China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Dolcevita]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

If that is the level of financial expertise available on Taiwanese national TV, I feel pity for Taiwan and all his clients and followers.

 

[localizer]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

When the US Navy kicks off the world’s largest maritime military exercises on Monday, one country that was not invited to the 10-nation drill will be watching with particular interest. Although Rim of the Pacific 2020 will be based in Hawaii, China will be tracking any joint manoeuvres by US friends and allies on the sidelines or after the exercise, especially in the heavily disputed South China Sea. Since last month, when US secretary of state Mike Pompeo declared as illegal China’s vast maritime claims on the South China Sea, over which other countries ranging from Vietnam to the Philippines also claim partial sovereignty, the region has become the focal point of Washington’s strategic rivalry with Beijing. But while the July 13 statement ended the US pretence of neutrality in the South China Sea, some argue it might already be too late to reverse China’s dominance in the region. Since 2012, Beijing has built and militarised a series of artificial islands in the area and, just as worrying, Washington’s oldest ally in the region the Philippines, is showing signs of wavering in the face of Chinese pressure. “How is this rolling back the control China has established through its artificial islands?” said William Choong, an analyst at the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “That would have worked 10 or 20 years ago but not today.” We should not involve ourselves in naval exercises in the South China Sea except in our national water, the 12-mile distance from our shores Delfin Lorenzana, Philippine defence secretary Despite this, the US is trying to match its punchy new rhetoric on the region with action. It has conducted naval operations, sometimes with partners such as Japan and Australia, much more frequently in recent months and recently held a drill involving two aircraft carriers while China’s navy was exercising nearby. Some countries in the region have supported Mr Pompeo’s July statement, such as Vietnam. But the weak spot in the tougher US strategy is proving to be the shifting stance of the Philippines. This month, Delfin Lorenzana, Manila’s normally hawkish defence secretary, ruled the country out of participating in naval exercises in the South China Sea. “President Rodrigo Duterte has a standing order to us, to me, that we should not involve ourselves in naval exercises in the South China Sea except in our national water, the 12-mile distance from our shores,” Mr Lorenzana said. His remarks followed a laconic statement by Mr Duterte that he was unable to assert Manila’s claim to the waters because “China has the arms; we do not”. Security officials in other Asian countries said Manila’s public surrender of its right to free navigation in the contested waters came as a shock. Beijing has long demanded that rival claimants to the South China Sea commit to holding naval drills only within 12 miles of their coasts. “Having the Philippines publicly acquiesce to that raises the prospect that China is making progress towards pushing through their demand,” said one official from a US ally. Washington had been hoping for a more robust response from Manila, particularly as Mr Lorenzana and foreign secretary Teddy Locsin have until recently been using more combative language in regard to China. Mr Lorenzana has publicly endorsed Mr Pompeo’s tougher stance on the region and has called on the Chinese government to comply with a 2016 international arbitration ruling in the Philippines’ favour over the two countries’ maritime claims on the South China Sea. Recommended US foreign policy US hardens stance against China’s claims in South China Sea The Philippines and the US have a mutual defence treaty that Mr Pompeo last year confirmed extended to the South China Sea. Washington was also heartened after Manila suspended a plan to end an agreement governing the visits of US forces to the Philippines. For Washington, the Philippines is important for more than the South China Sea — it is also crucial to the US strategy for competing with China in the wider Indo-Pacific region. China’s development of missiles that can threaten big US bases and aircraft carriers is forcing Washington to consider a new strategy relying on smaller, mobile units. The US Marines have developed an operational concept under which they would spread out to multiple islands in Asia and the Pacific to make it harder for an enemy to find, track and target them. But that could be difficult without access to the Philippines, whose more than 7,000 islands sit between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. “The Marines need to orient themselves towards geographic reality,” said Euan Graham, a security expert at IISS, the defence and security think-tank, in Singapore. “Without the Philippines, this concept is hardly feasible.” Analysts said Manila’s seemingly inconsistent policies on the South China Sea reflected changing political realities, notably the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr Duterte has been courting China and Russia to secure early access to a Covid-19 vaccine. “Duterte made the statement [on exercises in the South China Sea] at the same time he was putting all his money on China giving the Philippines the Covid vaccine,” said Jay Batongbacal, head of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea. “He is trading it [claims in the South China Sea] for the vaccine.”

 

[ansy1968]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

HI localizer,

Duterte made the statement [on exercises in the South China Sea] at the same time he was putting all his money on China giving the Philippines the Covid vaccine,” said Jay Batongbacal, head of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea. “He is trading it [claims in the South China Sea] for the vaccine.”

See this paid political hack had been parroting and he dim himself an expert. People like him is imbedded in govt institution (govt university) and are given more media mileage for anti DUterte propaganda. What is wrong in not joining the exercise, is to lessen the tension and to advance the govt agenda of an independent foreign policy.

The job of government is to look for the well being of its people, so whats wrong is pursuing a vaccine from China. This kind of people are willing to sell us out to please his white master, what a pathetic fool.

 

[CMFDan]

VFA is more than enough. But the US needed "EDCA" in order to bypassed what's in the MDA and VFA... that's to use Philippine Territory to launch or stage attacks against other Countries.

 

[CMFDan]

The US needed the "EDCA" to bypassed the MDA and VFA... to allow them to launch or stage attacks against other Countries.
Re. Duque
Duterte is the puppet master of all his appointed Cabinet heads. Duque's would be replacement shall be no different.

 

[ansy1968]

VFA is more than enough. But the US needed "EDCA" in order to bypassed what's in the MDA and VFA... that's to use Philippine Territory to launch or stage attacks against other Countries.

Hi CMFDan,

Let's put it this way, VFA is for the personel (soft input), while EDCA is for military hardware storage or forward basing( hard input), in this way the American dont have to pay and maintain an expensive bases. Its military equipment is already there in store in our own base. Its a ingenious way of stripping one sovereignty, if America cause trouble in the SCS, our bases will surely be attack and be a victim of war of not our own choosing.

 

[Jono]

be careful with what you guys ask for.
it is easy to invite the devil in, but nigh impossible to see him off.

 

[ansy1968]

The US needed the "EDCA" to bypassed the MDA and VFA... to allow them to launch or stage attacks against other Countries.
Re. Duque
Duterte is the puppet master of all his appointed Cabinet heads. Duque's would be replacement shall be no different.

Hi CMFDan,

Correct, the US need us to absorb the first blow and be the first line of defense for the them, since we are their brown little brother. See how the previous Aquino administration priority lies and we are very generous, we even shoulder the expense for the arbitration case that cost us our main fishing rights and benefit other countries.

Regarding Duterte, he is a politician, he needs expert to run the country. Since his power base is in Davao, he need people outside his sphere of influence to run his govt, and also you appoint people that you trust. Most of the known talent is in Greater Metro Manila. Duque served during the Arroyo administration, his recommendation came from her. He had done well during Arroyo time, but this pandemic seem to much for him to handle.

 

[ansy1968]

be careful with what you guys ask for.
it is easy to invite the devil in, but nigh impossible to see him off.

Hi Jono,

The sin of the past is already haunting us, The legacy of the previous administration. Now with new cold war, we are now the centerpieces of American plan SCS action. That is why Duterte legacy is critical , it shows to the people that their is an alternative plan and it work. Rather than follow the past policy failure.

 

[FireyCross]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

How entrenched are Chinese spies in East Asia countries do you guys think?

It should be easy to spy on Vietnam, Japan, Korea compared to some European country?

I would guess it varies by country, but overall Chinese intelligence is pretty good, including in the west, and I think is often better than the west give it credit for. I'd argue that it's safe to say China has a pretty accurate picture of what decision makers in places like Taiwan and the Koreas, HK and in South-East Asia are privately debating behind closed doors - prob. a bit less so in Japan and Vietnam, but still pretty good.