China's SCS Strategy Thread

[plawolf]

If Taiwan declares formal independence, China will use force to take back the island. There is no ifs or buts about it, and China will not pussyfoot about with meaningless island grabs or limited strikes. What would be the point of that? No such half-arsed response would suddenly make Taiwan un-declare independence, and China would suffer just as much MSM attacks with such limited strikes as a full blooded invasion, so what would be the point in such a meaningless half measure, other than as a means to excuse not taking Taiwan back? Because that is purely a Taiwan/American wet dream.

No Chinese government that wants to remain in power can afford to not take Taiwan back by military force under such circumstances.

But I don’t think Trump would really risk that. Because unlike SCS islands, Taiwan is of critical importance to the US, not only economically, but also strategically. In addition, with any fight in the SCS, worse case scenario for the US is that the status quo remains if they just drop some bombs and get out of dodge before the Chinese could mount an counter strike. With a Taiwan Scenario, unless the US commits fully, China takes Taiwan. Even if the US commits fully, there is a massive chance China will take Taiwan anyways.

If China takes Taiwan without US direct involvement, China wins with minimal cost. Secures Taiwan which not only gives it an immediate technological boost in a few areas, but much more importantly, completely smashes the first island chain containment. In addition American security assistance are made worthless.

If China takes Taiwan with direct US involvement, it’s even worse for the US, as it’s 7th fleet would be gone, as well as most of its military bases in the region and its cloak of military invulnerability.

There are no upsides to a Taiwan scenario as even if the US does manage to fight off a Chinese invasion, it will come to enormous cost in American lives and military capabilities, and if that should happen, I think China would use nukes rather than give up. Basically Taiwan is a fight that China simply cannot loose and will go to almost any lengths to win if needed.

Trump is a bully, not a zealot, he knows better than to force a nuclear power into a corner, just look at his treatment of North Korea.

If Trump wants a pick a fight with China for domestic political points, he will pick the one that will cost him the least and carry the lowest risks. Taiwan is bottom of that list.

 

[BMEWS]

If Taiwan declares formal independence, China will use force to take back the island. There is no ifs or buts about it, and China will not pussyfoot about with meaningless island grabs or limited strikes. What would be the point of that? No such half-arsed response would suddenly make Taiwan un-declare independence, and China would suffer just as much MSM attacks with such limited strikes as a full blooded invasion, so what would be the point in such a meaningless half measure, other than as a means to excuse not taking Taiwan back? Because that is purely a Taiwan/American wet dream.

No Chinese government that wants to remain in power can afford to not take Taiwan back by military force under such circumstances.

But I don’t think Trump would really risk that. Because unlike SCS islands, Taiwan is of critical importance to the US, not only economically, but also strategically. In addition, with any fight in the SCS, worse case scenario for the US is that the status quo remains if they just drop some bombs and get out of dodge before the Chinese could mount an counter strike. With a Taiwan Scenario, unless the US commits fully, China takes Taiwan. Even if the US commits fully, there is a massive chance China will take Taiwan anyways.

If China takes Taiwan without US direct involvement, China wins with minimal cost. Secures Taiwan which not only gives it an immediate technological boost in a few areas, but much more importantly, completely smashes the first island chain containment. In addition American security assistance are made worthless.

If China takes Taiwan with direct US involvement, it’s even worse for the US, as it’s 7th fleet would be gone, as well as most of its military bases in the region and its cloak of military invulnerability.

There are no upsides to a Taiwan scenario as even if the US does manage to fight off a Chinese invasion, it will come to enormous cost in American lives and military capabilities, and if that should happen, I think China would use nukes rather than give up. Basically Taiwan is a fight that China simply cannot loose and will go to almost any lengths to win if needed.

Trump is a bully, not a zealot, he knows better than to force a nuclear power into a corner, just look at his treatment of North Korea.

If Trump wants a pick a fight with China for domestic political points, he will pick the one that will cost him the least and carry the lowest risks. Taiwan is bottom of that list.

Could be why Trump forced TSMC to build fab in Arizona....

Also if China takes back Tiawan, it opens up the Pacific ocean to China

Trump has true believers like Bannon, Navarro, Pompeo...so I think they will get TW to declare independence before nov election...

 

[FireyCross]

Now is tsai ing wen stupid enough to declare taiwan independence with the promise of full us support?, and if yes will China take the bait and invades taiwan as Xi Jinping has warned to do so on many occassion? Me thinks China should not go to war even if taiwan declare independence, ( no other countries except five eyes dogs and japan will recognise it anyway) as war is the only thing that will stop China rise and exactly the thing that the us wants the most, China distracted by war unable to focus on internal development. economic sanctions will be enough to bring taiwan to its knees

There are no indications that they plan to do so, certainly not to help out the US. Taiwan is good at balancing acts. The fact they are still here after 70 years is testament to that. Taiwan knows that a formal declaration of independence would trigger massive retaliation by China, and also know that in the real world they would be hung out to dry by the USA. Taiwan is pretty happy with the status quo, despite the political posturing for domestic consumption. There are very few real-world benefits they would get from formally declaring independence, and certainly nothing worth fighting WW3 for.

There are options between "do nothing" and "full-scale invasion". These include the seizure of all remaining outlying islands still occupied by ROC forces, destruction of major military assets using strategic rocket forces, and most significantly: blockade.

This 100%. China could get more or less all the real-world benefits from Taiwanese integration by gaining control of some (not even all) of the Taiwanese offshore islands. In the event of independence this could be done militarily, and by avoiding an invasion of the Taiwanese main island, the conflict would be localised. The islands that ideally would be prioritised could be:


* Matsu Islands. Close to the Chinese mainland, but populated, 12,000-13,000. MIlitarily easy but a small island with a fair umber of civilians makes it tricky. Softly softly approach would be needed following suppression of local military units.
* Pratas Island - Strategically important to securing access to the Luzon Strait. No civilian population. This is low hanging fruit.
* Lanyu / Orchid Islands - Strategically important, providing direct access to the Pacific, east of the first island chain. Populated, 5000-6000 people. Difficult, but a big prize.
* Taiping / Itu Aba Island -Largest Spratley island, under Taiwanese control. No civilian population. Remote and hard for Taiwan to support. Low hanging fruit.
* Ludao / Green Island is sparsely populated and offers a further option for direct access to the Pacific, and also control of marine traffic to and for monitoring traffic further up the east coast. If other objectives go well, this could be an additional target, or possibly something to be pursued in diplomatic negotiations after the end of hostilities.

The Kinmen islands, despite their extreme closeness to China itself, are hard targets. They are densely populated, with almost 130,000 people. Messy, bloody fighting in the street with many people dead would be a disaster for morale and make finding a lasting peace and trust with the Taiwanese people almost impossible. I think in a modern media-savvy age, the PRC government would be cautious about it in anything less than a full-scale all out invasion of Taiwan itself. The same would apply to the Penghu islands, though some of the sparsely inhabited / uninhabited small islands on the fringe of the Penghu archipelago might make good targets to help push Taiwan to reach an agreement.

Seeking complete capitulation *without* a full-out invasion is pretty much brexit level wishful thinking, but it would likely lead to either a return to the status quo, with China being able to keep its strategic gains, or ideally try for a "free association" status similar to what the US and Palau have today, which would allow for a lasting, stable peace and security for both sides. I don't see anything to be achieved by full political integration, especially one brought about by brute force. If the example of HK is anything to go by, it's better not to try and open the can of forbidden tuna, and I suspect recent experiences have likely diminished the appetite for that in Beijing, especially given Taiwan is a larger and *much* more complex society than HK.

You two are delusional. There is no pro-mainland forces in Taiwan.

I suspect you are correct in that there are no "pro-mainland" forces, but there are realists. In the event of a limited conflict, if the government refused to come to the table, the realists would almost certainly force their hand, without the PRC having to bite the bullet and go for a full-scale war. It is clear as day that the US wouldn't help Taiwan. No matter what the US government says, the Pentagon just isn't up for fighting WW3 over a small island that isn't defendable in the long-term.

 

[FireyCross]

If Taiwan declares formal independence, China will use force to take back the island. There is no ifs or buts about it, and China will not pussyfoot about with meaningless island grabs or limited strikes. What would be the point of that? No such half-arsed response would suddenly make Taiwan un-declare independence, and China would suffer just as much MSM attacks with such limited strikes as a full blooded invasion, so what would be the point in such a meaningless half measure, other than as a means to excuse not taking Taiwan back? Because that is purely a Taiwan/American wet dream.

The islands are anything other than meaningless. They give china strategic benefits with minimal cost and without the awkward realities of having to deal with civilians in the way. They unlock the pacific and strengthen China's hand over the SCC. There would be a media backlash still, but it would be much less. There will be no pictures of bombed cities and mangled bodies impaled on concrete rebar and children hanging on to dead parents. That's a big win, especially since China will have to live with these civilians on an ongoing basis. And that's before we get to the quagmire that is a full-blown insurgency, which would almost certainly be the fallout of an full scale military occupation of Taiwan proper. If it was a low-cost, low-risk, high-reward scenario, Taiwan would already be part of the PRC.

Taiwan would seek to negotiate in a scenario short of full scale invasion precisely to avoid one. And they are realists. Solutions would be reached.

No Chinese government that wants to remain in power can afford to not take Taiwan back by military force under such circumstances.

More accurately, no Chinese government that wants to remain in power can afford to fail. Anything that gets Taiwan to renounce (or not declare) is the objective - and the way that does that with the least risk of failure is the one to go for. And a full scale invasion carries a high risk of failure, either in terms of a botched invasion (certainly possible given it would be China's first attempt at a major expeditionary force performing mass scale amphibious and airborne assaults, which has a huge number of failure points - it would be full-on D-day level stuff) or an insurgent nightmare. By contrast, taking the outer islands (except Kinmen and Penghu) would be relatively simple, with few failure points, and something the PLAN has at least some prior experience of, limited thought it may be.

If China takes Taiwan with direct US involvement, it’s even worse for the US, as it’s 7th fleet would be gone, as well as most of its military bases in the region and its cloak of military invulnerability.

In the event of a full scale American intervention, it's hard to see any scenario where China would win, other than an extremely protracted war of attrition where China uses superior numbers to bleed the US out, which would carry tremendous domestic political risks. A generation of parents with one child on whom rest all their dreams and expectations wouldn't take it very well when they get said child back in a box of random bits. The same risk exists from an insurgency. An invasion of the Taiwanese main island is too risky for everyone. It'll always be the subject of tough talk, but no real action.

If Trump wants a pick a fight with China for domestic political points, he will pick the one that will cost him the least and carry the lowest risks. Taiwan is bottom of that list.

I 100% agree. No one wants to fight over Taiwan. It'll be more tariffs and trying to get Chinese companies barred from various markets and creating more product scares, and FONOPS nonsense in the SCC.

 

[Jono]

Guys, you need to watch some popular Taiwanese TV talk shows to gauge the public opinions and sentiments regarding cross strait relationship there. As far as I can discern, these are the popular beliefs held by MOST Taiwanese, especially the younger ones.
1, China is backward and poor, and most citizens can't even afford to eat tea leaf flavored eggs,
2, The CCP is corrupt to the core, and communism is inferior to Taiwanese system of governance, and President Xi is a dictator,
3, USA will definitely come to the aid of Taiwan, should a war break out. All Taiwan needs to do is to hold on for about 2 weeks at most,
4, Taiwan is armed with US made superior weaponry, and the PLA has no chance to win against superior equippments and highly trained TW soldiers who are committed to defend their democratic island.

Now that there is a major spat between China and the US, many in TW are tempted to take actual independence steps, no doubt egged on by the US.
The public opinions in the Mainland are also gunning for a fight. The people in the Mainland have access to the TW media too, and are abhorred and alienated by the animosity and antagonism expressed against the Mainland. It has come to a stage when you can say there is no love lost across the strait.
The public opinion in China is summarised by one very sad saying, should war break out " keep the island, but not the inhabitants ".
I am pessimistic about the situation across the strait.

 

[KYli]

Don't overthink about the sentiment in Taiwan especially the young ones. Both young Taiwanese and Hong Kongers have voiced their disdain of China. Often they feel they are superior than mainland people. And they tend to have a view that the world is evolved around them and that the world is very concerned about their plight. At the same time, when asked if they would defend Taiwan or Hong Kong, these same people said no. Most Taiwanese would say they would flee Taiwan if war broke out. Most Hong Kong people say that they would hide in their home if PLA is deployed. It shows how much they care. It also shows deep down they know and fear China. I think we need to understand these people don't have resolve. Their life evolves around selfie, TT, IS and affirmation from peer.

 

[Dolcevita]

Guys, you need to watch some popular Taiwanese TV talk shows to gauge the public opinions and sentiments regarding cross strait relationship there. As far as I can discern, these are the popular beliefs held by MOST Taiwanese, especially the younger ones.
1, China is backward and poor, and most citizens can't even afford to eat tea leaf flavored eggs,
2, The CCP is corrupt to the core, and communism is inferior to Taiwanese system of governance, and President Xi is a dictator,
3, USA will definitely come to the aid of Taiwan, should a war break out. All Taiwan needs to do is to hold on for about 2 weeks at most,
4, Taiwan is armed with US made superior weaponry, and the PLA has no chance to win against superior equippments and highly trained TW soldiers who are committed to defend their democratic island.

Now that there is a major spat between China and the US, many in TW are tempted to take actual independence steps, no doubt egged on by the US.
The public opinions in the Mainland are also gunning for a fight. The people in the Mainland have access to the TW media too, and are abhorred and alienated by the animosity and antagonism expressed against the Mainland. It has come to a stage when you can say there is no love lost across the strait.
The public opinion in China is summarised by one very sad saying, should war break out " keep the island, but not the inhabitants ".
I am pessimistic about the situation across the strait.

WOW. I truly hope you are wrong as this is a very dangerous situation which could ultimately lead to fatal miscalculations. If true, it shows that young Taiwanese have a very poor understanding of current affairs. This is either a result of poor education or intentional miseducation on a national level. I hope you are wrong for their sake.

 

[visitor123]

Taiwan would seek to negotiate in a scenario short of full scale invasion precisely to avoid one. And they are realists. Solutions would be reached.

Negotiate what? If they declare independence, there is nothing to negotiate.

And Taiwan is a small island. We just need to move all the disarmed population somewhere then sweep the entire island inch by inch. Anyone not already relocated will be shot on sight no but, no if. Then when there is no human life remain we let them return and track them individually.

 

[localizer]

WOW. I truly hope you are wrong as this is a very dangerous situation which could ultimately lead to fatal miscalculations. If true, it shows that young Taiwanese have a very poor understanding of current affairs. This is either a result of poor education or intentional miseducation on a national level. I hope you are wrong for their sake.

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How entrenched are Chinese spies in East Asia countries do you guys think?

It should be easy to spy on Vietnam, Japan, Korea compared to some European country?

 

[KenC]

In the event of a full scale American intervention, it's hard to see any scenario where China would win, other than an extremely protracted war of attrition where China uses superior numbers to bleed the US out, which would carry tremendous domestic political risks.

Really! I don't know about that, but even during the Korean war the Chinese could not be beaten down by much superior US army.
In fact it became the forgotten war as far as the US is concerned. The motivation, logistics, productive capacities certainty overwhelmingly in favor of China. Once China has taken over Taiwan, how would US troops be lifted into Taiwan in large numbers to fight land battle?