China's SCS Strategy Thread

[voyager1]

If you can’t distinguish between someone calling out your stupid suggestions with people calling you stupid, that’s your problem not anyone else’s. And your suggestion is stupid. Plain and simple.




China’s 9 dash line pre-dates UNCLOS by decades, and China specifically invoked grandfathering provisions within UNCLOS itself upon ratification to make its 9-dash line outside the consideration of UNCLOS. Those are indispensable historical and legal facts.

So far all you seem to want is for China to unilaterally give colossal concessions without anything in return.

Just why would China ever consider giving up its 9 dash line? It’s negations with ASEAN is on code of conduct and has precisely nothing to do with sovereignty.

China has already achieved its end game in the SCS. It offered a negotiated settlement back during Obama’s days, but the other claimants decided to spit on that deal and instead went with Hillary’s offer to go on a land grabbing frenzy. They were moronic enough to think they can get a better deal through application of force. Don’t come moaning about ‘fairness’ when China pushed back and they finally saw just how hilariously they are outclassed.

Are people still naive enough to believe in UNCLOS international laws and all this stuff?

UNCLOS was created from the powerful western states when China was weak. Now that China is a great power it must have a seat on the table and have influence on these matters.

Obama denied offering China a seat on the table and thats why all this is happening now.
UNCLOS, human rights, "rules based order" are relic of another time.
Now China is becoming too powerful to submit to foreign laws and it could break them in the end if it is not offered a meaningful compromise

 

[Andy1974]

Well, I apologize to the forum for taking up this space with my stupid suggestion.

Could you please suggest what your thoughts of the final SCS outcome might look like. And how we might get there?

 

[FangYuan]

Well, I apologize to the forum for taking up this space with my stupid suggestion.

Could you please suggest what your thoughts of the final SCS outcome might look like. And how we might get there?

The West is patient and wants to negotiate with China, because China is very strong. If China is weak, they will immediately bomb China like Iraq and Syria.

I think this is related to the determination of both sides. War is the only solution. If you don't take the risk, it's best to step back and admit the other side is right. China cannot back down, absolutely cannot. So it depends on the perspective of the West, are they willing to risk a nuclear war with China because some of the islands are 10 thousand kilometers away from them?

 

[SimaQian]

Look, if China takes Taiwan, then gives up its ridiculous 9-dash line claim then it can resolve its issues with SCS states, and that’s all it needs to do.

Please let’s move on.

The 9 dash line China claims predates before the separation of government between the PRC and ROC. The 9 dash line was a strategic counter of US encirclement of China after WW2. After WW2, the Philippines was an American semi colony, the Korean war was raging in an attempt to push american influence in all korean peninsula, plus the american support of the ROC government in Taiwan and South Vietnam. So what will you do if your house is surrounded by your enemies and there is only one escape route(and that is south china sea)?

As long as US continue to their policy of Chinese encirclement, the Chinese position in SCS will even hardened more irrespective if Taiwan reunites with mainland.

 

[Sardaukar20]

The problem is not from the nine-dash line, Taiwan or the South China Sea. Even if China really gives up all its claims, the US and the West will not stop, they want to destroy China completely. This is their foreign policy.

Every negotiation and agreement is meaningless.

​

Correct. The West couldn't care less about territorial disputes in the SCS, and about Taiwan. If China surrenders the SCS, the US will put bases there. If China surrenders Taiwan. Then the West will move on to HK, Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. They'll push for the disintegration of China.

There is already a precedent. Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. What had happened since Russia embraced Western democracy? NATO bases set up in former Warsaw territories, up to Russia's border. Color revolutions non-stop around and within Russia. Russian economy and industry plundered by the West via the IMF, Oligarchs, and shady deals. Islamic terrorism encouraged inside of Russia. Western meddling into Russian politics. Russia still labeled as the "enemy of the free world".

Therefore. There is no need to guess what would happen to China if it concedes to the West to become an "obidient and democratic" nation. No more listening to lies from the West!

 

[HybridHypothesis]

China can do both of these things unilaterally.
China is negotiating with ASEAN on the SCS code of conduct, these are the only parties it needs to deal with, it can ignore America.


Giving up the 9-dash line is not the same as giving up islands or islets.

The ultimate goal is to have a peaceful and stable situation in the SCS, the UNCLOS already ruled about what that might look like.

So what is the end game? I believe it is an SCS which has borders compatible with the UNCLOS rules and a Taiwan that is part of China. China can make that happen all on it’s own, but it would of course include ASEAN.

Can this "intelligent individual' do some basic research on the history of the past 30 years before commenting?

 

[Andy1974]

Well I already apologized and asked for other members views.

 

[Oldschool]

Well I already apologized and asked for other members views.

Not that China willing to trade SCS islands with Taiwan.

But It's possible US can take SCS manmade island by force. What would China do then? Retake it back?
Paracel island is close to Hainan so Chinese reinforcement can come quickly to defend it but Spratley island too far away.

I think China would retaliate by taking Taiwan.

Or if China does unification with Taiwan by force, US may retaliate by taking SCS manmade islands

US and China had history of trading spots.
Because China participation in Korea war, US decided to defend Taiwan from mainland

Had China not involved in North Korea, US would not defend taiwan from mainland.

 

[PhSt]

So what is the end game? I believe it is an SCS which has borders compatible with the UNCLOS rules

IMO this is close to impossible to happen because there are overlapping claims from all sides in the SCS, plus US client countries could easily change their position and ratchet up anti Chinese rhetoric on a whim if Washington demands it.

 

[SimaQian]

IMO this is close to impossible to happen because there are overlapping claims from all sides in the SCS, plus US client countries could easily change their position and ratchet up anti Chinese rhetoric on a whim if Washington demands it.

The 9 dash line claim, predates even before the UNCLOS. UNCLOS was established in 1980s while the 9 dash line claim was published even before PRC government was founded in 1949.
So the UNCLOS is trying to implement a change to an already defined, claimed and published maritime boundary. Its no wonder why China did not bother to spend or send anybody in the 2016 arbitration. They see it as moot point.

Majority of the smaller countries which have claims in SCS view their claims for economic reasons, like fishing rights, or oil/gas exploration. China on the other hand, when the 9 dash line was claimed and published, did not view it for economic benifits. I mean what level of technology China had in 1947(when the claim was published) for oil offshore exploration? The Chinese leadership at that time had a foresight, that because of the encirclement of US around China, China must have a breathing space in the future conflicts. They view the SCS as strategic, existential claim.


And it is even clearer now. Countries that are very far away from China like UK or US or even France are sending their warships in SCS for lame freedom of navigation reasons and for what? The Chinese remember very well, how much these foreign naval powers incursion can do damage if they dont stand up against them. This is just almost a repeat of the 8 nation alliance invasion in China in the 19th century.

So China must hardened its position in SCS, in order to overcome the humilation it endured from foreign powers for the past 200 years.