couple of islands here and a couple there etc and on the end it results in the entire SCS under your control due to how extensive your network is. Especially if it can accommodate UUV and UCAV that significantly upgrades their capabilities

 

[SimaQian]

If the reclamation work that has been postponed is close to Philippine claimed areas, It might be a show of goodwill to current PH leadership. Duterte has worked from the start to improve relations between PH and China, but it would be hard to justify if China displays assertiveness that US propagandists can exploit. If the US successfully installs another stooge in the Philippines like Duterte's predecessor, then China can ramp up construction in the SCS again.

This will likely happen. Its very easy for Philippines to change politicians and flip their policy against China. Given that there is so much American influence in PH, this is a matter of when. That is why China is not commiting more money to be lent to PH, because this political policy shift can easily happen.

 

[HybridHypothesis]

The 9 Dash Line will only be resolved by military force and not through "lawfare" or "the rules based international order" since these "institutions" were designed to manage the affairs of compliant and complacent nations.

It is foolish to think otherwise.

 

[PhSt]

This will likely happen. Its very easy for Philippines to change politicians and flip their policy against China. Given that there is so much American influence in PH, this is a matter of when. That is why China is not commiting more money to be lent to PH, because this political policy shift can easily happen.

It might be unwise for China to just sit idle and let America reverse all the gains in PH/ China partnership during Duterte's term in office. A friendly or at least Neutral PH will give China more wiggle room in its SCS strategy.

Contrary to popular beliefs, Chinese influence is growing in the PH, thanks to its soft power approach.

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However, soft power alone is not sufficient to cement Chinese influence, I suggest an increase in Chinese immigration in the country and more involvement of Chinese Filipinos in politics to help protect their interests.

 

[ansy1968]

It might be unwise for China to just sit idle and let America reverse all the gains in PH/ China partnership during Duterte's term in office. A friendly or at least Neutral PH will give China more wiggle room in its SCS strategy.

bro, Whatever America do or does, the Chinese influence will always be there due to proximity, we're neighbors, if something affect China it will surely affected us. that's why we share each other concern regarding the SCS.

Contrary to popular beliefs, Chinese influence is growing in the PH, thanks to its soft power approach.

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However, soft power alone is not sufficient to cement Chinese influence, I suggest an increase in Chinese immigration in the country and more involvement of Chinese Filipinos in politics to help protect their interests.

No need to bro , it might create tensions as the Chinese immigrants may take away business and jobs from the local, what is needed is integration to the Chinese economy, RCEP is a good first step, allowing more Filipino OFW (workers) is another. I have many friends in the industry who travel and work in China the feed back from their experience is good and that adds up as another form of soft power. And bro if you study the Filipino culture most of it came from China especially the food that's why the Chinese can easily assimilate here and vice versa regarding Filipinos in China.

 

[SimaQian]

Not that China willing to trade SCS islands with Taiwan.

But It's possible US can take SCS manmade island by force. What would China do then? Retake it back?
Paracel island is close to Hainan so Chinese reinforcement can come quickly to defend it but Spratley island too far away.

I think China would retaliate by taking Taiwan.

Or if China does unification with Taiwan by force, US may retaliate by taking SCS manmade islands

US and China had history of trading spots.
Because China participation in Korea war, US decided to defend Taiwan from mainland

Had China not involved in North Korea, US would not defend taiwan from mainland.

And what would be the objective if Americans were to seized Chinese SCS islands if in case Taiwan is reunited to mainland?
Consolation prize?

The Chinese involvement of Korean war was a force decision of the Chinese leadership had to make.
The Korean war was a civil war at first. Its a was of competing ideologies after the Japanese were driven out from the Korean peninsula.
Just when the South Korean forces are about to be annihilated, the Americans and the UN intervened to save the South Korean government.
But their objective goes beyond to drive out the North Koreans from the 38th parallel, they went as far to the Yalu river and bomb Chinese villages along the border. The Chinese leadership in 1950, just 1 year after PRC founding, saw this American incursion in the Korean peninsula as the gravest threat and they had to take action.

For more readings so that we all get educated about the history of the Korean war, here's a link for more information about the Korean war.

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[plawolf]

Not that China willing to trade SCS islands with Taiwan.

But It's possible US can take SCS manmade island by force. What would China do then? Retake it back?
Paracel island is close to Hainan so Chinese reinforcement can come quickly to defend it but Spratley island too far away.

I think China would retaliate by taking Taiwan.

Or if China does unification with Taiwan by force, US may retaliate by taking SCS manmade islands

US and China had history of trading spots.
Because China participation in Korea war, US decided to defend Taiwan from mainland

Had China not involved in North Korea, US would not defend taiwan from mainland.

You might as well suggest China takes Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, because it’s about as likely as the US being able to take China’s SCS islands by force.

Even without any offensive weapons or forces stationed on them, they represent lethal threat to all hostile naval forces operating in the SCS due to the information dominance they give China.

Any US invasion fleet would be detected and tracked long before they are in range to mount a landing against those islands. PLAN fleets would counter deploy and be in position to move in to engage rapidly as soon as the USN ships display any hostile intent. Hell, Chinese AShBMs would have range to engagement directly from the mainland.

The western MSM keep on harping on about how difficult and costly it would be to mount an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, well trying to take any of China’s SCS islands is going to be orders of magnitude more difficult.

Maybe if the USN attacked while China was launching its own invasion of Taiwan they might have a chance if the PLAN didn’t have ship to spare, but even just using AShBMs, there is a pretty good chance of China being able to inflict unacceptably high losses on the attackers, if not defeat the invasion outright.

But the US would only be able to engage either to try to stop the invasion of Taiwan, or to launch its own invasion in the SCS, to try to do both would likely see them defeated in both theatres. So if the US chooses to attack China’s SCS islands instead of try to defeat China’s invasion of Taiwan, China would be happy, as it will be an easy Chinese victory in Taiwan without direct US involvement.

Even if the US does take some islands, China can and well come back with overwhelming force to retake them once it has consolidated its control over Taiwan, only by then the US position in the SCS would be even more untenable since PLA control of Taiwan would massively complicate US supply lines to the SCS, especially from existing US bases in the region.

Basically China would love it if the US was stupid enough to waste its fleets in the purpose build meat grinder if the SCS and leave the PLA in peace to take Taiwan at their leisure. Afterwards the PLA would move in and mop up what’s left in the SCS and retake its islands and then have all the justification they want to make them proper armed to the teeth fortresses.

 

[PhSt]

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Opposition groups are capitalizing on this issue to stroke more anti China sentiments in the country, just recently opposition forces have formed a united front with the aim of toppling Duterte's preferred successor in upcoming elections next year.

Its important to note that the new group has been founded by a trio who are among the country's top Sinophobic personalities. Two of them attempted to file cases against Chinese president Xi Jinping at the ICC back in 2019.

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If the opposition succeeds in seizing power next year, PH and China relations will be back to zero as these personalities are prepared to do everything just to please the desires of their American handlers. China cant afford to sit back and watch Americans install hostile governments in its vicinity just like what America did to Ukraine and Georgia to antagonize Russia.