China's SCS Strategy Thread

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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Very interesting article from valdai discussion club, the author explained how to deal with a declining america, but most interestingly he mentioned that in order to pressure the Chinese leadership and force it to make fatal mistakes trump admin might finally recognise taiwan independence, which is likely in my view, since everything they did so far to bait China to fire the first shot hasn't worked

Now is tsai ing wen stupid enough to declare taiwan independence with the promise of full us support?, and if yes will China take the bait and invades taiwan as Xi Jinping has warned to do so on many occassion? Me thinks China should not go to war even if taiwan declare independence, ( no other countries except five eyes dogs and japan will recognise it anyway) as war is the only thing that will stop China rise and exactly the thing that the us wants the most, China distracted by war unable to focus on internal development. economic sanctions will be enough to bring taiwan to its knees
If the ROC declares independence and the PRC doesn't declare war or simply invade, then there is nothing in China worth fighting for or rising to. Chinese people will either topple the government that backs down from this fight or lose the morale for supporting the country. If China does not defend this basic honor, then all the strength it accumulates is worthless. In the event that the ROC declares independence, the PRC must take the island by force, and under that pretext, it can decide how to mitigate damage. With Hong Kong being reigned in and the ROC reunited, the Chinese nation will be complete again. That's worth any price.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
If the ROC declares independence and the PRC doesn't declare war or simply invade, then there is nothing in China worth fighting for or rising to. Chinese people will either topple the government that backs down from this fight or lose the morale for supporting the country. If China does not defend this basic honor, then all the strength it accumulates is worthless. In the event that the ROC declares independence, the PRC must take the island by force, and under that pretext, it can decide how to mitigate damage. With Hong Kong being reigned in and the ROC reunited, the Chinese nation will be complete again. That's worth any price.
If war with Taiwan is inevitable. I think a pro-China coup must at least be attempted before firing the first shots. If it succeeds, then no hot war is needed to reunify Taiwan; the best scenario. But if it fails, then there would be political turmoil in Taiwan which could divide the country, making it easier to invade. The quicker the capitulation of Taiwan, the better. So that Taiwan's allies don't have time to reinforce them and take the war to WWIII levels.
 

Lethe

Captain
There are options between "do nothing" and "full-scale invasion". These include the seizure of all remaining outlying islands still occupied by ROC forces, destruction of major military assets using strategic rocket forces, and most significantly: blockade.
 

bajingan

Senior Member
If war with Taiwan is inevitable. I think a pro-China coup must at least be attempted before firing the first shots. If it succeeds, then no hot war is needed to reunify Taiwan; the best scenario. But if it fails, then there would be political turmoil in Taiwan which could divide the country, making it easier to invade. The quicker the capitulation of Taiwan, the better. So that Taiwan's allies don't have time to reinforce them and take the war to WWIII levels.

I agree with you on this, asymetric warfare must be attempted first before resorting to full scale invasion
A combination of coup, political assasinations, major cyberwarfare on taiwan infrastructures, economic sanctions and other non conventional "methods" designed not only to bring turmoil and chaos to whole of taiwanese society and but make taiwanese military preoccupied with quelling domestic unrest
These things are not beyond China military capabilities to execute
 

CMFDan

New Member
Registered Member
VFA is a smokescreen. The real deal is EDCA. IMHO.
Duterte's administration have been using confiscated boats and impostoring it to stage "trespassing/incursions" and "poaching".
The case with the Military General backfired on Duterte. The public questioning why bypassed both Dept of Health and Foreign Affairs... imparting negative impression which leads to negative results in surveys.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
VFA is a smokescreen. The real deal is EDCA. IMHO.
Duterte's administration have been using confiscated boats and impostoring it to stage "trespassing/incursions" and "poaching".
The case with the Military General backfired on Duterte. The public questioning why bypassed both Dept of Health and Foreign Affairs... imparting negative impression which leads to negative results in surveys.
Hi CMFDan,

EDCA is anchor on VFA,

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement
Long name:
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SignedApril 28, 2014
Location
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,
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Parties
23px-Flag_of_the_Philippines.svg.png
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23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png
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Language
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The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) is an agreement between the
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and the
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intended to bolster the
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. The agreement allows the United States to rotate troops into the Philippines for extended stays and allows the U.S. to build and operate facilities on Philippine bases, for both American and Philippine forces.
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The US is not allowed to establish any permanent
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.
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It also gives Philippine personnel access to American ships and planes.
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The EDCA is a supplemental agreement to the previous
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. The agreement was signed by Philippine Defense Secretary
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and
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in Manila on April 28, 2014.
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On January 12, 2016, the
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upheld the agreement's constitutionality in a 10–4 vote.
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On July 26, 2016, the Philippine Supreme Court ruled with finality that the agreement is constitutional.
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Evan Medeiros, the
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’s senior director for Asian affairs was quoted in the
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as saying, "This is the most significant defense agreement that we have concluded with the Philippines in decades."
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The
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(VFA) was signed by the governments of the Philippines and the United States in 1998, and came into effect in 1999. This was the first military agreement since the closing of U.S. bases in 1992. The VFA outlined a set of guidelines for the conduct and protection of American troops visiting the Philippines. The Agreement also stipulated the terms and conditions for American military to pass through or land in Philippine territory. The VFA is a reciprocal agreement in that not only does it outline the guidelines for U.S. troops visiting the Philippines but also for Philippine troops visiting the United States.
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The signing of the VFA led to the establishment of annual bilateral
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between the U.S. and the Philippine known as
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, as well as a variety of other cooperative measures.
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The
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training exercises ("shoulder-to-shoulder") are annual military exercises between the U.S. and the Philippines. They are structured to maintain and develop the security relationship between the two countries' armed forces through crisis-action planning, enhanced training to conduct
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operations, and promoting interoperability of the forces.
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hi CMFDan,

On the issue of EDCA yup your correct, the military component is there ,with the storage of munition (possible nuclear) and weapon for use as staging area for US military. It is critically important for operation in the SCS , but without the VFA, the American cannot come and use the Phillippine as a staging point for military operation.

Regarding the boats, we all know the influence of the US is strong in govt institution and certainly in our media, The China peril is being use as a way to discredit Duterte .

Regarding the medicine, The president need to replace our Secretary of health, he is an incompetent fool.
 

CMFDan

New Member
Registered Member
I finally got it. I mix-up VFA and EDCA. It should be... Why the need for an "enhanced agreement" when there's VFA and MDA.
Re. Sec.Duque
IMO. Duterte controls Duque behind the scene.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I finally got it. I mix-up VFA and EDCA. It should be... Why the need for an "enhanced agreement" when there's VFA and MDA.
Re. Sec.Duque
IMO. Duterte controls Duque behind the scene.
Hi CMFDan,

MDT (mutual defense treaty) is an outdated treaty agreed during the cold war in the 50's, that heavily favored the US, Its still valid but it only obliged the US to help if any attack on our main island not on our special economic zone or in the SCS, plus it need the approval of the US congress before any assistance will arrive while we are obligated to automatically support the US. That's why we are use as a staging post for all the US military adventure, see the unfairness of the MDT.

Our 1987 constitution solved that by disallowing any form of foreign bases inside our country. The VFA is form to skirt that prohibition , by the very word itself, It means allowing the US military personnel to use our ports and airfield as a replenish /resupply area or transit point. The EDCA is for the storage of military equipment and ammunition for the sole use of the US, intended for use on the SCS, there are four large arm depot being constructed in luzon, palawan and mindanao.

Now I really am afraid that we are again being use as a sacrificing lamb to be slaughter by the US, we dont have any quarrel with China, and within our history we were never being invaded. I really curse the Aquino administration for selling us out. He is not a nationalist but an oligarch and a fool. Running on the popularity of his parents for being a hero without the intellectual capacity to rule. These is how the US use its influence by intervening in our domestic affair and choosing who will become president.

Now regarding Duque, I think its the other way around, Duterte is not a doctor and his style is to let the expert run the show, the problem is DUque is incompetent.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I agree with you on this, asymetric warfare must be attempted first before resorting to full scale invasion
A combination of coup, political assasinations, major cyberwarfare on taiwan infrastructures, economic sanctions and other non conventional "methods" designed not only to bring turmoil and chaos to whole of taiwanese society and but make taiwanese military preoccupied with quelling domestic unrest
These things are not beyond China military capabilities to execute

You two are delusional. There is no pro-mainland forces in Taiwan.
 
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